900
FXUS64 KAMA 151754
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1254 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

- Hot to very hot temperatures are expected on Monday and Tuesday,
with temperatures ranging from the mid-90s to low-100s.

- Warmer than average temperatures are expected to return Thursday
  through at least Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms--potentially a MCS--may be
ongoing Sunday morning across the eastern combined Panhandles, but
should clear out by the afternoon hours. If the cluster of
thunderstorms pans out, this will result in relatively cooler
temperatures across the eastern combined Panhandles compared to
elsewhere in the CWA. For that reason the NBM looks overzealous with
the low-90 degree highs especially if it takes until the late
morning/early afternoon to clear out of the clouds. Have therefore
have lowered highs using CONSShort which primarily lowers
temperatures for the eastern/southeastern Panhandles.

Rising heights aloft is expected on Monday as an upper-level ridge
tries to build into the southern High Plains. Temperatures will warm
into the mid-90s to low-100s across the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

An upper-level trough is expected to move across the Central Plains
on Tuesday resulting in the development of a surface low in the
southern High Plains. Dry air will usher into most of the Panhandles
except perhaps the eastern extent, and temperatures will soar into
the upper-90s to low-100s. A few locations could see temperature or
heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria, such as a portion of
the southeastern TX Panhandle and Palo Duro Canyon.

A cold front will move in from the north Tuesday evening and push
through the area overnight. With increased low-level moisture behind
the front, showers and thunderstorms will be possible as the front
pushes through--particularly in the northern and eastern combined
Panhandles.

Expecting temperatures on Wednesday to "cool" back toward the
climatological average of upper-80s to low-90s, but that won`t last
long. From Thursday through the weekend an upper-level ridge is
favored to quickly build over the Southwestern US and expand east,
resulting in the return of warmer than average temperatures. The
large-scale subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge also
supports a very low chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. The only exception would be a thunderstorm with erratic
winds. But confidence is too low to include in the forecast at
this time. Winds will be out of the south and southeast at 5-15
kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29