593
FXUS64 KAMA 301715
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

- Further rain showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for this
  afternoon, evening, and into the overnight hours.

- High moisture will allow for heavy rainfall today and tonight
  that can cause localized flash flooding.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this
  evening.

- Rain chances fall off Sunday through Wednesday with chances
  returning late Wednesday evening into Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Today is slated to be an active weather day as a weather systems
is expected to move across the panhandles from the NW to SE. This
will flair up another round of rain showers and thunderstorms for
this afternoon through to the overnight hours. While this morning
rain showers and thunderstorms have worked over the environment
the increasing amount of sun will allow for the environment to
recover. The big question is just how much it manages to recover.
For the more the environment is able to recovery the higher the
amount and intensity of the afternoon to overnight will be.
Currently the ongoing trends suggest at least a moderate to even
high amount of recovery for the central and southern TX
panhandles. The northern panhandles are more indicative of a low
to moderate recovery. This means that the southern panhandles will
most likely be the most active area for today. Right now the
environment in the central and southern panhandles looks to
recover to 1000 to 2000 J/Kg with some hints that there could be
spots of even higher energy. Furthermore the shear today is most
likely to be in the 30 to 40 kt range with a few higher spots. All
this indicates that there will be vigorous thunderstorms later
today with a low chance that some become severe. If Severe
thunderstorms manage to form the most likely impacts will be large
hail and damaging winds. There could be a mitigating factor for
the severe in that the storms will take time to build up to that
level and become organized. If this take too long then the storms
will have departed south out of the panhandles. Regardless of how
strong the storms become the bulk of the activity will shift
southward so that most of the storms are south of the panhandles
by the early morning hours of Sunday. There is a moderate to high
chance for more isolated thunderstorm activity within the
panhandles to the mid morning hours of Sunday. Then increasingly
stable and a little drier conditions will see the end of the rain
showers and thunderstorms during the mid morning hours of Sunday.
Overall Sunday will most likely be a more stable day with low
amounts of instability. This will greatly curtail any activity
with a very low chance that Sunday will produce isolated rain
showers and thunderstorms.

Flooding is a concern for today see the hydro section for more
details.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Monday through Wednesday is shaping up to be a period of generally
calmer weather as it will be very unlikely for a weather system to
pass across the region. So even with moisture lingering across the
panhandles there will not be anything to take advantage of it to
form organized rain showers and thunderstorms. Instead we will
have to rely just on daytime heating to spark off the rain showers
and thunderstorms. While temperatures will be warm for each day
they will have higher chances of not reaching convective
temperature that would form rain showers and thunderstorms. Thus
there is only a very low to low chance for any rain showers and
thunderstorms during this time.

Thursday still has a moderate chance for a large scale weather
system to push a cool front across the southern plains. This
would bring another round of rain showers and thunderstorms to the
panhandles. However there still remains some uncertainty in the
placement and intensity of the cool front which directly impacts
the overall extent and vigor of any of the rain showers and
thunderstorms. So the exact details on the impacts this weather
system will have on the panhandles remain elusive.

Beyond Thursday the pattern for the souther plains has higher odds
than not to be in either a northerly or northwesterly flow. Right
now there is no hints of another weather system moving through the
southern plains. However such a weather pattern is generally
favorable for such an event to take place. So for now it looks
like active weather with rain showers and thunderstorms remains on
the table for the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A bank of low level clouds remains over the panhandles for this
morning that can cause brief MVFR conditions. This deck is lifting
and scattering which will return conditions to VFR. This afternoon
and evening rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to form
in the panhandles. All terminals may be impacted by these with
KAMA having the highest chance, followed by KDHT, and then KGUY.
The rain showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall that can reduce conditions to IFR or worse.
Further, some of the storms may become strong to severe and able
to produce damaging winds and large hail. Currently the threat for
severe storms is highest in the southern panhandles including
KAMA. Following the rain showers and thunderstorms another bank of
low clouds has a moderate chance of developing in the panhandles.
This deck would be capable of producing MVFR to IFR ceilings at
any terminal it impacts. This is most likely at KAMA thus is
reflected in the TAF, while KDHT and KGUY have lower chance thus
it is not reflected in the TAFs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

For today very high moisture remains across the panhandles. This
is still easily seen with the PWATs which are 1.25 in to 1.75 in
across the panhandles. Generally the moisture is higher in the
east and somewhat lower towards the west. To put this moisture into
context this would put the moisture levels in the top 10% to top
1% of moisture content for this time of year. Such significant
moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorm to produce
heavy rainfall. Rain rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour would be
expected within such an environment with the thunderstorms. The
strong to severe thunderstorms would be capable of even higher
rain rates of 4 to 6 inches an hour. The trend being the stronger
the storm the higher the rain rates it will be capable of
producing. Such rain can quickly lead to localized flash flooding
especially in areas that see multiple rounds of rainfall. This
flooding will be occurring late in the day into the overnight
which will make it even harder to detect.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 5 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening
     for TXZ011>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98