356
FXUS64 KAMA 021809
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
109 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

-Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through
 tonight, and again tomorrow across the Panhandles.

-Watching for flash flooding potential through the weekend.

-Triple digit high temperatures return the middle of next week
 for some areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The main concern for active weather will be through later this
afternoon into the overnight period. We continue to watch the
position of an H500 high pressure system centered near Tuscon, AZ.
The elongated SW-NE isoheights of the system provides NW steering
flow for the Panhandles of around 30-40 kts later today. Further
northwest, a perturbation in the mean H500 zonal flow moving into
northern Utah will help generate lift for convection across the
central Rockies later this afternoon. With ample sunshine today.
locally we could see some pop up showers and storms out ahead of the
main wave across the central Rockies and/or development in the NM
eastern Plains. Current water vapor analysis does shows deep drier
airmass over the region as of the latest 18Z obs. This shows a
likely cap in place and coupled by limited 0-6 km shear under 30 kts
and CAPE around 500 J/kg, we will likely be waiting for the
organized convection in Colorado to reach the Panhandles later on
today with out much forming ahead of it. However, to note, some
more aggressive model negate the cap and try to form something
earlier on this mid afternoon starting near 00Z for the western
Panhandles, likely due to a subtle perturbation further south in
the main anti- cyclonic flow pattern. Will watch trends closely
early on.

Going from 00-03Z, the main established areas of thunderstorms we
are watching should begin to exit the Rockies as of the latest 02/12-
15Z model and numerical data. Linear and even some multi cell
cluster will be the main storm modes, with overall better
effective 0- 6 km shear increasing to around 35-45 kts around
this time frame for the Panhandles region. Coupled with 1000-2000
J/kg CAPE and a pronounced H850-700 theta-e advection, the main
area of convection moving clockwise around the periphery of the
H500 will move into a region supportive of severe thunderstorms
with damaging wind gusts and large hail, especially within more
discrete updrafts earlier on. As the linear complex of storms
moves further into the Panhandles past 02-03Z, a 30 kt SSW-NNE
H850 jet will be developing, and with its orthogonal flow to the
mean storm motion, there is a very small chance (less than 5%)
that we could see a brief tornado along an MCS or other linear
convective mode potentially. Going past 03Z into the overnight
potential, the main severe weather threat should be damaging
winds. We will also closely watch for the flooding potential,
especially lingering through the overnight hours tonight. Main
storm motion overall should be quick as line of storms moves
through. However, with LLJ in place, additional backbuilding of
thunderstorms is possible which may persist the flooding threat.
PWAT values of 0.9-1.2" will suffice for heavy rainfall dates.
Especially when flooding potential could linger into the overnight
period, please use extra caution with any outdoor plans. This
first round of thunderstorms should wrap up around 12Z tomorrow.

A second round of thunderstorms should develop tomorrow. Similar
to today`s setup. But with the main H500 high shifting a bit
further east, the central and eastern Panhandles should be more
favored for a strong to severe thunderstorms. With more influence
from the high as well, thunderstorm coverage will be a bit more
limited, but the severe weather threat will still be there. High
temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Dry with hot temperatures are expected through the majority of
the long term forecast period as high pressure builds into the
region. High temperatures as hot as 100-105 degrees are possible,
especially by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

PROB30 group introduced within the 06Z to 12Z time period for all
TAF sites for the 18Z TAF period. Watching for TSRA conditions
where erratic winds will be possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period. Winds will
generally range from SE to SW at 5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29