548
FXUS64 KAMA 111837
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
137 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

- Widespread triple-digit high temperatures continue this week.

- A pattern shift will increase thunderstorm chances as early as
  Thursday and into the weekend for portions of the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

High temperatures in the triple-digits and dry conditions are
expected to prevail over the short term. Upper-level high pressure,
large scale subsidence, and increasing temperatures at 850 mb over
the next couple of days continue to be the story. Minimal chances
(around 10%) for thunderstorms in the western combined Panhandles
continue over the short term as well. There are signals of isolated
showers/thunderstorms in the southwestern TX Panhandle on Wednesday
on the backside of a surface low pressure, accompanied by PVA,
but chances remain low as any precipitation will still be
competing with dry air at both the surface and mid-levels.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Beginning Thursday, we begin to see a pattern shift, with the upper-
level high pressure propagating east of the Panhandles. This will
place our CWA on the western periphery of the ridge in the
southeastern US, where shortwave perturbations will provide better
synoptic scale support across the Panhandles. Beginning Thursday, a
moisture boundary is progged to setup across the southcentral and
eastern Panhandles, where current guidance is trying to initiate
storms across that boundary. Current conditions point toward the
main hazard of these storms being strong winds with DCAPE around
1500-1800 J/kg. Forecasted soundings and forecasted surface
temperatures and dewpoints indicate inverted-V thermodynamic
profiles, which will likely lead to rain evaporating between cloud
bases and the surface. While PWAT values dont point toward
inefficient rain producers, moat precipitation will likely be
contained to the main core of any thunderstorms, meaning any
lightning strikes that occur outside of the main core of a storm
could pose a fire start risk. This could be enhanced by any strong
to severe wind gusts from storms and dry fuels, posing a risk for
fire starts to spread.

Friday and into the weekend, the upper-level high pressure
establishes itself southeast of the Panhandles. The anticyclonic
flow and dry conditions of the high pressure to our southeast, will
entrain dry air into the eastern Panhandles. This will shift our
thunderstorm risk from the central and eastern Panhandles to the
western and northwestern Panhandles as we head into the weekend.
Storm coverage and severity for thee days are still an uncertainty,
as only long-range models are seeing the event window so far.

The pattern is currently progged shuffle hot and dry conditions back
in next week, as the upper-level high pressure retrogrades back
west. This will likely see the return of large scale subsidence and
increasing temperatures once again.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will remain predominantly out of the S ranging from 15-20
kts sustained, gusting up to 25-30 kts throughout Tuesday
afternoon/evening. LLWS is possible, specifically at KAMA and
KGUY, from 06-09Z, however confidence in this outcome is currently
too low to include in TAF`s. Hot temperatures are leading to
increased density altitude at all terminals.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-008>010-
     015-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23