675
FXUS64 KAMA 151843
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
143 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Thunderstorms likely (60-80%) across the entirety of the
Panhandles today. Flooding will be the primary hazard, along with
the chance for strong wind gusts.

- Best chances for thunderstorms returning are on Friday, along the
western and north-central Panhandles.

- Looking at a possible pattern shift this weekend, bring rain
  chances and cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A cold front is currently working its way through the Panhandles,
moving southeast at around 20 kts. Behind (north) of this cold
front, winds are turning from southwesterly to north or
northwesterly. The front will continue its progress southeasterly,
initiating thunderstorms around mid-afternoon (3-4 PM). Initiation
is expected due to daytime heating reaching its maxima, and winds in
front (south) of the cold front turn more southerly to
southeasterly. This will tighten the thermal gradient across the
boundary and enhance convergence along it, providing substantial
lifting along the cold front. A residual surface boundary from
yesterdays thunderstorm activity is still in place just south of the
highway 60 corridor, which will likely interact with the cold front
and assist with initiation. Current prognosis of the position of the
cold front from many computer models is on the slow side, as the
current position of the front is further southeast than most models
have it currently positioned.

1000-1400 J/kg of MLCAPE, but lacking bulk shear will likely lead to
clusters of thunderstorms forming along the boundary, growing
upscale as they move northeast around 20 kts. There could be some
better shear along the boundary, but storms being able to utilize
that shear will depend heavily on their initiation axis relative to
the boundary. DCAPE values are expected to remain moderate, around
700-1000 J/kg, which will likely hinder the severe wind threat.
However, with storm motion taken into account, a marginal severe
wind threat remains with stronger cells along the boundary. PWAT
values rank above the 99th percentile along the boundary for this
time of year in the Panhandles, varying from 1.5-1.8". PWATS working
in tandem with storm motions around 20 kts and partially training
storm motion vectors in regards to the boundary orientation lead to
the primary hazard of todays storms being flooding. Flooding threat
will be highest all along the boundary, but along the highway 60
corridor between Amarillo and Pampa will likely see the most amount
of training with the best rain producing storms. Some elevated
terrain induced showers and possibly thunderstorms could make their
way into the northwestern Panhandles later this evening, from 6-9
PM. However, these storms will move into a capped environment as
they progress northeast off the higher terrain that initiates them,
so intensity is questionable by the time they make it to the
Panhandles. As the frontal boundary retreats back north, rain will
likely, bringing rain to the northern Panhandles later tonight after
midnight.

Wednesday, temperatures will vary from the mid-80`s in the northwest
to the mid-90`s in the southeast. Upper-level flow shift more
southerly, keeping most of the monsoonal moisture and elevated
showers from New Mexico west of the Panhandles. The far western
combined panhandles could see some precipitation, but chances are
currently low (10-20%).

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Thursday seems to be more of the same story as Wednesday, dry with
temperatures in the low 90`s and very low (~10%) precipitation
chances in the far western Panhandles. Friday, the ridge over the
southeast US begins to flatten out thanks to an upper-level trough
propagating eastward across the central US. This allow for
southwesterly upper-level flow to return to the Panhandles, allowing
lee-side cyclogenesis to develop a surface low-pressure in eastern
Colorado that would drape a surface moisture boundary across the
Panhandles. Precipitation chances are still uncertain, but they
favor the western and north-central combined Panhandles.

Into the weekend, the upper-level trough continues its eastward
propagation placing the Panhandles in the exit region. This could be
a pattern shift to keep an eye on that could bring widespread rain
chances to the Panhandles over the weekend and a drop in
temperatures as we head into next week. However, uncertainty in the
positioning of the trough as it swings through is still high, and
will have to be monitored in future forecasts.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period,
except at KDHT where conditions will likely drop to MVFR from
11-14Z due to low ceilings behind the cold front (BKN018). A
PROB30 for thunderstorms has been added at KAMA from 21-23Z, with
rain and showers persisting until 09Z. KDHT also has prevailing
showers in the TAF from 07-11Z, where ceilings may drop as well.
Winds have already shifted at KGUY and KDHT, and will likely shift
at KAMA in the next couple hours, before becoming variable behind
the cold front for much of the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23