753
FXUS64 KAMA 021801
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
101 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis from today through
Sunday.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday
Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

- Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding on today and Wednesday
  across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing in the Oklahoma Panhandle as of
9 AM along an apparently slowly advancing boundary, producing
very heavy rainfall. Advected Layer Precipitable Water satellite
imagery shows that dry air aloft (850mb-500mb) is moving northward
into the Panhandles, which should eventually cause the ongoing
thunderstorms to weaken and dissipate. Forcing will be weak
throughout the day, and with dry air aloft advecting into much of
the Panhandles, barring potentially the western Texas Panhandle,
most of the area should be dry today. Thunderstorms are expected
to develop on the higher terrain in New Mexico and they should
work into the western/northwestern Panhandles later this afternoon
and evening. Forecast soundings in the area show 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE with around 15-30 kts effective shear, indicating the
potential for multicell storms/clusters. This will result in a
low-end chance for strong to severe storms that could produce wind
gusts up to 60 mph and half dollar size hail. There are some
solutions, such as the NAM, which have MLCAPE reaching up to
nearly 3000 J/kg with effective shear around 30-35 kts. If this
were to materialize, the severe threat would be greater in
magnitude. That is a low confidence scenario at this time.

There is uncertainty about how far east the thunderstorms will be
able to make it tonight as guidance suggests that more dry air aloft
will be advecting northward into the southern, central, and northern
Panhandles tonight. Conditions may become more favorable for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms late tonight as some mid-level
forcing begins to infringe and mid-level moisture may potentially
begin to advect into the eastern Panhandles.Accordingly, some CAMs
do hint at convection increasing in coverage later tonight,
potentially along a remnant outflow boundary. The PoPs inhereted
from the NBM for tonight are much too high in the eastern
Panhandles; have cut PoPs back as much as 30% across this area. Will
leave mentionable PoPs in given that there are hints that the
convection could ultimately overcome the dry air intrusion.

Thunderstorms should eventually weaken Wednesday morning leaving a
period of dry weather through a portion of Wednesday. Several
CAMs/mesoscale models (e.g., NAM 3km, WRF-ARW, WRF-NSSL, RRFS, NAM
12km) show a MCV developing from overnight convection which moves
into, or near, the Panhandles through the day. This will be a
feature to watch if it does develop as it will provide extra lift,
especially near the MCV itself. With that said, this is a very low
confidence scenario as models always struggle with when/where the
MCV develops and how it tracks; especially in this weak flow regime.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon across the
Panhandles, and if a MCV does develop, then the higher confidence in
thunderstorm coverage will be near and east of the MCV and lower to
the west (subsidence). Overall moisture through the troposphere is
expected to be quiite robust with dew points in the upper-50s to
mid/upper-60s and PWATs around 1.2" to 1.7". The warm and moist
conditions will allow MLCAPE to rise to 2000-3000 J/kg, but
effective shear values are forecast to be pitiful (10-20 kts).
Single cells to multicells will be possible with wind gusts up to 60
mph and quarter size hail. MCVs can locally enhance wind shear if
strong enough, so won`t rule out the possibility of shear being
slightly stronger than described. Heavy to very heavy rain can be
expected with any thunderstorm. Flash flooding will be possible for
locations that see training thunderstorms or multiple rounds of
thunderstorms in quick succession. Through the next 36 hours, a
handful of operational models (mesoscale, global, and CAMs) suggest
there will be a band of rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with a
bullseye perhaps exceeding that. Will not be surprised if this does
pan out somewhere in the central or eastern combined Panhandles.

Showers and thunderstorms should continue through the evening and
potentially into the overnight period, but the severe thunderstorm
threat should diminish before Midnight.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Will not be able to rule out the possibility that a shower or
thunderstorm will still be ongoing Thursday morning, but dry weather
should prevail for most of the morning and a portion of the
afternoon. Clouds will likely linger nonetheless which could
complicate the temperature forecast. Depending on when/if clouds
clear, showers and thunderstorms may develop in the Panhandles or
ultimately move in from New Mexico. However, it is entirely possible
that clouds linger and most will see a mild and dry day under
stubborn cloud cover and/or subsidence.

A closed upper-level trough over Mexico will start to inch
northeastward Thursday night into Friday. We will continue to see
weak perturbations in the mid-level flow which will continue to lead
to daily thunderstorm chances on Friday. By Saturday, the upper-
level trough is favored to pass the Panhandles to the east. If this
happens, then thunderstorm chances may be lower than the NBM is
suggesting.

Highs in the upper-80s to low-90s are favored to return on Sunday
with some shower and thunderstorm chances lingering in the east.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
There is a low chance for thunderstorms in the next few hours in
Amarillo, and in Dalhart and Guymon later this afternoon and
evening. There is very low confidence in thunderstorms through
tonight, but it is possible at all terminals especially for
Dalhart and Guymon.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52