438
FXUS64 KAMA 130531
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1231 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

-With the above normal temperatures still in place for the next
 few days, highs will be near the record today through Tuesday.

-A weather pattern shift will occur next week that has potential
 to bring needed rainfall and breaks in the heat to portions of
 the Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Storms are on a downward trend this evening, but still might get
some strong wind gusts.  DCAPE values still in the 1400-1600 range
will still support potential wind gusts upwards of 60 mph with some
of these storms.

Overall the upper high will gradually shift to the east and as it
does it will start to amplify.  Overall surface winds should be out
of the south to southeast moving into Sunday and there`s a good
Theta E plume of moisture expected to track across the western
Panhandles.  Latest Cams are favoring pops just west of an Amarillo
to Guymon line in the late afternoon to evening hours. Given that
temperatures will still be pretty hot, DCAPE values could support
strong damaging wind gusts with storms.  Storms are expected to
fizzle away with loss of daytime heating and just become general
showers to close out the evening.

Moving into Monday the ridge does move further east but expands as
it moves east pushing most of the Theta E moisture axis along the
western edge of the Panhandles. And with that the best chances of
pops look to be in the northwest Panhandles.  Again, with hot
temperatures in the upper 90s on Monday we could be looking at high
DCAPE values and will not rule out strong wind gusts with these
storms.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

While temperatures on Tuesday for most of the Panhandles are still
expected to be on the hot side (exception will be the northwest), we
should be on a transition track as a cold front is expected to
expand down through most of the Panhandles, the southeast being the
exception.  Along and behind the front we expect a medium to high
chance of showers and storms (40-70%).  On Wednesday that front may
retreat northwest a bit, leading to the main area of precipitation
being along and northwest of the Hereford to Perryton line.  Over
the course of the rest of the week and into the weekend the ridge
will gradually break down and we could have multiple days of showers
and storms with cooler, more seasonable highs as a more zonal flow
to slightly northwest flow comes into play.  Highs on Friday and
Saturday could be widespread low to mid 80s, which is certainly a
break from the past couple of months well above normal temperatures
on a daily basis.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites with variable winds
overnight in the 5-10kt range, becoming more southerly 10-20kts,
gusting 20 to 30 kts after 18z.  While no thunder currently
mentioned in the TAFs, PROB30`s cant be ruled out for DHT with
further updates, and maybe even KGUY.  KAMA has a much lower chance
<10 percent, but even that terminal could get an isolated storm,
mainly in that 21-03z time frame.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89