Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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617
FXUS64 KAMA 151742
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Increasing chances for thunderstorms today, encompassing strong
  wind gusts and flooding as the primary hazards.

- Precipitation chances pick up toward the end of the week and
  into the weekend, with highs that may be down in the 70s to
  close out the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Lee surface low will track southeast into the northern Panhandles
by late morning. This will bring a fairly substantial cold front
with it and we`ll have north to northwest winds behind the front.
That will also result in ample lift that will support scattered to
numerous storms across the southwest to northeast Panhandles.
Best chance for storms will be around 4pm today along the highway
60 corridor from Hereford to Canadian as this will be when peak
heating and limited CIN along that frontal boundary will lead to
storm development. This will also lead to a significant difference
in highs across the Panhandles. The northwest to the southeast
will have differences of nearly 20 degrees, with low 80s in the
northwest and over 100 in the far southeast. Rain rates with the
storms that form in the afternoon will be pretty substantial as
PWAT`s will range from 1.50-1.80" and given the forcing potential
with the front, will not rule out strong to severe storms Tuesday
evening. Shear is marginal (around 20kts) so there may be some
factors against severe weather. Showers and storms will likely
continue through the evening and into the overnight, as the front
retreats a bit to the northwest, so will the shower activity. So
pops will still be in the 30 to 50 percent range for the northwest
overnight. As we move into Wednesday the upper level ridge over
the Mississippi Valley will begin to retrograde west and push that
warmer and drier air over the Panhandles. Storm chances on
Wednesday will be limited to the far western and northern
Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

With the high over Western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma on Thursday
we should be pretty warm and dry for the most part, and highs will
once again be in the 90s.  There`s a very low chance <20 percent
that showers/storms will occur in the far western Panhandle. As we
move into Friday a combination of an upper trough from the Pacific
Northwest and a closed low tracking into the Gulf from Florida will
start to suppress the ridge and draw in some moisture to the western
and central Panhandles.  We`ll be keeping an eye on just what this
next frontal boundary does with the upper trough as it gets closer,
and that will bring cooler temperatures and perhaps another round of
showers and storms on Saturday.  Highs are already progged to be in
the 80s to maybe 90 in a few areas on Saturday, with Sunday in
mostly 70s as the front will be through.  Monday appears to be
another mild day similar to Sunday, but there are some models
hinting that warmer air may return, so we`ll see.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period,
except at KDHT where conditions will likely drop to MVFR from
11-14Z due to low ceilings behind the cold front (BKN018). A
PROB30 for thunderstorms has been added at KAMA from 21-23Z, with
rain and showers persisting until 09Z. KDHT also has prevailing
showers in the TAF from 07-11Z, where ceilings may drop as well.
Winds have already shifted at KGUY and KDHT, and will likely shift
at KAMA in the next couple hours, before becoming variable behind
the cold front for much of the 18Z TAF period.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...23