355
FXUS64 KAMA 121847
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
147 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- High temperatures will be hot with widespread highs in the 90s
with a few locations at or above 100 degrees. This can reach  record
daily highs at times.

- 10-20% chance for high based thunderstorms Wednesday and  Thursday
in the Panhandles which have the potential for damaging  wind gusts
from dry microbursts and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A high pressure system continues to move across the southern plains
for both today and Wednesday. For today the high pressure is
directly across the southern plains while on Wednesday it will be
leaving the region. For today this high pressure system will bring
calm and sunny weather across the panhandles. The ample sun coupled
with subsidence heating of the high pressure system will spike our
high temperatures into the 90s to low 100s. This will put our highs
close to our even at record high values for several stations. Such
heat will pose a risk for heat illness for those who are sensitive
to heat or those who lack sufficient hydration or cooling. Once the
high shifts eastward on Wednesday it will shear off some mid level
moisture, around the 600mb level, and move this into the southern
panhandles. The overall environment will have limited instability up
to 500 J/kg which can be utilized once the convective temperatures
is reached during the later afternoon. This will allow for a low
chance for high based rain showers and thunderstorms for the
afternoon to evening of Wednesday. These will form over a deep sub
cloud base dry layer which means most if not all the precipitation
they will produce will evaporate before it reaches the surface. So
the rain showers and thunderstorms will produce far more wind than
any rainfall for the panhandles. This would support DCAPE values
of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg across much of the panhandles. This will
allow for winds to be very strong to damaging with 70 mph
downburst being most likely, although 85+ mph downburst cannot be
ruled out. Wednesday is just looking like a classic environmental
setup for powerful dry microbursts. If the storms get strong
enough then even large hail can form as well. As for the
temperatures Wednesday will most likely be slightly cooler owning
to the high moving to the east and there being an increase in
cloud cover. That would put the highs mainly in the 90s with only
the hottest spots having the potential for 100.

Spotty elevated fire weather conditions can be expected for both
today and Wednesday just based on how dry it will be for both
days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Thursday the high pressure departs off to the east with a weather
system moving across southern plains from the mountainous west.
This will most likely bring additional 600 mb level moisture across
the panhandles with an increase in instability to 750 J/kg.
This will allow for a more extensive field and more numerous high
based rain showers and thunderstorms to form across the panhandles.
These will most likely start once the convective temperature is
reached during the afternoon and last through to the evening. Since
these are high based over a deep dry sub cloud base layer little to
no rainfall will reach the surface. Instead these will most likely
produce powerful downburst winds as the environment is that of a
classic dry microburst setup. Once again DCAPE will be 1500 to
2000 J/Kg which will support 70mph downburst on average and even
allow for 85+ mph downbursts. If the storms get strong enough
then even large hail can form. The passage of the weather system
will bring breezy southwest across the panhandles. This will drive
in dry and hotter surface air across the panhandles leading to a
fairly high chance increased temperatures. The high will most
likely climb back into the higher 90s to lower 100s across the
panhandles. The dry and breezy conditions will most likely lead to
elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the
panhandles. The western panhandles will be more likely to see the
critical conditions due to it being drier, while the eastern
panhandles see more elevated due to slightly higher moisture.

Friday the weather system has a high chance of departing with much
of the moisture leading to calmer, but still hot, weather conditions.

The weekend looks to have a dry line setup with the passage of a
large weather system. For Saturday the dryline will most likely be
to the east of the panhandles leaving the whole of the panhandles
within the dry sector. This would lead to mainly calm weather but
does introduce the chance for elevated to even critical fire weather
conditions. Sunday is more likely the spicier day as the weather
system fully impacts the Great Plains.
This has the potential of pushing the dryline further to the west
into the eastern panhandles. If this occurs then it opens up the
panhandles to see strong to even severe thunderstorms during the
afternoon to evening. To the west of the dry line in the dry sector
it will most likely be windy and dry leading to further elevated to
critical fire weather conditions.

Then going into next work week there is still increasing confidence
that the weather pattern shifts to be more active. This increases
the chances that further weather system will pass into the Great
Plains. This in turn increases the chances that the panhandles will
see either rain from rain showers and thunderstorms from the
moisture of the weather systems. Or, it means that the panhandles
will see further elevated to critical fire weather conditions if we
are in the dry sector of these weather systems.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions at all terminals and across the panhandles for the
next 24 hours. There will be breezy southwest winds at all terminals
ahead of a surface boundary for early this afternoon. Once this
boundary passes winds shift to the northeast for KDHT and KGUY for
the rest of the afternoon through evening. Winds become
southeasterly and breezy at all terminals for later Wednesday
morning. Wednesday there is a very low chance for high based rain
showers to thunderstorms with the potential to impact KAMA. However,
the chances are too low to be reflected within the KAMA TAF at this
time. In any case these showers and thunderstorms will produce more
winds than any rainfall.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for TXZ001>003-006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98