678
FXUS64 KAMA 150936
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
336 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 332 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

-Arctic air moves across the Panhandles Saturday.

-Some light snow possible for the western Panhandles Saturday.
 Better chance of accumulating snow across more of the area
 Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 332 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Surface high pressure will dominate our weather today, keeping winds
light. However, mostly sunny skies should help high temperatures
reach into the upper 40`s and lower 50`s with mid 40`s on the
deepest snowpack from Deaf Smith County into Amarillo.  The surface
high moves off to the southeast tonight and early Thursday.  A new
lee-side trough will then develop as upper heights fall ahead of an
upper level low moving onshore in northwest Baja California.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

The upper level low will weaken as it moves northeast into a
confluent flow aloft across the Plains on Friday.  Southwest surface
winds will pick up Thursday night into Friday morning across the
Panhandles in association with this feature`s passage.

The leading edge of much colder air will then spread from north to
south across the Panhandles Friday afternoon into Friday night. The
flow aloft will then become more north-northwest across the Plains
and this will allow an arctic airmass to spill southward across the
Panhandles Saturday.  The ridge/trough pattern across the U.S. and
Canada will persist through the end of this forecast, so a couple of
shots of arctic air will slide down the lee-side of the Rockies.  A
couple of upper air disturbances will move across the Panhandles.
The first, which looks like the weaker one, will move across the
area Saturday and Saturday night.  This system will have enough lift
and moisture to work with to bring some light snow to the western
Panhandles.  A stronger positively tilted trough will stretch from
southern California to the Great Lakes and will be attached to the
Hudson Bay low on Monday.  This trough will only slowly slip
southeast through Tuesday and will be southeast of the Panhandles by
Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday afternoon depending on which models
you agree with. The upper jet on the southeast side of this trough
may help to bring lift to the Panhandles.  This lift combined with
moisture aloft over the cold dome may set the stage for some light
snow to develop across the Panhandles as early as Sunday night, but
mostly Monday and Monday night.  The models are still in
disagreement with the timing of the snow and how much. Some models
want to keep the snow light and push it out by Monday night. Some
models are a little heavier with the snow and hold onto it through
Tuesday.  This will likely be the coldest airmass of the season so
far with highs in the teens and 20`s and lows in the single digits
above and below zero Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1037 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be light and variable shifting more westerly
around 5 to 10kts after 18z. Skies mostly clear for the TAF
period.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  25  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  50  24  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              48  23  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  51  25  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              50  23  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  47  23  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               51  27  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 49  20  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  50  22  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  22  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                50  26  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   48  26  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                52  27  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              52  27  60  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...89