Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
904 FXUS64 KAMA 301734 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 - Showers with isolated thunderstorms are favored this morning through tonight. There is a very low chance for flash flooding. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into Monday. - Strong winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday with wind gusts potentially exceeding 50 mph. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Rain is on the way once again for much of the combined Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Current radar and mesoanalysis observations as of midnight show a broad trough draped along the Rio Grande Valley, with a swath of scattered showers and storms across much of west Texas. This trough along with a lead perturbation are lifting northward, pulling a generous amount of tropical moisture with them. The swath of scattered to widespread showers and weak storms currently south of the Panhandles will eventually reach and gradually lift over the area throughout the day. Expect mostly light to moderate rainfall with embedded pockets of heavier rain mixed in. Moisture may not be quite as rich as previously indicated (PWATs 1.0-1.25"), but will still be abundant for some decent rainfall. Totals of 0.5-1.0" will be more common in the south and east, but northwest and central portions of the Panhandles will see totals generally under a half inch. POPs are greater than 70% for almost the entire CWA, with the far NW Panhandles being the exception. As alluded to in previous discussions, the fast movement of this system will likely allow some dry air to filter in to the area by the evening hours. Activity would be expected to end earlier this evening as a result, which is partly why our forecast rainfall totals are trending slightly lower. Regardless, the threat of flash flooding is still quite low. It would take heavier rain rates with convection to get even low-end flash flooding, but nuisance flooding will certainly be feasible through the day. Another brief hit of moisture in conjunction with a subtle vorticity maxima could spur up a few scattered showers across the western to central counties of the forecast area tomorrow afternoon, but probabilities are less than 20% for now. Saturday should be a pleasant day overall, with lingering clouds gradually clearing and highs in the 60s. Winds will be out of the south at 10-15 mph. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Forecast trends are on an upward trajectory for rain/storm chances Sunday-Sunday night, as the next in our series of systems passes over the region. Ridging in between these systems will give way to southwest flow, allowing for quality 700mb theta-e to be advected back to the Panhandles. The window still appears somewhat brief, but vigorous lift ahead of and with the trough`s arrival should help generate showers and storms for the Panhandles as early as Sunday afternoon, but more likely Sunday evening- overnight (40-70% POPs). Shear is forecast to be quite nice during this time frame (40-60 kts), but instability is still looking dubious at best (70-90% chance for MUCAPE to stay <1000 J/kg). This should limit severe potential, but a few organized strong storms certainly can`t be ruled out. A dry slot is slated to filter in by Monday morning, bringing a brief end to precipitation chances. Temperatures to start the week Sun & Mon will be near seasonal averages in the 60s & 70s. Breezy south winds of 15-30 mph will become more common especially Monday, with gusts approaching 45 mph. As the trough axis translates east of the Panhandles, a stout 120kt upper level jet streak within northwest flow will dive over the region, allowing a strong cold front to push southward Monday night. This front will have a tightly packed pressure gradient behind it, along with decently stacked jet dynamics. While this supports cooler temperatures being advected to the Panhandles, the more impactful consequence appears to be the return of strong wind gusts. Despite the potential for additional wrap around showers and dense cloud cover behind the front, this downward momentum could help gusts as high as 50-60 mph mix down to the surface if everything comes together just right (favoring the northwest Panhandles). Even if limiting factors win out, it is likely that northwest winds of 20-30 mph gusting up to 45 mph will continue through much of the day Tuesday. Rain chances during this time frame look to favor the northern combined Panhandles for now. Models are in fair agreement that our pattern should quiet down through the middle of next week, with weak ridging atop the region. Temps should be near or below seasonal averages, with drier air back in place for a couple days. Winds will thankfully diminish as well, spelling a recipe for some nice fall days. Long range projections are back to hinting at another active stretch towards the end of next week, as our rambunctious run of fall weather doesn`t look to stop anytime soon. Harrel && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 IFR cigs to start the 18Z TAF period at KAMA, with VFR cigs at KDHT/KGUY. As we approach 00Z, all TAF sites should drop to MVFR/IFR cigs and remain in these categories throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Some -RA conditions to start TAF period through 00Z expected. Winds will generally be out of the south and southeast at 5-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts at times. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...29