Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
254 FXUS64 KAMA 142254 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 554 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 - Quiet weather is expected most of the week, with very low chances for pop up storms any given day. - High temperatures this week remain slightly below average in the 80s to mid 90s, before warming this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 We are in the middle of a rare stretch of rather comfortable mid- July weather across the Panhandles thanks to the Rex Block pattern aloft. While the Great Lakes states grapple with triple digit heat, and the Texas Hill Country/Rio Grande Valley fight dangerous flooding rains, our region is left in between with near to below average temperatures and low rain chances. This equates to highs in the mid 80s to low 90s today and tomorrow, with only ~10% chances for stray pop-up storms. Overnight lows stay in the 60s the next couple nights with 10-15 mph southeast winds during the day. Morning runs of hi-res CAMs mostly suggest today should be dry, but a few more aggressive models show that a brief influx of better 700mb theta-e could spark a rogue storm cell or two across the eastern Panhandles this afternoon-evening. This should be a very low chance (<15%) with a brief window of opportunity, before a large area of negative vorticity pushes over the Panhandles overnight. Tomorrow afternoon will be very similar in terms of storm chances, although a slightly more defined perturbation will move in to provide a potential kick start for activity (still only 10-15% chance of very small, isolated cells). Conditions will not be very favorable for storms to become severe either day, but gusty winds and heavy downpours would still be possible. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 Quiet and mild weather remains the more likely scenario to end the work week into the weekend based on the projected synoptic pattern. Even though global models shift the upper level low currently over the Gulf Coast states further west over the Southern Plains, storm chances remain very low most days. This feature would advect higher moisture content to the region, but its position relative to the Panhandles would mostly favor the southern TX Panhandle for any slim storm chances (15-30% POPs Thu & Fri). If the low shifts north or south at all, this may provide better lift to more of the region, but the GFS and ECMWF begin to disagree on synoptic evolution as early as this Friday. This data disagreement continues next week, although global models all roughly depict ridging aloft regaining its grip over the High Plains. A warming trend will ensue, with afternoon highs rising back to the upper 90s to near triple digits next week. Perusing ensemble members reveals that the Euro is by far the most excited for rain potential next week, while the GFS and Canadian are starting to latch onto relatively drier outlooks heading through the long term period. Either way, rain chances can`t be ruled out as we continue to avoid any major prolonged heat wave in the heart of Summer. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026 VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a very low chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms anywhere in the panhandles on Tuesday. The chances of these impacting any terminal are to low to be reflected in any TAF. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...98