193
FXUS64 KAMA 012329
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Isolated showers and storms remain across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle but coverage is decreasing as daytime heating is coming
to an end for the day. A few showers or storms remain possible
across the southwest and east for the next few hours with a 10
percent chance for rain or less. Some model guidance has been
suggesting there could be some patchy fog or low clouds during the
overnight hours. Have opted to keep fog mentions out of the
forecast for now, but if winds do stay out of the east, cannot
rule out some patchy fog or low clouds near sunrise tomorrow
morning.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 907 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

- There is a low chance for isolated thunderstorms in the eastern
  panhandles today with a very low chance that they become severe.

- Precipitation chances remain low until they increase late this
  week.

- Temperatures stay near to below average this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 907 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

A small weather system is passing mainly to the east of the
panhandles for this afternoon and evening. While this system is
not directly impacting the panhandles it has a moderate chance of
bringing slightly high instability to the eastern panhandles. This
small increase in instability may prove crucial as it can tip the
scales from having no rain showers and thunderstorms to having
those. So for this afternoon and early evening there is a low
chance for rain showers and thunderstorms in the eastern
panhandles. If enough instability manages to creep into the
eastern panhandles then even a very low chance for an isolated
severe thunderstorm cannot be discounted. If somehow we manage to
get such a storm then wind and hail would be the primary threats.
For the rest of the panhandles daytime heating is the only forcing
to be found for the formation of rain showers and thunderstorms.
This makes it so that there is only a very low chance that any
rain shower or thunderstorm forms today. This will hold true for
Tuesday as well as no additional weather system is expected.
Otherwise temperatures will hover around to a little below normal
for both today and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 907 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The period of calmer weather comes to an end of Wednesday with the
arrival of a large scale weather system to the eastern U.S. This
system still has a moderate chance of bringing a cold front to the
panhandles late Wednesday to Thursday. There still remains some
uncertainty in the vigor of this cold front. Overall trends are
indicative that of a weak front for the panhandles with the
stronger portions of this system to the east of the panhandles.
Still such a boundary would provide forcing that leads to a low
chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. Still the arrival of
this system will create a favorable flow aloft for further weather
system to arrive across the panhandles. The first of such systems
has the highest chances of arriving towards Saturday bringing a
round of rain showers and thunderstorms. The exact extent of such
activity is uncertain as the weather systems potency is still in
flux at this juncture. Otherwise it seems highly likely that the
period of active weather for midweek into the weekend will cause a
drop in the temperatures to below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Cannot completely
rule out low clouds or patchy fog developing late in the overnight
hours, but have kept conditions VFR for now. Otherwise, winds will
be out of the north to northeast around 10-15 kts or less.

Muscha

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05