Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
340 FXUS64 KAMA 031110 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 610 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - There is around low chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Gusty winds will be possible with any of this activity, but cannot rule out a rogue wind gust up to 70 mph. - More widespread showers and thunderstorms are favored across the Panhandles, and especially the southern Texas Panhandle, this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 The Panhandles will be sandwiched on the western periphery of a longwave trough over the Eastern US, and the eastern periphery of a ridge over the Western US. Highs today are expected to warm into the 90s. An weak perturbation in the flow aloft, aided by the potential to reach convective temperatures across at least a portion of the area, could allow for a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm to develop in the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show inverted- V signatures with DCAPE values ranging from 1500-1700 J/kg. With weak instability, dry microbursts will be possible with any shower or especially thunderstorm that can develop. Given a forecast forward motion of 20-25 mph in addition to the strong downdraft potential, a rogue wind gust up to 70 mph cannot be ruled out but the chances are very low. Most of this activity should occur in the afternoon hours, but could persist into the evening to some extent. A sub-1000mb surface low is expected to develop in southeastern Colorado on Thursday which will turn winds southwesterly and cause dry air to move into the area. Temperatures warm into the low to mid- 90s across the Panhandles with the exception of the northeast where temperatures may remain around 90 degrees. Once again, an embedded disturbance along with convective temperatures being reached could result in a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. The northern and eastern combined Panhandles seem to be more favored at this time for this activity. DCAPE values are expected to be around 1500-1800 J/kg with a forward motion of around 20 mph, suggesting severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out once again. Any showers or thunderstorms that can develop will likely begin to dissipate as daytime heating fades. The surface low will move off to the east and a cold front will begin to move into the northern Panhandles Thursday night. Breezy/gusty winds are favored due to the tight surface pressure gradient and the 30-40 kt LLJ behind the front. Will leave the NBM winds in the for now, but adjustments will most likely be needed later. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1102 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 A cold front will move through the area throughout Friday. The speed of the cold front will play a big role in the high temperatures for the day, resulting in fairly high uncertainty in the temperature forecast. However, locations that see the cold front pass through fairly early in the day will likely see highs in the low to mid-70s. It`s entirely plausible that even this is overdone; won`t be surprised if some locations stay in the upper-60s. Meanwhile, moisture associated with current Tropical Storm Lorena, now in the eastern Pacific, is expected to begin to move into west Texas. A disturbance originating from southwest Texas could begin to work into the southern Texas Panhandle Friday night, but models are in disagreement regarding the speed and track of this feature. The remnants of current Tropical Storm Lorena will potentially work into west Texas this weekend, but model disagreements loom large regarding the behavior of the system (speed, how quick it diminishes, track, etc). Regardless, plentiful moisture will be in place across the Panhandles and any subtle disturbance could be the catalyst for showers and thunderstorms. In any case, it will certainly feel like Fall temperatures well below normal and widespread cloud cover. The NBM is showing highs in the upper-60s to 70s this weekend, but if there is persistent rain or widespread cloud cover through the day, the NBM is too warm. The system should move off to the east by Monday, but early hints are that an additional shortwave troughs in the northwest flow aloft will move into the Panhandles on Monday and Tuesday. The quality of moisture leftover behind the weekend system is in question, but at least low-end precipitation chances seems reasonable. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. The potential exception could be a thunderstorm with erratic winds that could move over any of the TAF sites this afternoon and early evening. However, confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will be variable at 5-10 kts under mostly clear skies. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...29