382
FXUS64 KAMA 011801
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
101 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis from Monday
through at least Saturday.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary hazards.

- Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding on Tuesday and Wednesday
across the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Heights aloft are rising as a ridge builds over the region.
Temperatures are on their way to the 90s to low-100s this afternoon.
Despite the lack of meaningful forcing today, showers and
thunderstorms may develop this afternoon as convective temperatures
are reached. Forecast soundings show a deep mixed layer across the
Panhandles with a layer of mid-level moisture that should improve
with time. This will result in DCAPE values around 1500-1700 J/kg,
and with a mean storm motion between 20-25 mph. Low-level moisture
will be more favorable in the southern/eastern/northeastern combined
Panhandles which will result in MLCAPE values between 750-1250 J/kg,
though if mixing is overly aggressively like the HRRR suggests,
values between 250-750 J/kg look more likely. This environment could
cause any thunderstorm to produce strong wind gusts up to 70 mph,
and if the more aggressive CAPE solutions verify, hail up to the
size of ping pong balls. If thunderstorms develop in the western
Panhandles, they may be more on the dry side and would not rule out
a lightning-ignited fire, especially early on.  Thunderstorms will
likely wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Several
CAMs, as well as some mesoscale models, have an outflow boundary
moving into the northern Panhandles late tonight from thunderstorms
in Kansas. Will not rule out the possibility of thunderstorms along
and behind this outflow boundary between 06z to 12z Tuesday.

Much like today, Tuesday will feature feeble forcing, so any
thunderstorm that can develop will have to do so by natural rising
motion (reaching convective temperature). There is likely to be dry
air aloft that moves into the southeastern and central Panhandles
Tuesday afternoon and evening which should limit thunderstorm
development. However, the northwestern Panhandles may be more
removed from the dry air entrainment and could have some forcing
infringe upon the area, so cannot rule out some showers and
thunderstorms to move across the northwestern Panhandles Tuesday
evening. There is a chance that thunderstorms continue through
Tuesday night in the western Panhandles, but the more likely
scenario is that they stay in eastern New Mexico where there is
better forcing and moisture. Forcing and mid-level moisture should
begin to improve as we approach sunrise on Wednesday. Some CAM
solutions do bring thunderstorms in to the western Panhandles after
Midnight but actually weaken activity toward sunrise, likely due to
outflow from the New Mexico thunderstorms pushing into the western
Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing but weakening across the
Panhandles to start Wednesday, most likely in the western
Panhandles. A few CAMs (e.g., HRRR, NAM 3km, and RRFS) suggest that
a MCV could ultimately develop from the eastern New Mexico storms,
and this MCV will track into the Panhandles during the day on
Wednesday. There should be a period of time on Wednesday where we
have dry weather, but cloud cover will remain. Forcing and
impressive moisture advection is expected to move in Wednesday
afternoon, and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening. If a MCV does develop, it will certainly be a feature to be
monitored. Not only will it be a focal point for thunderstorm
development, but we could see training or repeated rounds of
thunderstorms near the MCV. PWATs will be above the 90th percentile
across the Panhandles, above the 97th percentile in the central
Panhandles, and above the 99th percentile in the west. This
corresponds to PWATs above 1", and up to 1.5" in the eastern
Panhandles (locally higher possible). This will support heavy
rainfall with thunderstorms to potentially torrential rainfall with
stronger thunderstorms. Fortunately, storm motion will be around 20-
30 mph which will cut down on the residence time for any one
thunderstorm over a singular location. However, flash flood concerns
will increase if a location sees repeated rounds of thunderstorms or
training thunderstorms. This concern is likely to be focused around
the MCV. Given the potent low-level moisture in place, MLCAPE is
expected to rise into the 2000-3000 range. Wind shear won`t be
strong; around 15-25 kts which will support multicell clusters.
However, these conditions will still favor at least a low-end severe
threat. Damaging winds and large hail are likely to be the primary
hazards. Thunderstorms may continue into the evening and potentially
into Wednesday night before weakening and/or moving out of the
Panhandles.

Thursday, an upper-level trough will be closed/cut-off over Mexico
as a shortwave is in the vicinity of the Panhandles. Cloudy
conditions are favored for Thursday morning but clouds may begin to
break down in the afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible later
Thursday afternoon.

The trough is favored to stay in place for Friday with more
thunderstorms possible as moisture remains in place for the
Panhandles. Forecast confidence decreases from Friday and beyond.
The trough may start to budge and move northeastward late Friday and
into Saturday, which may enhance thunderstorm chances (favorable
forcing) or decrease thunderstorm chances (dry air moves in behind
the system).

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will be possible at all terminals this afternoon,
with a slightly higher chance at Amarillo and Guymon, but overall
confidence is too low for mentions at this time. Amendments may be
needed if confidence increases. Cannot rule out some showers or
thunderstorms later tonight at Guymon, but again, confidence is low.
Low-level wind shear is expected at Guymon and possible at
Dalhart tonight.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52