989
FXUS64 KAMA 241740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon
  across the Southern Texas Panhandles with damaging winds the
  primary hazard.

- Extreme amounts of moisture this afternoon could lead to
  localized flash flooding concerns, especially within urban areas
  and the canyon, with any thunderstorm that develops.

- Hot temperatures are expect to continue with near to over triple
  digit high temperatures possible through the end of July.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Not much has changed, with high pressure contributing to afternoon
highs reaching 98 to 105 degrees again today. The combined
Panhandles are falling under the eastern periphery of the H5 high
pressure with some northwest flow aloft, as a shortwave trough moved
through the Mid to Upper Mississippi River Valley. This shortwave
may bleed into the Panhandles potentially helping with the lift for
thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. At the very least a surface
low is expected to help create a surface trough type boundary
across the area mainly along the HWY60 corridor which will be the
primary focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Some of the
storms may be able to produce some localized heavy rainfall as
PWATs reach 1.75 to 2.00" along with long skinny CAPE. The hot
temperatures expected today are expected to also create strong
inverted V soundings with DCAPE around 1000-1400 J/Kg which may
lead to some damaging wind gusts.

Tomorrow, depending on the amount of rain realized and where today,
some localized areas may be able to be held back from reaching
100 degrees for a high. A decent increase in soil moisture will
need to be acquired for a region to avoid reaching full heating
potential. However, still looking at very warm temperatures
similar to today. The combined Panhandles lose upper level support
as the shortwave moves off away from the area and the high
pressure builds in again. Continued positive H7 theta-e advection
especially along and south of HWY 60 still may lead to some
isolated showers/storms popping under daytime heating. However,
confidence is fairly low with mainly a 10 to 15 PoP for this area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Long story short, hot temperatures remain in the forecast with the
majority of the Panhandles reaching the 100-109 degree range in the
afternoon with very little cooling at night. After Sunday, the
eastern Panhandles may lose the 60 Tds leading to a bit of a drier
heat as apposed to the high heat indices that have been seen lately.
Dry air may be able to mix down especially Tue and Wed allowing
much drier conditions for the central to southwestern TX
Panhandle, which could very well lead to elevated fire weather
conditions as drought persists. Through the long term very little
chance of precip exist except for the northwest come Thu when the
high may shift and bring northwest flow and some slight chance to
chance PoPs to the northwestern corner of the combined
Panhandles.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A surface boundary is splitting the combined Panhandles bringing
southerly winds to KAMA, while KDHT and KGUY see lighter northerly
winds. Also, south of this boundary KAMA has a Prob30 group for
scattered thunderstorms to impact the southern TX Panhandle.
Outside of potential impacts from thunder, expect VFR conditions.
KDHT could potentially need an amendment for thunder, as
confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-010-014-015-
     018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03