433
FXUS64 KAMA 291724
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms are forecasted across the Panhandles
  this evening into tonight and again Saturday night into Sunday.
  Some of these storms could be strong to severe with potential
  for large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding
  both nights.

- A Flood Watch is in effect for tonight due to the threat of
  flash flooding. There is a high chance that another Flood Watch
  will be issued for Saturday night.

&&



.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Today and Saturday will be a an active weather period as there
will a couple of weather systems that pass through the panhandles
during the evening of each day.

Heavy Rainfall is a threat for both today and Saturday see
Hydrology section for more details.

The current cloud shield across the panhandles will slowly lift
and scatter through the early afternoon. This cloud bank will
serve to inhibit rain shower and thunderstorm formation for the
early afternoon as it prevents some of the daytime heating. Come
this evening a weather system will move from NM into the
panhandles. This will bring a round of rain showers and
thunderstorms to the panhandles starting as early as the late
afternoon which will then last into the evening and overnight.
In the western panhandles this weather system will have plenty of
environmental energy to work with as a corridor of 1000-2000 J/Kg
will be present. This corridor does fall off hard in the central
to eastern panhandles dropping to generally less than 500 J/Kg.
For dynamics there is a significant amount of environmental shear
present across the region of around 30-40 kt. This means that the
weather system will be able to produce strong rotating updrafts
in the western panhandles that will be capable of becoming severe.
The main threat from such storms will be large hail and damaging
winds. There is a moderate chance that the storms would congeal
into a line of storms. Such a case would make hail less likely
while making damaging winds more likely. Once these storms move
off the region of high CAPE into low CAPE in the central
panhandles the storms will weaken. The most likely scenario is
that the storms gradually cease as the event turns into a large
shield of stratiform rain. This shield will then dissipate leaving
a low level bank of cloud across the panhandles not too dissimilar
to what is already occurring this morning.

This will set the stage for Saturday which will be a somewhat
repeat of a day when compared to today. The bigger difference for
at least the later morning and afternoon is that there is a higher
chance for a few rain showers and thunderstorms. Then for Saturday
evening another weather system moves across the panhandles in a
more NW to SE or even N to S fashion. This will spark of another
round of rain showers and thunderstorms for the panhandles. The
environment that these storms would form in would also sport a
ribbon of 1000-2000 J/Kg across the central and southern
panhandles in a west to east fashion. There will also be
significant shear present of of 35 kt to 45 kt across the region
as well. There are some indications that there may be pockets of
even higher instability present within the panhandles but these
are uncertain to occur at this time. Such an environment will be
supportive of strong to sever thunderstorms with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threat. Overall for Saturday the
environment is favoring a more linear mode for the majority of
the thunderstorms with a very low chance of more discrete storms
ahead of any lines of storms. The bigger question is exactly where
these storms fully organize and strengthen into a line of storms.
It could take so long to do so that it in fact leaves the
panhandles into northern central TX before it fully organizes.
Once this system departs it will most likely leave another shield
of low clouds over the panhandles for Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Sunday through Wednesday is shaping up to be a period of reduced
activity as there is a high chance that no weather system will be
passing across the panhandles. So even with high moisture
remaining across the region there will be no weather system to
utilize it with organized rain showers and thunderstorms. This
means that heating alone will have to do the job in flaring the
rain showers and thunderstorms. This will leave these days with a
very low to low chance for any rain shower or thunderstorms to
occur. Still if they do manage to occur the high moisture present
will allow them to produce heavy rainfall.

For Thursday there is increasing confidence that a large scale
weather system will push into the southern plains. This would pass
a cold front across the region which would be the focal point for
another round of rain showers and thunderstorms. There remains
uncertainty associated with this system so the details are still
in flux at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

A lager shield of low clouds is slowly lifting and dissipating
across the panhandles currently. While this shield of clouds exist
it will continue to cause IFR to MVFR conditions. Conditions may
briefly improve to VFR following the dissipation of the cloud
shield but this will be short lived. This evening a weather system
moves into the panhandles bringing a band of rain showers and
thunderstorms. These have a high chance of impacting all terminals
this evening into the early overnight hours. The storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall that can reduce conditions to
IFR and worse. There is a low chance that some of the storms will
become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds. Once
these storms pass through a shield of low level clouds will once
again build over the panhandles and all terminals. This will
reduce conditions to mainly IFR. Saturday will have a high chance
of seeing even more rain showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evening that can bring severely reduced conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

For both today and Saturday very high moisture remains across the
panhandles. This is still easily seen with the PWATs which are
1.25 in to 1.75 in across the panhandles for both days. In fact
some pockets as high as 2 inches may occur for either day. To put
this into context this would put the moisture levels in the top
10% to top 1% of moisture content for this time of year. Such
significant moisture will allow any rain shower or thunderstorm
to produce heavy rainfall. Rain rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour
would be expected within such an environment with the
thunderstorms. The strong to severe thunderstorms would be capable
of even higher rain rates of upwards of 4 inches an hour. The
trend being the stronger the storm the higher the rain rates it
will be capable of producing. Such rain can quickly lead to
localized flash flooding especially in areas that see multiple
rounds of rainfall. Further flooding will be occurring late in
the day into the overnight which will make it even harder to
detect.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for
     TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for
     OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98