814
FXUS64 KAMA 020019
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late tonight with
  potential to see all hazards across the Western Panhandles.

- Chances of more activity remains possible for the Eastern and
  Northern Panhandles Monday afternoon and evening.

- Active pattern continues to hold with more chances at
  precipitation Wednesday and next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

As of this morning present satellite continues see a majority of
the Panhandles socked in with low cloud decks and a few stations
evening reporting some light mist and fog. This activity should
slowly weaken as we get into the late afternoon with skies
becoming more scatter in the west. This cloud cover could become
crucial for the expected activity late tonight as it can limit the
amount instability building across the Panhandles before the
Pacific front arrives around 9 to 10 PM tonight. Still some of
CAMs runs from this morning have suggested MUCAPE values reaching
around 1000 to 1200 J/kg across our far west and south. This
recent trend in values has lead to multiple CAMs now giving us the
potential to develop discrete supercells ahead of the Pacific
front that will eventually merge into the expected squall line.
Regardless, the primary concern continues to be on the high amount
of winds shear present ahead of this front with some models
evening suggesting 0 to 1km wind shear upwards of 30kts. With
values like this in play, the threat of overnight tornadic
activity will be present across the Western Panhandles with
damaging straight-line winds not far behind. What may be our
saving grace however, is the speed of this frontal passage. As
stands multiple CAMs have seen this front pushing through the
Panhandles rather quickly with most of the area looking to be in
the stable environment behind the front as early as 3 AM. Once
that occurs activity will transition more towards showers with
some embedded thunderstorms that could linger past sunrise Monday
morning. From here, more activity is expected to follow later
Monday afternoon with the arrival of actual low-pressure system.
However, most CAMs have this activity limited to showers and
isolated thunderstorms in our north and east with any severe
threat more situated in Western Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

With the full exit of the low pressure system late Monday into
early Tuesday, most models do expected a very brief break in the
form of a passing ridge for Tuesday. This ridge should allow for a
bit of drier conditions for the day as chance of precipitation
drop below 10 percent by sunrise that morning. However,
temperatures will stay cool with afternoon highs in the upper 50s
to 60s for the day. Moving into Wednesday and rest of the work
week does look see the Panhandles return to our active pattern as
models try to force a series of troughs and associated upper-level
lows across the Panhandles. As of this morning, present long-term
models have settled into better agreement on the first of these
troughs with present agreement looking to push in it across late
Wednesday. From here models have seen another ridge build behind
this trough giving us another break to close out the work week.
Beyond this break, models have hinted at another trough following
this weekend. However, there is still a lot of disagreement on the
actual strength of the trough by the time it arrives in the
Panhandles. For now, present ensembles have chances of
precipitation across the Northern Panhandles at around 10 to 30
percent for Wednesday. Meanwhile, the secondary system is only
sitting at around a 10 to 15 percent chances given the still
present uncertainty. Otherwise, look for temperatures to stay on
the cooler side, with afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Aviation concerns this evening and overnight will continue to be
MVFR/IFR cigs and then late this evening a line of strong to
severe thunderstorms racing across the panhandles. In addition
to the cigs and tstms LLWS is likely overnight. Conditions will be
changing rapidly this evening with the approach of the tstms.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...54