377
FXUS64 KAMA 302321
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
621 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon into evening in the eastern
  Panhandles.

- Daily shower/thunderstorm chances return on Monday and persist
  through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A negatively tilted upper-level trough extending from NW Colorado to
SW Texas is supporting the development of a surface low-pressure in
eastern CO/western KS. A dryline extending from the surface low will
orient itself from NNE to SSW across the eastern combined Panhandles
this afternoon, with 60+ degree surface dewpoints on the eastern
side. 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE favors a very unstable airmass, but
lacking shear (25-35 kts 0-6 km bulk shear) and questionable forcing
along the dryline will lead to an storm development being isolated
across the eastern CWA. But, as daytime heating mixes out capping
and winds on the eastern side of the dryline back (enhancing
surface convergence) will be key elements to monitor for convective
initiation during the afternoon hours today.

Increasing 500 millibar heights will inhibit cloud coverage and PoP
chances on Sunday, while allowing for temperatures to increase. Max
temperatures in the 100`s cannot be ruled out Sunday and Monday in
some places, however, low relative humidities will keep Heat Risk
moderate at the highest. A weak front will shift winds from SW to N
on Sunday morning, but winds will shift back out of the south by the
end of the day Sunday.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Monday, PoP chances return to the Panhandles as the wind shift back
to SSE on Sunday allows for moisture to return to the area. Current
information suggests the best chance for low-level convergence to
initiate precipitation is in the northern CWA. However, the
instability and shear are displaced from the Panhandles, so
intensity and storm mode are uncertain.

Persistent but weak upper-level ridging will allow for moisture to
remain in the Panhandles through the long-term. Through the
beginning of the long-term forecast period precipitation seems to
persist, so although thunderstorms are possible each day, severity
could be dampened by persistent cloud coverage. upper level ridging
will likely keep shear to a minimum (possible enhanced flow on
Wednesday), which will also dampen severe chances through the
forecast period. However, toward the end of the forecast period, it
points toward us returning to a pattern of daily thunderstorm
chances with clouds clearing in the daytime hours. This could allow
for severe chances to possibly increase toward the end of the week.
Daily maximum temperatures are expected to fall slightly from this
weekend beginning Tuesday. High temperatures will only bottom out in
the high-70`s to mid-80`s on Wednesday, before beginning to trend
upward again.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions continue at all sites for the next 24 hours. This
evening`s thunderstorm activity is not expected to impact any
site since all terminals are on the dry side of the surface
trough. Strong southwest winds will continue through sunset and
finally become light for the night time hours. From then and
onward, light winds are expected to prevail for the rest of the
period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...55