148
FXUS64 KAMA 281850
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
150 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Patchy areas of fog will be possible across the southern Texas
  Panhandle tonight, mainly from Amarillo westward, with
  potential for localized areas of dense fog.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday night
  through Friday night. There is a low chance for flooding or
  flash flooding.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return late Sunday into Monday.
  Windy conditions are looking likely behind a cold front Monday
  and Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moderate southwest flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere
combined with daytime mixing is producing breezy/gusty and warm
conditions across the forecast area this afternoon. Another round
of low stratus/fog is likely tonight, but may be more confined to
central/western areas including Amarillo. Dense fog is possible,
although the chances for needing a Dense Fog Advisory are low at
this time. Moisture advection will be the rule Thursday and
especially Thursday night, with thickening clouds. Moderate
probabilities exist for advection-type fog late Thursday night
across a majority of the area. Low temperatures Thursday night
will be well above climo due to cloud cover and Gulf moisture in
the lower levels of the atmosphere.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moisture advection continues Friday with a component of remnant
moisture from what is now Tropical Storm Vance in the far eastern
Pacific. Friday is going to be a wet day, with the onset of
numerous/widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday
morning. PoPs are high Friday, with continuation into Friday night
possible pending the exact timing of a shortwave trough passage
embedded in southwest flow aloft. Look for a break Saturday into
Sunday, before moisture advection ramps back up late Sunday in
advance of an approaching upper low traversing the Intermountain
West. Another wet period is setting up for Sunday night throug
Monday, with possible continuation into Tuesday pending the track
of the upper low ejecting out of the southern Rockies. There is
notable model spread from Monday onward, but a trend toward
cooler, wet and windy conditions early next week is noteworthy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist, except for the
return of IFR cigs and potential fog late tonight. Highest
probabilities for IFR conditions are at KAMA, so have included a
TEMPO group for Thursday morning. Probabilities too low at KGUY
and KDHT for a mention of low stratus/fog this TAF cycle.
Otherwise, breezy/gusty southwest winds will persist through the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99