230
FXUS64 KAMA 301100
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
600 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms could affect the eastern Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandle late this morning through the evening.
Confidence is low that storms will form, but a few isolated cells
would be the most likely outcome.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the western
Panhandles. Recent moisture will mitigate critical fire weather
conditions despite the breezy winds, dry conditions, and warm
temperatures.

Daily thunderstorm chances return Monday through Friday across
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Coverage will vary on a daily
basis as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

As 500 mb heights rise in the short term, cloud coverage will
decrease and high temperatures will increase leading to a mostly
sunny and warm weekend for the combined Panhandles. Moisture and
instability is expected to be favored across the eastern combined
Panhandles today. A few 00Z CAMs suggest late morning showers could
impact our eastern zones and later this afternoon thunderstorms may
form along a north to south oriented surface trough. Confidence and
coverage for convection later today remains low at this time, so the
NBM was left unchanged. Still, if models trends continue to favor
thunderstorms in our east this afternoon, PoPs will need to be
incremented in the next forecast package.

Much higher confidence is in place for Sunday to remain quiet with
no mentionable precipitation across the CWA. High temperatures
should increase to the mid to upper 90s for many locations. A few
100s cannot be ruled out for places along the Canadian River Valley
and Palo Duro Canyon. Relative humidity (RH) should also be low
enough to alleviate heat index concerns both today and Sunday. On
that same note, RH is also low enough to create potential elevated
fire weather concerns today, mainly across the west. Sustained
winds will be southwesterly and may be up to 25 mph this
afternoon. This helps increase the RFTI values, but ERC
percentiles are very low due to residual moisture from previous
rain events.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Weak upper level riding continues through the extended period.
Perturbations off the axis of the ridge will create convective
disturbances for the area. Long range models show a continuation of
moisture surging from the Gulf of America. This monsoonal moisture
will promote daily thunderstorm chances in the FA. Given weak upper
level forcing, coverage of thunderstorms will vary day-by-day, and
severity of storms should be low through the long term period. Both
high and low temperatures are expected to be near or warmer than
average next week. Highs will range in the 80s and 90s, while lows
will range in the 50s and 60s.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Southwest winds should be around 20 gust 30 kts mainly between 17Z
and 00Z Sunday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...03