345
FXUS64 KAMA 071134
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Low Chance for strong to severe thunderstorms remain present
across the Western Panhandles for Friday.

- Very hot and dry conditions brings increased heat risk and the
potential for elevated fire weather conditions this weekend.

- The potential for thunderstorms in the panhandles returns next
work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A high pressure system remains the dominant weather feature across
the southern plains for the next couple of days. Currently the high
pressure is centered further to the west across the desert southwest
leading to a northwesterly flow aloft over the southern plains. This
flow will allow for small scale weather systems to move across the
flow and impact the panhandles today. For this morning this
allowed a small weather system to pass across the panhandles
leading to the current rain showers and thunderstorms. These are
likely to dissipate by the mid morning hours. Later this afternoon
and evening further weather system are likely to impact the
panhandles introducing a low to medium chance for rain showers
and thunderstorms. The most likely area for these storms to form
up is in better moisture of the central panhandles and then
progress southward. The environment shows CAPE of roughly
1500-2000 J/Kg with shear of 30 to 40 kt. This indicates that
storms will be able to become strong to severe with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threat. These storms are then most
likely to come to an end towards the early morning hours of
Saturday. The high pressure will continue to causes heating across
the southern plains today leading to hot conditions. This will
once again see the highs in the upper 90s to low 100s with the
hottest areas such a Palo Duro Canyon potentially reaching past
105. This bring the specter of heat risk once again so proper
hydration is recommended to stave off heat illness.

On Saturday the high pressure system builds further eastward leading
to the end of the northwest flow. This will cut off the moisture
feed to the panhandles leading to a drier and calmer weather day.
However the repositioning of the high will bring even hotter
conditions to the panhandles as the heating from the high pressure
system increases. This will see the high climb into the 100s across
almost the whole the panhandles and more areas seeing highs past
105. This brings an increasing risk of heat illness to the
panhandles, so proper hydration is still highly recommended for all
who are outdoors. With the increasingly hot and dry conditions
elevated fire weather conditions will start to encompass a large
portion of the panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

There is a very high chance for the high pressure system to remain
the dominant weather feature across the southern plains through much
of, if not all, of next week. However just because it is the
dominant weather feature doesn`t mean it wont be dynamic with the
strength of the system waxing and waining and it`s center moving
around. It is that flux that will bring changing weather across the
panhandles for next week.

Sunday will most likely still have the high pressure preventing
moisture from arriving in the panhandles keeping the weather dry.

This most likely change starting Monday as the high pressure starts
to weaken and shift around allowing for limited moisture.
This reintroduces at least a low chance for rain showers and
thunderstorms that will continue through Tuesday.

For Wednesday and the rest of the work week the high pressure is
more likely than not to weaken. The high pressure center is most
likely to shift back the desert southwest with a lesser chance for
it to become an open ridge of high pressure. Either way this will
allow for more moisture and small weather system to push into the
southern plains. This increases the chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms during the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with southerly winds
decreasing from 15 kts to 10 kts after 18Z. A potential for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will exist across parts of the
combined Panhandles after 22Z. The only terminal with high enough
confidence for a prob30 group at this time is KDHT. If confidence
increases for KGUY and KAMA prob30 groups may be added in
subsequent TAF issuances or amendments may be needed after 22Z.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...03