Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
567 FXUS64 KAMA 280447 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1147 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 - Patchy areas of fog will be possible across the southern Texas Panhandle tonight, with potential for localized areas of dense fog. - Rain showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night through Friday night. There is a low chance for flooding or flash flooding. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return Sunday into Monday. Breezy to windy conditions are looking likely behind a cold front Monday and Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Although the overall signal from model data isn`t terribly convincing, we will be monitoring for localized patches of fog (potentially dense in spots) to develop through the morning hours. Given the amount of moisture in the ground across the Panhandles (especially southern areas), we could see areas of fog develop as winds diminish and temperatures cool to the mid 50s. Any fog or low clouds should burn off not long after sunrise. Panhandle weather should remain relatively benign today and most of Thursday, as most of the CONUS is seeing quasi-zonal flow stretching from coast to coast. Mild and breezy conditions today will reduce to just mild tomorrow, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. A tightening surface pressure gradient this afternoon will keep winds sustained around 10-20 mph gusting around 30 mph at times. As we progress through the day Thursday, troughing is forecast to develop atop the Baja Peninsula. This feature will place increasing southwest flow aloft over the Panhandles, and begin to draw a fetch of moisture northward from what is now Tropical Storm Vance. This increasing saturation in conjunction with initial rounds of mid-level perturbations will begin our next opportunity for rain across portions of the Panhandles. This equates to 30-60% chances for showers and weak storms beginning across primarily our southern counties overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 Our "rags to riches" turnaround in rainfall should continue late this week into next week across the Panhandles, as models persistently indicate an active weather pattern. Increasing lift within south-southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching trough should maintain the influx of enhanced tropical moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), generating widespread showers and embedded weak storms for the Panhandles Friday - Fri night. Rain should gradually diminish through the overnight hours into Saturday, as the passage of the upper level trough axis provides a push of drier mid-level air. Current probabilities for measurable rain remain quite promising across the Panhandles, as there are very few reasons for concern to be found (60-90% POPs area wide). In general though, confidence in receiving beneficial rainfall by Saturday morning is highest to the southeast (40-70% chance for >1" rainfall), and lower for the northwest (10-40% chance for >0.5" rainfall). If you don`t see much rain from this first system, global models show additional chances Sunday night into Monday as another deep trough approaches from the west. This system is projected to have another strong push of moisture from the south being advected to the region, which spells 30-60% rain probabilities for a majority of the CWA. However, there does appear to be greater uncertainty with this system, as models disagree on a few synoptic features. These disagreements primarily hinge on differing tracks and timing of the trough, and potential for a dry slot to infiltrate the region before best lift arrives (like the GFS currently shows). Regardless, it is likely that there will be at least a brief window for showers and storms at some point Sunday night - Monday. Temperatures through the Fri-Mon time frame look to stay quite seasonal in the 60s and 70s, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. We can anticipate a strong cold front to charge over the Panhandles Monday as stout northwest flow aloft on the backside of the latter trough passage stretches over the region. Rapid pressure rises and stacked jet dynamics behind this FROPA spells a solidly windy start to the week Mon & Tue, with sustained northwest winds of 20-30 mph gusting 40 mph or possibly greater both days. This will aid cold air advection to the southern High Plains, but will impact overnight lows more than afternoon highs (lows in the 30s and 40s). Model agreement on synoptic evolution further fractures Tuesday and beyond, but our active pattern may linger through much of next week. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026 VFR conditions are favored at all sites over the next 24 hrs. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10-20 kts with slightly higher gusts at times. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning, especially at KAMA, but confidence in reduced visibility is low at this time. Marginal LLWS is expected overnight, and has been included for all sites. Harrel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...38