445
FXUS64 KAMA 202329
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

- Thunderstorm chances return to the Panhandles tonight. These
  storms have a low (5%) chance of becoming severe.

- Chances for rain persist this week across the combined
  Panhandles. Chances for excessive rainfall and severe storms will
  be monitored on a daily basis.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Surface winds have become westerly and northerly across much of the
region due to the passing of a cold front this morning. A
reinforcement front is expected to move across the CWA tomorrow
morning and help surface winds become more northeasterly. These east
and northeast winds should prevail through the rest of Monday.

Regarding precipitation, we have been watching the trends of the
latest 12Z models alongside the position of the cold front that
passed through our CWA this morning. Our confidence is much lower
across much of the TX Panhandle for thunderstorms during the day
time, since the cold front has progressed much further south than
models previously had it for this afternoon. Our main concern is
still for the overnight time frame, when the complex of storms
beginning in SE Colorado moves south into our area thanks to another
boundary carrying the convection across. However, there are still
some uncertainties with regard to coverage and severity. Most CAMs
this morning have strong signals for the OK Panhandle, mainly across
Beaver county. A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms is across
the OK Panhandle and portions of the northern TX Panhandle. Chances
for severe storms are now much lower in the central and southern TX
Panhandle, especially in Amarillo proper. Thunderstorms should begin
very late tonight, likely after midnight and most of the activity
should occur during the hours just before and right after sunrise.

For the rest of Monday, persistent cloud cover and northeasterly
winds will aid in keeping day time temperatures on the cooler side.
Highs tomorrow should range in the 70s and 80s, with morning lows
bottoming in the 50s and 60s. CAMs this morning are not as enthused
about afternoon storms in the Texas Panhandle or Tuesday morning
rain chances for the combined Panhandles. NBM PoPs tomorrow and
early Tuesday are largely being driven by global models and their
ensemble members. Namely the ECMWF and ENS ensembles are the most
aggressive models for high PoPs and storm coverage across the FA.
Once more of the CAMs and short term models get ingested to the NBM,
expect PoPs to decrease as models try to resolve storm coverage for
our area. Right now, the western combined Panhandles are favored for
precipitation, but storms need to hold together for our central and
eastern zones to be in play as well.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Global models in the mid-range continue to place the H500 high
pressure center over the Texas and Louisiana gulf coast, while the
axis of the ridge extends into portions of the central Great
Plains. Favorable steering flow on the windward side of the upper
level high will allow our CWA to experience back-to-back rain
chances this week. With a deepening trough expected to traverse
across the Atlantic coastal regions late this week, this may
trigger another subtle western transition from the upper level
high. If the ridge does reposition more over our area or due
south, expect surface temperatures to rise and rain chances to
decline next weekend.

For the rest of this week, highs look to remain in the 70s and 80s
across the CWA. PoPs in the extended period currently favor the
western Panhandles more than the rest of the area. The main
concern will be the extent of thunderstorm coverage each day. If
storm mode is more conducive for scattered thunderstorms as
opposed to widespread thunderstorms, we can expect a decline in
precipitation chances as models resolve where thunderstorms may
setup spatially.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

VFR conditions to start the TAF period at all TAF sites. MVFR/IFR
at times for all TAF sites roughly between 10-15Z before VFR
conditions return for KDHT/KAMA by the end of the TAF period. MVFR
cigs may linger through the remainder of the TAF period for KGUY.
Winds will be out of the northeast at 5-15 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29