136
FXUS64 KAMA 281134
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- A moderate excessive rainfall outlook remains in place along
  the central to western combined Panhandles. Meaning there is at
  least a 55% chance of seeing rainfall exceeding flash flood
  guidance within 25 miles of a point.

- There will be potential for high winds behind a cold front
  Thursday. The cold front is expected to bring below normal
  afternoon temps for Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

One more day of highs in the mid to upper 80s is expected today
as an upper level ridge maintains some influence before shifting
east. As this ridge shift east, southwest flow increases and so
does Pacific moisture. Going into the evening PoPs begin to pick
up first in the far NW to W combined Panhandles. Before sunrise
those PoPs pick up to 20 to 50 in the western half of the
Panhandles. Just after sunrise, likely to see PoPs increase to 70
to 90 in the west.

Tuesday morning after Hurricane Polo smacks into the Baja
Peninsula, the system begins to fall apart over western Mexico, it
will begin to get ingested into the main flow of an approaching
upper level trough. The low associated with this trough is
expected to be over the southern most tip of NV as it begins to
strengthen moving into AZ through the day on Tue. Even though
Polo is expected to fall apart is expected to transport quite a
bit of atmospheric moisture into the southwest flow aloft. Still
expecting a potential for heavy rain and flood potential due to
this abundant moisture and stout system coming into the Desert
Southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Wednesday`s rain chances will be highly contingent on how the
aforementioned upper level low comes across. The low may
potentially come across the Southern Great Plains in such a way
that the central to southwestern parts of the Panhandles end up
getting dry slotted with the eastern and northern portions getting
some additional rounds of rain. The eastern parts of the
Panhandles getting more rain on Wed/Wed night may only be the case
if the low doesn`t move off too fast and dry slots that area.
There will also be chances for wrap around moisture to add
additional rounds of light to moderate showers Thu and Thu night.
For now extra cloud cover is expected to keep afternoon
temperatures cooler in the 70s for the most part through the
weekend. With Friday potentially having the coolest temps,
potentially staying in the upper 60s. This will be thanks to the
arrival of a cold front Thursday. This cold front on Thursday may
also bring in some strong northerly winds behind it, and would not
rule out potential headlines like a wind advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Low clouds and fog are ongoing or anticipated this morning for
Amarillo, Guymon, and Dalhart. These conditions should improve by
late morning. Afterward, VFR conditions are anticipated until
perhaps late tonight when low clouds move in and rain chances
begin to increase.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for
     TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for TXZ003>005.

OK...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for
     OKZ001-002.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...52