048
FXUS64 KAMA 191722
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms today with locally heavy
  downpours and lighting being the main threats.

- Heat wave will build through the week with extreme heat risk
  anticipated for much of the area by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Today, the combined Panhandles are staying under easterly flow aloft
while being on the southern fringe of an upper level high
centered over CO into WY. Just to the south of the FA sits a mid
to upper level weak low, which is helping to moderate
temperatures a bit, while also providing some slight chance to
chance PoPs to West Texas. Up here in the Panhandles lifting may
be weak but mid-level atmospheric moisture remains present with a
10 to 20 percent chance for rain across the central to eastern
Panhandles. Just like yesterday MUCAPE is progged to be at least
500 but potentially up to 1000 J/Kg. Unlike yesterday, showers and
storms may be more isolated across the area with less chance of a
lifting mechanism outside of daytime heating. Tomorrow,
conditions return to mostly dry with highs two to three degrees
warmer as high pressure builds in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

High pressure is set to continue to build over the combined
Panhandles in the long term. With this comes much warmer summer
temperatures in the 100s. Starting Tuesday Amarillo is looking at a
high of 99, but Wed onward Amarillo is progged to be 100+. With this
areas like Borger and Palo Duro Canyon will be pushing 105 with the
potential for Heat Advisories especially for the park where impacts
are the greatest. Under the high pressure rain chances will be
minimal in the west to non-existant in the eastern Panhandles. Just
enough monsoonal theta-e may seep into the western Panhandles to
allow at least 10 pops in the western Panhandles where storms will
mostly rely entirely on daytime heating, at least until Friday.

Friday night into Saturday the H5 high is progged to shift to the
west. Putting us in an northwest flow pattern which may lead to the
NW Panhandles receiving storms off the higher terrain. This is
contributing to a 20 to 30 PoP for the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with primarily southerly
winds less than 15 kts. Cannot rule out some isolated showers and
thunderstorms across the combined Panhandles through 00Z Monday.
However, impacts to the terminals are not anticipated at this
time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03