923
FXUS64 KAMA 221912
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
212 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

- Cool, Fall-like temperatures today with showers and
  thunderstorms in the southeastern Texas Panhandle this
  afternoon.
- Temperatures warm up through Tuesday toward average.
- Forecast confidence decreases significant beyond Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely continue in the
southeastern half of the Texas Panhandle throughout today, but
should gradually come to an end from northwest to southeast as dry
air moves in from the north. Expecting today to feature cool weather
with temperatures in the 50s and 60s... after the summer we`ve
experienced, this is quite the change. Clouds will clear from
northwest to southeast through the night.

Monday, the Panhandles will be in the left entrance region which
implies subsidence over the region. Expect clear skies with very
little to no chance for rain as temperatures warm back up into the
70s.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

An upper-level trough will dig southeastward from the Northern
Plains on Tuesday, introducing northwesterly flow that changes to
northerly flow. There is an outside chance for a shower or
thunderstorm in the eastern combined Panhandles as the trough and
associated forcing skirts off to the east.

After Tuesday, confidence in the forecast greatly diminshes. This
upper-level trough may cut off from the jet stream as a potential
tropical system moves north into the Gulf of Mexico, while the
Panhandles remain sandwiched between the cut-off trough and a ridge
over the Four Corner States. The interaction between the potential
tropical system will be interesting to watch going forward as the
12z ECMWF and GFS show a fujiwhara effect between the two
systems, but any kind of potential impacts to the Panhandles is
anybody`s guess at this point.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

MVFR ceilings persist at KAMA and KGUY and should continue to
persist through at least the next couple of hours. There is quite
a bit of uncertainty as to how long the MVFR ceilings persist,
thus amendments will likely be needed through this afternoon.
Otherwise, breezy to gusty northerly winds are anticipated through
the afternoon becoming light and variable tonight through tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                47  77  54  83 /  10   0   0  20
Beaver OK                  44  73  49  79 /   0   0   0  20
Boise City OK              42  75  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  47  80  55  86 /   0   0   0  20
Boys Ranch TX              45  78  52  83 /   0   0   0  20
Canyon TX                  46  76  52  83 /  10   0   0  30
Clarendon TX               49  75  54  84 /  20   0   0  30
Dalhart TX                 42  75  47  79 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  40  75  48  78 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                46  78  53  84 /  10   0   0  20
Lipscomb TX                47  74  51  82 /  10   0   0  20
Pampa TX                   46  75  53  82 /  10   0   0  20
Shamrock TX                50  75  54  84 /  30  10   0  30
Wellington TX              52  77  55  86 /  50  10   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52