752
FXUS64 KAMA 010549
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1249 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

 - Low ceilings and patchy low visibility overnight.

 - Thunderstorms with a posisbility of severe weather late Sunday
   night

 - Windy day for Monday afternoon

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Quiet weather has been observed this evening across the area
although things are changing. Looking for patchy areas of fog
reducing visibilities at times overnight across portions of the
area. Latest model trends suggest that while the fog could be dense
in areas it does not linger for too long. However low ceilings are
likely to develop quickly tonight and continue for a good portion of
the day Sunday. Evening IR satellite imagery showing a strong influx
of moisture into southern CA and AZ into the mountain west states.
Radar imagery showing a large precipitation shield from the LA area
into southern AZ ahead of the trough off the west coast. 80kt
500mb jet in the east Pacific on the back side of the trough will
keep it digging while an 80kt sub tropical jet moves into the
southwestern states. During the day Sunday these systems will
begin to merge and start shifting east. By late Sunday evening the
stronger upper level winds will be moving from NM into west TX
with developing surface low pressure in eastern CO. At the same
time a developing 40kt low level jet from west TX into western KS
will increase. The net effect will be for a rapid increase in wind
shear with a very favorable wind profile across the region late
Sunday into early Monday morning. Strong forcing with diffluent
flow in the mid levels will promote upward motion moving from NM
into west TX overnight. Forecast soundings are showing a very
moist profile with tall skinny cape however shear profiles are
favorable for supercells. CAM`s are showing the development of a
line of thunderstorms across NM by early evening and then racing
to the east. In additon UH tracks are showing some long lived
corridors from NM into west TX overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

As the trough moves east into the central U.S. a belt of stronger
winds will remain across the region on Monday. There is the
potential for strong winds of 45-50 mph Monday afternoon. As the
trough pulls away the gradient will relax and the winds will subside
by Monday evening. The longer range looks potentially active with
another trough moving across the area by mid week and and the
pattern stays relatively active even beyond the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Latest NT Microphysics satellite loop is showing low clouds
increasing and expanding over the OK Panhandle and the eastern TX
Panhandle and beginning now in the Amarillo/Canyon areas. Ceilings
were about 300-400ft at this time. Expecting to see a continued
rapid increase in low clouds over most of the panhandles. There
will also be patchy fog across the area with some locally dense
fog possible at times overnight. Winds will stay generally out of
the south around 10kt. Winds should increase to 15-20kt (with
gusts up to 35kt possible) late Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...54