223
FXUS64 KAMA 212327
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
627 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Thunderstorm chances are highest across the entire combined
  Panhandles this Wednesday and Thursday. Chances for excessive
  rainfall that could lead to flash flooding are increasing,
  mainly across the western combined Panhandles.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Afternoon cloud coverage continues to decrease across the CWA.
Patches of this morning`s low level clouds still exist in the
southern Texas Panhandle, but convection has finally eroded and
moved east out of our area. This evening, rain chances continue to
decrease. This is due to another frontal boundary traversing
through the region and it continues to move into the Southern
Plains at the time of this writing. This boundary will act as an
axis for convection to develop off of later today, but CAMs are
catching on to the notion that these storms may stay completely
south of our FA; perhaps only affecting the southern Texas
Panhandle at worst.

Tonight, spotty showers and low cloud may generate over portions
of the combined Panhandles. Where exactly these showers will form
is still a bit uncertain since upper-level vorticity and the low
level jet are relatively weak over the region Tuesday soring. As
a result, impacts from early morning rainfall will be quite
limited. This abundant surface moisture should, at the very least,
allow cloud cover to be widespread over the CWA tonight and
Tuesday morning.

Tomorrow, highs should range again from the mid 70s to lower 80s,
with 80s more favored across our eastern zones. Afternoon
thunderstorm activity should be limited to the far western
Panhandles, due to forcing and moisture profiles being stronger
across New Mexico rather than further east. It won`t be until
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when the Panhandle region
will be more in play.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

No major changes were made to the long term forecast period. High
pressure remains centered, as mentioned, over the Texas and
Louisiana gulf coast, while the axis of the ridge extends into
portions of the central Great Plains. PoPs for the rest of the
continue to show likely (>55%) precipitation over much of the
area, but rain chances still have room to decrease in the coming
days due to uncertainties regarding storm mode. This weekend into
early next week, the weather pattern may shift back to drier and
warmer conditions as high pressure moves more overhead of the
region. We`ll have to wait for our next cold front to drop our
temperatures back down to being average or below average.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the 00Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Will see MVFR and at times IFR cigs at all TAF sites
roughly between 10-16/1&Z before VFR cigs return to all TAF sites
afterwards. Winds will range from east-southeasterly and
southeasterly at 5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29