021
FXUS64 KAMA 272342
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
642 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

- There is generally between a 30-70% chance for showers and
  thunderstorms on a daily basis, mostly in the evening and
  overnight hours, from today through next Tuesday. Localized
  flooding will be possible, especially for areas that see
  prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain.

- Temperatures returns briefly to near normal for today before the
  arrival of a cold front Thursday sees further cooler conditions
  return.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

High pressure remains across the southern portions of TX with it
slowly drifting to the west. This is making it a more dominate
feature across the TX panhandle for both today and Thursday. The
increased subsidence associated with the high pressure will help
to suppress cloud formation allowing for more sunlight to reach
the surface. This combined with the increase subsidence warming
will be the cause for the rising temperatures today that will see
the high return to near normal. Even with the high pressure
becoming a prominent feature it will not be strong enough over the
panhandles to prevent the passage of small weather systems. Later
this evening into the overnight a small weather system has a high
chance of entering the panhandles from NM. This system will have a
moderate chance of causing rain showers and thunderstorms mainly
in the northern TX and Ok panhandles. Thursday also has a high
chance of having another weather system pass across the
panhandles. This system will have a low to moderate chance of
causing rain showers and thunderstorms for the entire panhandles
as a cold front passes through. The arrival of that system`s cold
front will bring in cooler air causing a dip in the temperatures
for Thursday compared to today. Moisture for both today and
Thursday remains abnormally high across the panhandles which will
allow any strong rain shower or thunderstorms to produce heavy
rainfall. This means there is at least a low chance for localized
flooding for both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Friday through this weekend will have a high chance of the high
pressure in southern TX shifting westward to the Mexico and the
desert SW. This will have the effect of reorienting the weather
pattern across the southern plains, including the panhandles, to
be that of northwest flow. This will allow several weather systems
to pass across the panhandles bringing during the weekend. The
overall environment remains very moist during this time so the
added instability of the weather system will lead to a moderate to
high chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to occur. Further
this moisture will allow for heavy rainfall to occur from any of
the rain showers and thunderstorms which can cause localized
flooding. Currently Saturday is most likely to have the most
potent weather system so it has the highest chance for both rain
and thunderstorms and flooding from those. Looking at the dynamics
and instability there is some indication that these may align
favorably to allow for stronger storms to develop. However the
overall confidence for these remains low as there is detractors
such as the extent of cloud cover that could mitigate their
formation. With all the moisture present across the panhandles
and the active wet weather the temperatures will have a high
chance of being cooler than normal for the entire weekend.

Going into next week the confidence in the large scale weather
pattern becomes lower as several divergent weather patterns may
unfold. This broadly may be separated into two camps; the first
being the high pressure becoming more dominant, the second a large
scale trough becoming more dominant. The first solution of high
pressure will lend itself to warmer and somewhat drier conditions
for next work week. Still there is moisture over the panhandles
with this solution so there will still be a low chance for rain
showers and thunderstorms. For the second solution the large scale
trough will keep a northwesterly to even northerly flow across the
southern plains. This will allow for weather system to continue to
move across the panhandles bringing more rounds of rain and
thunderstorms. This will also serve to keep the temperatures
cooler across the panhandles through next work week. Basically we
are looking at either warmer conditions with less rain chances or
cooler conditions with higher rain chances. As of this forecast
the high pressure solution seems to be more the likely to occur so
it is the one that is more reflected in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will start out from the south to southwest, but
should be going more northerly in the 12-15z time period. PROB30
for KGUY as some isolated storms are popping up in the OK
Panhandle. While nothing noted at KDHT, we may need amendments if
storms try to expand further south, but for now no mention of
thunder. Some LLWS at KGUY and KAMA in the 06-12z time period with
winds around 40kts at 2kft agl out of the south to southwest.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89