675
FXUS64 KAMA 271740
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

- There is generally between a 30-70% chance for showers and
  thunderstorms on a daily basis, mostly in the evening and
  overnight hours, from today through next Tuesday. Localized
  flooding will be possible, especially for areas that see
  prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain.

- Temperatures returns briefly to near normal for today before the
  arrival of a cold front Thursday sees further cooler conditions
  return.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

High pressure remains across the southern portions of TX with it
slowly drifting to the west. This is making it a more dominate
feature across the TX panhandle for both today and Thursday. The
increased subsidence associated with the high pressure will help
to suppress cloud formation allowing for more sunlight to reach
the surface. This combined with the increase subsidence warming
will be the cause for the rising temperatures today that will see
the high return to near normal. Even with the high pressure
becoming a prominent feature it will not be strong enough over the
panhandles to prevent the passage of small weather systems. Later
this evening into the overnight a small weather system has a high
chance of entering the panhandles from NM. This system will have a
moderate chance of causing rain showers and thunderstorms mainly
in the northern TX and Ok panhandles. Thursday also has a high
chance of having another weather system pass across the
panhandles. This system will have a low to moderate chance of
causing rain showers and thunderstorms for the entire panhandles
as a cold front passes through. The arrival of that system`s cold
front will bring in cooler air causing a dip in the temperatures
for Thursday compared to today. Moisture for both today and
Thursday remains abnormally high across the panhandles which will
allow any strong rain shower or thunderstorms to produce heavy
rainfall. This means there is at least a low chance for localized
flooding for both days.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Friday through this weekend will have a high chance of the high
pressure in southern TX shifting westward to the Mexico and the
desert SW. This will have the effect of reorienting the weather
pattern across the southern plains, including the panhandles, to
be that of northwest flow. This will allow several weather systems
to pass across the panhandles bringing during the weekend. The
overall environment remains very moist during this time so the
added instability of the weather system will lead to a moderate to
high chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to occur. Further
this moisture will allow for heavy rainfall to occur from any of
the rain showers and thunderstorms which can cause localized
flooding. Currently Saturday is most likely to have the most
potent weather system so it has the highest chance for both rain
and thunderstorms and flooding from those. Looking at the dynamics
and instability there is some indication that these may align
favorably to allow for stronger storms to develop. However the
overall confidence for these remains low as there is detractors
such as the extent of cloud cover that could mitigate their
formation. With all the moisture present across the panhandles
and the active wet weather the temperatures will have a high
chance of being cooler than normal for the entire weekend.

Going into next week the confidence in the large scale weather
pattern becomes lower as several divergent weather patterns may
unfold. This broadly may be separated into two camps; the first
being the high pressure becoming more dominant, the second a large
scale trough becoming more dominant. The first solution of high
pressure will lend itself to warmer and somewhat drier conditions
for next work week. Still there is moisture over the panhandles
with this solution so there will still be a low chance for rain
showers and thunderstorms. For the second solution the large scale
trough will keep a northwesterly to even northerly flow across the
southern plains. This will allow for weather system to continue to
move across the panhandles bringing more rounds of rain and
thunderstorms. This will also serve to keep the temperatures
cooler across the panhandles through next work week. Basically we
are looking at either warmer conditions with less rain chances or
cooler conditions with higher rain chances. As of this forecast
the high pressure solution seems to be more the likely to occur so
it is the one that is more reflected in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

An active weather pattern continues to impact the panhandles and
all the terminals for the next several days. For today the low
level cloud deck is burning off which will see the terminals
improve to VFR conditions during this afternoon. The VFR
conditions then have a high chance of remaining so as low level
dry moves into the panhandles. There is an exception with a low to
moderate chance for rain showers and thunderstorms in the northern
panhandles this evening into the overnight. These could cause
brief reductions to MVFR conditions at KGUY if the pass over the
airfield. The chances of these impacting KDHT are to low to be
reflected within the current TAFs. Then for Thursday there is a
further low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms that can
also reduce conditions to MVFR if they impact any of the
terminals. Currently the chances of this occurring are to low to
be reflected within any of the TAFs. The winds today will remain
southerly and gusty through the afternoon into the evening. For
Thursday the winds will initially be southerly but will shift to
the north following the passage of a cold front. This front will
move N to S over the panhandles during the morning hours impacting
KGUY then KDHT and lastly KAMA.



&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98