740
FXUS64 KAMA 171845
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
145 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

-Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through this
 evening, especially for the eastern Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Many surface features to watch as of the latest 17Z surface
observations A notable outflow boundary from convection earlier
this morning in Kansas is moving quickly south toward the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Meanwhile in the Texas Panhandle, a dry line
is mixing to the east, currently in the central combined
Panhandles. Areas out ahead of the front feature SE surface winds
and Td values in the 60s to near 70 degrees in a few locations.
What will likely be setting up ahead of the main area of
thunderstorms later on is a pseudo triple point. This could
result in a few supercells developing within this rich low level
moisture environment of the eastern Panhandles. 0-3 km and 0-6 km
shear of 30-40 kts coupled with CAPE values around 2000-3000 J/kg
with the most aggressive hi-res model will result in a few
supercells that could develop. Large hail up to 2" in diameter
along with 60-70 mph damaging wind gusts will be possible within
this storm mode regime. Cannot completely rule out a tornado with
veering wind profiles near the triple point location. Later today
into the evening hours, along and put ahead of the main cold
front, storms that develop will become linear and form an MCS to
move east- southeast into central Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
Damaging winds along the line that may extend an/or back build
into the northeastern Panhandles can be possible. If storms back
build along a line, we could see also some localized flooding.
Thunderstorms should wrap up across the region by midnight
tonight. Conditions will dry out for all of the Panhandles by
tomorrow. A less than 10% chance of a thunderstorm for the far SE
TX Panhandle tomorrow afternoon if the cold front is hung up.
Otherwise, temperatures return to near average for mid June with
highs in the lower 90s with dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Dry conditions are expected to continue throughout the long term
forecast period. A second ridge will build in across the
Panhandles through the coming weekend, before a potential pattern
change going into early next week. High temperatures will be above
average during this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Winds will be out southwest through 06Z before shifting to
northerly behind passing cold front between 06-12Z. Winds will be
10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts at times.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29