Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
907 FXUS64 KAMA 110520 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 - Windy and warm weather will return today. Winds over portions of the area could gust 35-40 mph beginning late this morning with afternoon temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. - Thunderstorms continue to look possible over the central and eastern panhandles on Tuesday afternoon/evening and then persist into Wednesday. - Significantly cooler weather still expected Friday and Saturday && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Storm Rachel currently getting ingested into the developing long wave trough over the western U.S. as it nears the Baja / southwestern CA coast. Evening water vapor imagery showing copious moisture spreading inland over the mountain west. High clouds are spilling into the panhandles at this time even though the trough axis is still on the west coast. With the southwesterly flow in place temps will warm into the upper 80`s and lower 90s through Monday. A lee side surface low will develop in southeast Colorado and with a tighter pressure gradient gusty winds are expected today. Gusts will be generally 35-40 mph in the north and 30-35 mph in the south. Would not be surprised to see some isolated gusts around 45 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 The weather starts to become more interesting by Tuesday afternoon. SPC has continued the slight risk of severe weather over the central and eastern panhandles Tuesday. Models showing pieces of energy from the remnants of former Hurricane Simon moving into west TX Tuesday. The associated subtle shortwave in this southwesterly flow will be moving across the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. This seems like the most favored time for convective initiation. The RRFS is showing thunderstorms developing just to the northeast and east of AMA at this time. NAM forecast soundings showing CAPE values of 1500-2000 j/kg late Tuesday afternoon over mainly the osuthern and eastern panhandle areas. Will need to monitor this activity for potential severe weather The main upper low..currently over central Washington..is still slowly digging south and by 12Z Wednesday should be near the 4 corners area according to the NAM. This is a little further south than yesterday and places the jet max closer to the area which will provide more of an impact than just skirting by as it appeared yesterday. Also with the slower positioning of the upper low the dryline will still likely be west of the area on Wednesday and therefore pops are still moderately high across most of the central and eastern panhandles into Wednesday night and then being confined to the southeast Thursday morning. After the upper low moves northeast, enters the plains and moves away from the area much cooler weather is expected with highs in the lower 60s expected for Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will see upper 30s across the northwest with lows in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026 High clouds moving across the panhandles overnight and into Sunday but VFR conditions will prevail into Sunday. Surface winds will be gusty at times overnight and increase Sunday morning to where the north will see gusts to 35-40 mph. Overnight tonight LLWS is a possibility again as a 40-50kt 850mb LLJ sets up from west Texas into portions of western KS. Right now LLWS looks most likely in the GUY area but still possible across the central panhandles. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KP LONG TERM....KP AVIATION...KP