032
FXUS64 KAMA 141132
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

-Favorable weather pattern throughout the coming week for near daily
rain chances, most days favoring the western Panhandles.

-Tuesday`s cold front will have the best chances of
 precipitation, and will not rule out localized flooding as the
 primary concern with storms on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Loss of daytime heating will lead to storms being on a downward
trend overnight.  Still might get some isolated to scattered showers
off of outflow boundaries, but mainly in the north and western
Panhandles.  The main concern today will be tighter surface
gradients from a lee surface low setting up in eastern CO.  This
along with a modest 850/700mb jet over the Panhandles will set up
breezy south to south southwest winds in the 15-25 mph range with
gusts up to 35 mph.  This will be more of a Fire Weather concern as
we still have some very dry fuels out there and this will put
portions of the Panhandles into elevated to near critical Fire
Weather conditions. A low chance of showers/storms in the northwest
Panhandles as isolated to scattered showers off the mountains may
merge into a cluster in the late evening to early overnight hours.
Storms should be pretty tame in the evening as CAPE and DCAPE values
are pretty marginal. Looking at forecast soundings tonight, there`s
a low chance (~20 percent) that these residual showers in the
northwest could result in heat bursts with winds 50 to 60 mph.

As we move into Tuesday that lee surface low will track southeast
into the northern Panhandles by mid to late afternoon.  This will
bring a fairly substantial cold front with it and we`ll have north
to northwest winds behind the front.  That will also result in ample
lift that will support scattered to numerous storms across the
southwest to northeast Panhandles.  Therefore highs will be vastly
different from the northwest to the southeast.  Given the earlier
arrival of the front the northwest Panhandles may be in the low to
mid 80s and the southeast is still looking to be very close, if not
break the 100 degree mark.  We do expect decent rain rates along the
front with the storms as PWAT`s will range from 1.40-1.80" and given
the forcing potential with the front, will not rule out strong to
severe storms Tuesday evening. Shear is still a marginal so there
may be some factors against severe weather.  Showers and storms will
likely continue through the evening and into the overnight, and
winds will eventually shift back out of the south by the late
overnight as the system that brought the front will be far enough to
the east and the upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will
begin to retrograde west and push that warmer and drier air over the
Panhandles.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

With the ridge building west that will bring drier conditions to
portions of the southeast to possibly central Panhandles and the
western Panhandles will still have some moisture available for
storms on Wednesday.  This will be mainly north and west of
an Amarillo to Canadian line.

Thursday through Sunday will be interesting as far as rain chances.
The ridge of high pressure is still tracking further west, as a
closed low undercuts the ridge over FL and into the Gulf (possible
tropical system development down the line).  At the same time the
as this low tracks west toward the northeast Texas coast, another
upper trough will swing in from the Pacific Northwest and start to
really squeeze off this ridge and dissolve it out.  This will bring
increase chances of showers and storms to the Panhandles for the
majority of the extended, but the extent of where and how much
rainfall will occur is still highly in question.  But it sure looks
like a pattern chance to near normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation is on the way to the Panhandles for the extended.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to hold through the 12Z TAF period.
Strong winds, with gusts up to 35 kts, are expected at all sites
through most of the day. The wind direction will start from the
southwest, but may steadily become southerly by the late afternoon
and evening. A PROB30 has been added for KDHT due to persistent
thunderstorm chances at the terminal this evening. Mentions of
thunder may be included at KGUY with future packages, but
confidence remains too low to include them at this time.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55