580
FXUS64 KAMA 072317
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- Low potential for thunderstorms Monday afternoon along a dryline in
  the northeastern panhandles, Low chance for severe with large
  hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of this week with the
  potential for heat illnesses if proper precautions are not taken
  for those that are doing activities outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A ridge of higher pressure is building across the southern plains
today with it remaining across the region through Monday. This will
bring southwesterly to southerly winds across the panhandles that
will bring in generally drier and warmer air. Further heating will
be provided by the subsidence of the high pressure and ample
sunlight of a full summer sun. All of this is causing the much
higher temperatures across the panhandles today with highs in the
90s to 100s. Still the ridge of high pressure is not strong enough
to fully suppress all chances of thunderstorms. A tiny trough looks
to be riding the outer edge of the high pressure and can move across
the northwestern panhandles. This coupled with the hot conditions
can provide sufficient lift to cause an isolated thunderstorm this
afternoon in the northwestern panhandles. Still the chance for such
a storm are very low, so it is far safer to bet against any rain for
today.

Monday the high pressure continues to cause hot conditions across
the panhandles with the highs remaining in the 90s to 100s.
Overall the heat will increase by a few degrees over what the highs
are for today with the hottest areas reaching past 105. This brings
an increased risk of heat illness for the hottest areas such as Palo
Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley. Due to this threat a Heat
Advisory has been issued for these regions. It is encouraged to
drink plenty of fluids and take cooling breaks if you are outdoors
during this heat. During the afternoon hours of Monday a dryline
will most likely setup in the SW to NE fashion across the central to
eastern panhandles. This feature coupled with the ample daytime heat
has a low chance of being able to overcome the suppression of the
ridge sparking off afternoon thunderstorms. If the thunderstorms do
manage to form they will be favorable environment for storm growth
and support a low chance for severe weather. The CAPE available
ranges from 2500-4000 J/kg which will allow for very potent updrafts
that can support large hail formation. The big detractor is the lack
of shear which means the storms will struggle to become organized.
What this means is that the thunderstorms may form quickly and
strongly only to then choke its own updraft with its rain. To sum up
all of this the most likely situation is that no thunderstorms occur
with the suppression of the ridge winning out. Then even if
thunderstorms form most will most likely be vertically stacked and
wont be able to sustain an updraft for long. This leaves the low
chance for a thunderstorm to become strong to severe with its main
threats being large hail and then damaging winds when it
collapses.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The ridge of high pressure remains over the panhandles through
Wednesday but will be actively departing to the east. This will
continue the hot temperatures across the panhandles for Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the 90s to 100s. The hottest spots of Palo
Duro Canyon and the Canadian River Valley will still most likely
reach upwards of 105. This would continue the threat for heat
illness through the midweek and thus may require a Heat Advisory.
Overall it seems likely that Wednesday will be the hottest day of
this heat wave. With such heat remaining across the panhandles there
remains a low chance that it will form an afternoon thunderstorm.

Come Thursday a trough from the northwestern CONUS replaces the
ridge of high pressure as the dominate weather feature across the
southern plains. The departure of the higher pressure will serve to
lessen some of the heating over the panhandles. This will allow for
a small dip in the temperatures but the highs will most likely still
be in the 90s to 100s. It would just be that the risk for heat
illness will drop making it less likely for a Heat Advisory for the
later portions of the week. The arrival of the weather system opens
up the chance that more moisture and unstable conditions can work
its way back across the panhandles. If this occur then the end of
the week can see an uptick in the chances for afternoon and evening
rain showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail during the 00Z TAF period.
Winds may fall to vrb speeds on Monday morning, but is only
reflected in the KDHT TAF where confidence is greatest. The same
goes with LLWS being present from 06-11 Z, but it is only present
in the KAMA TAF due to confidence being the highest.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ008>010-317.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...23