Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
181 FXUS64 KAMA 151136 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 636 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 - Increasing chances for thunderstorms today, encompassing strong wind gusts and flooding as the primary hazards. - Precipitation chances pick up toward the end of the week and into the weekend, with highs that may be down in the 70s to close out the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Lee surface low will track southeast into the northern Panhandles by late morning. This will bring a fairly substantial cold front with it and we`ll have north to northwest winds behind the front. That will also result in ample lift that will support scattered to numerous storms across the southwest to northeast Panhandles. Best chance for storms will be around 4pm today along the highway 60 corridor from Hereford to Canadian as this will be when peak heating and limited CIN along that frontal boundary will lead to storm development. This will also lead to a significant difference in highs across the Panhandles. The northwest to the southeast will have differences of nearly 20 degrees, with low 80s in the northwest and over 100 in the far southeast. Rain rates with the storms that form in the afternoon will be pretty substantial as PWAT`s will range from 1.50-1.80" and given the forcing potential with the front, will not rule out strong to severe storms Tuesday evening. Shear is marginal (around 20kts) so there may be some factors against severe weather. Showers and storms will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight, as the front retreats a bit to the northwest, so will the shower activity. So pops will still be in the 30 to 50 percent range for the northwest overnight. As we move into Wednesday the upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will begin to retrograde west and push that warmer and drier air over the Panhandles. Storm chances on Wednesday will be limited to the far western and northern Panhandles. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 With the high over Western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma on Thursday we should be pretty warm and dry for the most part, and highs will once again be in the 90s. There`s a very low chance <20 percent that showers/storms will occur in the far western Panhandle. As we move into Friday a combination of an upper trough from the Pacific Northwest and a closed low tracking into the Gulf from Florida will start to suppress the ridge and draw in some moisture to the western and central Panhandles. We`ll be keeping an eye on just what this next frontal boundary does with the upper trough as it gets closer, and that will bring cooler temperatures and perhaps another round of showers and storms on Saturday. Highs are already progged to be in the 80s to maybe 90 in a few areas on Saturday, with Sunday in mostly 70s as the front will be through. Monday appears to be another mild day similar to Sunday, but there are some models hinting that warmer air may return, so we`ll see. Weber && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026 Impacts to all terminals today and tonight will be based around thunderstorm activity. PROB30 groups have been assigned to all sites with only some minor changes from the previous 06Z iterations. A wind change from SW to NE is expected at KDHT and KGUY as a cold front moves through those areas today. The front is expected to stall before it can arrive at KAMA. Tomorrow morning, the potential for low ceilings in the wake of the dissipating storms is increasing. MVFR conditions may impact KGUY and KDHT before 12Z Wednesday, as a result. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...55