583
FXUS64 KAMA 221930
AFDAMA

FXUS64 KAMA 221710
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
228 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Multi day heavy rain event across New Mexico will impinge on
western areas of the TX/OK panhandles.

- Potential for heavy rain will move into more of the Panhandles
late Wed and Thur. It is important to note not every area will   see
heavy rain.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Visible satellite imagery showing the showers and thunderstorms that
developed this morning continuing to persist from just north of CDS
westward into portions of Palo Duro Canyon and then south to near
PVW. Still expect these to fall apart this afternoon. The latest
satellite and radar data is showing the expected development of
showers/thunderstorms over New Mexico into southern Colorado at this
time...which is the beginning of this heavy rain event. This
mornings upper air analysis showed a mid level 500mb low over
eastern NV with a trough extending south...and a ridge from eastern
TX north into the central plain, with the tropical plume of
moisture in between these two areas. PWAT values will become very
high for this time of year across the area in the next 24-48 hours
and with a well defined shortwave trough moving northeast out of
Mexico overnight and into Wed upward motion will be augmented in
this very moist airmass. Showers and thunderstorms that develop will
be efficient rainfall producers and very heavy rain is expected. The
axis of heaviest rain will be from southern New Mexico north-
northeast into the northwest panhandles on into southwest Kansas.
Total amounts of 4-6" are not out of the question. The heaviest rain
will likely fall in focused corridors over portions of New Mexico
and eventually into the panhandles over the next 48 hours or so.
This means not everyone will see the very heavy rainfall but where
it does fall there could be high impacts. Nevertheless, it does look
likely that many locations will see some precipitation over the next
48-72 hours.

Clouds and precipitation from this morning have kept temperatures
down so far today...especially in the central portions of the
panhandle with temps currently in the mid 70s. Slightly warmer temps
in the low 80s are occurring where there has been more sunshine
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Looking at the GFS for the long range....after the precipitation
ends later on Friday there will be a quiet period before the next
trough dives down the west coast. Sunday into Monday. This trough
could pick up additional moisture from a tropical system in the east
Pacific...however the motion on this will have it brush by our area
on Monday. Temps should rebound into the mid 80s at least.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1:45 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

MVFR cigs at AMA and DHT beginning to lift while VFR and mostly clear
skies are noted at GUY. Winds across the panhandles currently is
generally southeasterly around 10kt and forecast soundings are
showing a relatively deep southerly flow into Wednesday. A plume of
tropical moisture will continue to move north into New Mexico and
across the panhandles leading to MVFR cigs at times, primarily
overnight and into the early morning.


.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...54