Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
430 FXUS64 KAMA 151810 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 -Slight chance for light showers in the west on Thursday, then far east on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Current GOES water vapor imagery shows an area of upper level low pressure sitting over CA/NV. Southwest flow aloft is currently present over the FA on the western periphery of a broad area of high pressure over TX into the southeastern US. A stream of atmospheric moisture can be viewed on the GOES imagery flowing north into New Mexico at this time. Today, showers and thunderstorms will be kept west of the FA. Tomorrow, this will change with the moisture shifting east over parts of the western combined Panhandles. Going into tomorrow the aforementioned mid to upper closed low is progged to shoot northeast into the Dakotas. As this happens both the mid and lower level pressure gradient will steepen allowing an H5 jet to pick up to around 70 to 80s kts over parts of NM, CO, and NE. Some higher wind speeds aloft around 40 to 50 kts at H5 may bleed over into the far northwestern combined Panhandles. However, increased cloud cover from that aforementioned moisture stream shifting east into the Panhandles should help in reducing the amount of mixing of the winds to the surface. H850 winds are progged to jump up to around 40 kts, although, not until after sunset, and will hopefully not be mixing to the surface at that time. Guidance is keeping much of the higher winds out of the area, so expecting to see some gusty winds Thursday afternoon. However, gusts should remain below 40 mph for most of the area. Model guidance has shifted from yesterday. Yesterday NBM probabilities for winds exceeding 40 mph were much higher. Now those probs that were around 40 to 50 percent are now only around 10 percent to maybe 20 percent. Back to the precipitation chances late tomorrow afternoon into the evening. The available atmospheric moisture combined with the right entrance region of the H5 jet bring about some light showers for the central to western combined Panhandles. Confidence remains low, with PoPs around 10 to 20 percent for measurable rain as instability will be lacking as well as the absence of additional lifting mechanisms such as PVA. A surface trough will move in from the west Thu night into Fri morning. Dry air advection associated with this trough will have Tds in the 40s to 50s drop into the teens and 20s across the western combined Panhandles going into sunrise Friday morning. Skies will begin to clear out at this time as well with winds falling off a bit. This will allow temperatures in the western combined Panhandles to drop into the 40s with a low in the 50s for the central to eastern Panhandles come Friday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The aforementioned surface trough at the end of the short term discussion, is expected to bring some northerly winds in the northwestern FA on Friday. These upsloping winds will help hold temperatures back in the mid to upper 70s for the northwestern third or so of the combined Panhandles Fri afternoon. While the rest of the Panhandles get closer to the lower 80s. Winds are expected to be much lighter on Fri as well. Western portions of the FA will also see some drier surface moisture as RH values fall to 20 percent or below with the lower Tds moving in. Friday night, a portion of the remaining upper level trough sitting off to the west is progged to skirt across the combined Panhandles. This will bring some low probs for precipitation across the far eastern combined Panhandles where some residual moisture may still be present if it hasn`t been pushed completely off to the east. This trough will also bring in some CAA behind a cold front Sat. During the day temps may only be held back by some northerly winds with highs still reaching the 70s. Overnight, though clear skies and calm winds will allow for radiational cooling and temperatures to really drop off, making the cold front much more noticeable. Especially in the northwest where a Frost Advisory may potentially be needed with a 20 to 40 percent chance for temperatures dropping to below 36 degrees. Beyond Sunday, temperatures look to stay mostly mild with above normal temperatures for Monday. Conditions are progged to be mostly dry. However, there is quite a bit of separation in model guidance the further out in time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail with gusty winds out of the south, up to 20 to 30 kts. KDHT has the best chances to be near the top of this range with gusts around 30 kts. Some LLWS may be present for all three terminals near sunrise tomorrow, this will all depend on how much the surface winds can actually fall off as the directional difference may only be about 20 degrees at most. Will amend if needed. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36