927
FXUS64 KAMA 310530
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and through
tonight. A few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind
gusts being the primary hazard.

- Thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and early
  evening in the western and southern Texas Panhandle. Strong
  wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

- Triple digit heat may return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

An upper-level ridge is now situated south/southwest of the
Panhandles, but we are seeing temperatures soar into the 90s to low-
100s as of the early afternoon hours. Given that there will be at
least some mid-level forcing, showers and thunderstorms are favored
to develop in far northeastern New Mexico later this afternoon and
move into the Panhandles. Forecast soundings show an inverted-V
profile with a layer of moisture above it. These conditions will be
favorable for strong downdrafts, epitomized by DCAPE values around
1600-1800 J/kg. Effective shear is favored to be somewhat favorable
for storm organization, 25-30 kts (possibly locally higher), despite
being mostly driven by directional shear. Given the winds aloft
leading to a storm motion of 20-25 kts with the high DCAPE values,
thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 70 mph,
possibly higher given a strong enough updraft. Not too concerned
about the aspect of large hail; temperatures aloft are fairly warm,
and instability looks tall and skinny (suggesting slower updrafts)
and MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 1000 J/kg. Additionally, PWATs are
above normal for this time of year, almost entirely due to the
moisture present above the boundary layer. This will encourage
melting hail if hail is able to develop within a storm.
Thunderstorms are favored to continue through the evening and
potentially even through the night before dissipating soon after
Friday`s sunrise.

An outflow boundary may be present across the Panhandles Friday
morning, but it may dissipate before the afternoon. A weak cold
front will move in from the north, potentially as early as the late
morning hours, but certainly through the afternoon. There are some
uncertainties about how far south the front will make it before
stalling out, but the general consensus is somewhere between the
Canadian River Valley and far northwest Texas. The position of the
front will have big implications on where thunderstorms will
develop, which is leading to uncertainty in the forecast for the
Texas Panhandle. If the front stalls out around the Canadian River
Valley, then we could see greater thunderstorm coverage across the
Texas Panhandle. If it pushes further south, then maybe the southern
Texas Panhandle could see a brief window for thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Given local tendencies and decent consistency among
guidance that typically handles fronts well, leaning toward the
latter solution. If thunderstorms do develop in the afternoon, won`t
be able to rule out a wind gust up to 60 mph or higher given very
high DCAPE values. Throughout the afternoon, thunderstorms will
develop on the higher terrain of New Mexico and there is a signal
that they could gradually grow into a cluster or MCS. Depending on
where it develops, this activity could dive southeast into the Texas
Panhandle. There is high uncertainty about this round of
thunderstorms and, not only will it depend on where they initially
develop, but will also depend on the position of the cold front.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The upper-level ridge will significantly shift westward to around
Las Vegas as a positively tilted shortwave moves in from the north
Saturday. There`s a low chance (10-25%)for another round of showers
and thunderstorms in the far western Panhandles on Saturday, but dry
air should be moving into the eastern and potentially central
Panhandles, and this dry air may try to exert some (negative)
influence onto any potential development in the western Panhandles.
The most likely scenario is that most, if not all, of the CWA will
stay dry on Saturday. Temperatures will be merely a few degrees
warmer than normal, a welcomed change from the past week and a half.

The upper-level ridge will begin to extend back toward the east on
Sunday and into early next week. This means we will see temperatures
warm back up into the upper-90s to low-100s with likely dry weather.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Thunderstorms over KDHT to start the TAF period will lead to
possible MVFR conditions, but should quickly return to VFR by 7z.
Elsewhere, mostly VFR conditions for the TAF period, but KDHT and
KAMA could see degraded conditions due to thunderstorms after the
21z period. Prob30s have been noted for this time. Winds will vary
through the TAF period but mainly be in the 10 to 15kt range, but
may gust up to 25kts at times, as we do expect a weak frontal
system to bring more northerly winds in the 12 to 18z time period.


Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...89