Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
113 FXUS64 KAMA 071136 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 636 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 - Temperatures will remain above average through the week with moderate to major heat risk for portions of the area - A cold front will bring increased chances for storms to the area Wednesday into Thursday with gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall being the main hazards && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 An area of subsidence and drier mid level air worked its way into the area from the SE under the H5 high center and put a rapid end to the aftn convection that erupted earlier this aftn. The impact was very evident when comparing the 18Z and 00Z sounding at AMA. The high center will really be on the move with the 250 mb high making its way from SW NM all the way to SW Missouri by Tuesday afternoon. The high will move across the Panhandles on this route and will be directly centered over the Panhandles Monday aftn. The h7 moisture axis will just barely clip the far NW Panhandles and given this can`t completely rule out a rouge storm near Cimarron County on Monday, but POPs are only about 10-15 percent in that region with generally 5% or less elsewhere. Slightly higher POPs are forecast across the far NW on Tuesday as the high moves further east and weak S/WVs have potential to interact with an improving moisture axis. This will allow lower end CHC/SCT POPs across the far NW Panhandles late Tue aftn and evening. The h5 high center will provide roughly 594DM heights over the are and this will promote hot days with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 through Tuesday. SFC winds will be a bit more SRLY than SWRLY and this should help keep temps below advisory levels, although some usual hotter locations may get close especially by Tuesday aftn. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026 There is decent agreement in the mid-range models that a trough traversing the NRN plains will suppress the ridge across the Cen MS River valley and parts of the Mid West while pushing a cold front south into the Panhandles by Wed. The high center will then reform across the Desert SW leaving NW flow in place across the area by Thu. With H7 moisture axis building across the area from the west, this provides two potential days for more widespread convection in the area (Wed and Thu). Models seem more focused on Wed for best POPs mainly due to the front and moisture, but the position of the H5 ridge and 596DM heights across the area is a bit concerning despite the high moisture. That said, there is potential for a weak S/WV in the aftn/eve to work into the area, especially if the more agressive ECMWF verifies, and this along with the front and PWs exceeding 1.5 inches should induce at least some storms. By Thursday, the synoptic setup is much better with weaker ridging and stronger S/WV within a better established NW flow. That said, location of the boundary may not be as favorable (we shall see), and if we manage to convect more widespread on Wednesday, atmosphere could be in recovery mode which always increases uncertainty. It feels safe to say that one of the two days will have potential for a more organized convective event, but having significant activity on both days might be a stretch. Which will be the better day is difficult to determine this far out in time. Main threats from storms will be locally heavy rainfall and strong downburst winds. The NBM for this 2-day period indicates a 20-30% chance for 1/2" or more total rainfall across the northern Panhandles and a 10-20 percent chance across the south. As we saw last Tuesday, this does not guarantee the highest QPF will be in the north, but that is where majority of the models show it to be currently. The mid-week front is not expected to make significant progress south of the area before retreating and NBM only briefly and modestly decreases highs. In fact the NBM maintains above normal temps the entire extended period. NBM also maintains a low POP over the weekend, but ensemble solutions are all over the map after mid- week and confidence is low. Models continue to hint at the first significant front of the season the following week, but timing is anywhere from late Sunday (Sep 13th) to the middle of the week days later (or not at all). One thing is certain, the first big front of the fall is going to get lots of attention given the long and hot summer the region has experienced. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Winds will range between southeasterly and southwesterly at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times. Skies will remain mostly clear. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJ LONG TERM....MJ AVIATION...29