Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
092 FXUS64 KAMA 152320 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 620 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - Slightly cooler temperatures expected to end the work week with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s. - Low chances of showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday night in to Friday afternoon for the Southeastern Texas Panhandles. - Warming trend returns this weekend with potential to see triple digit temperatures next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Upper-level high pressure continues to hold well northeast of the Panhandles this afternoon with most models expecting it to start its decent southeast. Meanwhile to our south, models are getting a bit more clarity on a weak low forming over Western Texas. Under this pattern, most models and observations today have seen the Panhandles under a more southeasterly flow at the surface. In most cases southeasterly flow generally leads to more moisture being pushed into the area from the gulf and better chances for showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. However, a look at the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere show that there is still quite a bit of dry air still present that is keeping us from using this moisture today. As it stands, the present conditions would need a decent lifting mechanism beyond convective heating to bust through the present cap and start storms. Unfortunately, this same weather pattern has also been inhibiting any such lifting mechanism from entering the Panhandles, with our current best bet being a rouge outflow boundary moving in from the far south. Given all that is stacked against us, chances of storms is expected be less than 10 percent for today. Moving into Thursday, most CAMS see similar problems for storm chances that afternoon as we see today. However, as we head into the overnight period and Friday, most CAMS do see the low start to shift further northwest as the high starts to settle in the Southeastern United States. This movement will help amplify our flow at the surface and in turn see a strong push of moisture into the Panhandles. As it stands, CAMS are seeing most of the Panhandles PWATS rise above 1.5 inches with the far southeast upwards of 1.75 to 1.9 inches by Friday afternoon. With PWAT values this high, any storm that does develop would pose the risk of producing very heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. However, we would still need a method of dealing with the cap as most models dont see the mid to upper-level dry air moving out any time soon. Thankfully, most CAMS do see a little northerly push also accompanying the low, which could be enough to see the Southeast Texas Panhandles see storms early Friday morning into that afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures look to decrease further with this influx of moisture with afternoon high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s for both Thursday and Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Upper-level pattern does look like it will begin to shift once again as we head into the weekend and next week. Currently present model agreement see the weak upper-level low break down in favor of a much stronger ridge and high pressure system. This ridge will make quick work of any present moisture over the Panhandles with chances of showers dropping below 10 percent by Saturday with Sunday and the rest of the week fairing no better. This high pressure will also see temperatures begin to warm with most of the Panhandles back in the low to mid 90s this weekend. Unfortunately this trend will continue into next week with afternoon high temperatures once again threatening to reach the triple digits. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a low chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. The chances of these impacting any terminal are too low to be reflected in the current TAFs. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...98