727
FXUS64 KAMA 171725
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Another shot at storms is in store this afternoon and evening,
as well as warm temperatures in the 90s expected once again.
Southwest flow aloft should allow for a deepening lee sfc low
today, with a dry line taking shape somewhere over the western to
central Panhandles this afternoon. Daytime heating and 50s to 60s
dew pts east of the dryline will build up about 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE for thunderstorm development, but notable capping will be a
prominent concern for convective initiation today. If some
scattered storms form, 20-30 kt bulk shear could support organized
updrafts capable of severe wind and hail. With forecast soundings
depicting steep low level lapse rates, ~2000 J/kg DCAPE, and
inverted V signatures, damaging wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard. As we get closer to this afternoon, CAMs are still
split on whether or not the cap can break, lending to only 15-20%
POPs across the western two thirds of the CWA.

Regardless, winds will be noticeably breezier out of the south
this evening into tomorrow, thanks to a tightening pressure
gradient and strengthening low level jet. At their peak expect
20-30 mph sustained winds gusting up to 40 mph at times, gradually
diminishing through tomorrow night. Tomorrow, stronger southwest
winds aloft spread over the Panhandles, bringing a minor
disturbance to the Plains. A cluster of storms is expected to
develop in southwest KS Tue evening along the dryline,
potentially impacting northern portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle
with winds, hail, and heavy rain. Although confidence is higher
that these storms will develop, there`s still uncertainty as to
whether or not they would exist as far south as the OK Panhandle
(15-25% chance). Further south of this area, capping should
remain in place, but we could see additional storms develop if
the cap were to erode. Overnight lows remain on the mild side for
coming nights, only dipping to the 60s and 70s.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Latest 17/00Z model and numerical guidance continues to show
moisture advection from a subtropical disturbance right along the
Texas Gulf Coast. With a predominant H500 high centered over the
Mid Atlantic, in-conjunction with a digging trough over the
western CONUS, the predominant steering flow of the moisture
advection will move towards west Texas. How far north into the
Panhandles the better moisture advection will reach remains in
question. As of the current forecast, the southern and western
combined Panhandles is most favored on the edge of the best
steering flow. Will have to watch the main aforementioned H500
high pressure system extension west into the Panhandles by later
this week, which could suppress moisture advection into the
region.

As of the current forecast, log-p profiles are showing moisture
transport values up to (+)3 S.D. PWAT values in association with
the subtropical system. This could reach near record values for
sounding climatology for AMA with values between 1.6" and 1.8".
With very good moisture in place, along with subtle perturbations
around the periphery of the H700-500 high, showers and
thunderstorms are possible (30-40%), especially for the southern
and western Panhandles. The main broad high pressure should
eventually spread back to the west across the southern High Plains
with the better moisture steering flow across New Mexico. By the
coming weekend, ridge rollers will aid our rain chances for
diurnally driven convection, favoring the northern and western
Panhandles. With rain chances Wed through Fri, temperatures will
be "below" average for late June, but with the humidity streaming
up from the Gulf Coast, it will feel quite muggy. HIgh
temperatures return to above average by this coming weekend
towards the end of the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Breezy to gusty southwesterly surface winds will remain at all the
terminals through the afternoon and evening hours. Potential does
exist for showers and thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon
and early evening with damaging winds being the main threat from
any severe thunderstorm. However, chances of develop remain low
this afternoon (15 to 20% at best) with confidence in any actual
impacts to the terminals too low for any mention in the 18Z
package. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to hold into the
overnight hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                71  92  69  87 /  20  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  72  95  69  89 /  10  10  30  30
Boise City OK              68  97  62  84 /  10  10  20  40
Borger TX                  74  97  72  92 /  20  10  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              71  96  69  89 /  20  10  20  30
Canyon TX                  69  91  67  86 /  20  10  10  20
Clarendon TX               71  90  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 66  98  64  87 /  10  10  20  40
Guymon OK                  70  95  66  87 /  20  10  30  30
Hereford TX                70  95  68  88 /  20  10  10  20
Lipscomb TX                71  93  69  89 /  10   0  20  20
Pampa TX                   71  91  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
Shamrock TX                71  92  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
Wellington TX              72  92  69  87 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11