Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
602 FXUS64 KAMA 181844 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1244 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 -A potential for a wetting rain and cooler temperatures will arrive with a low pressure system set to impact the Panhandles starting Wed night into Thu. A low chance for some localized flooding will need to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 An upper level closed low can be seen on GOES water vapor imagery currently. The FA is currently under an area of flow that is transitioning from the southwest to quasi-zonal under and upper level ridge. Under this ridge expecting above average temperatures today and tomorrow with relatively light winds until this aforementioned low pressure system arrives over AZ/NM and pumps moisture into the area for rain showers on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 By Wed night an upper level low pressure system sitting over CA into the Pacific is progged to be near the southern tip of NV, and CA/AZ. By this time another low pressure system is progged to be getting spun up off the coast of the PacNW. By Thu this secondary system will have moved south over the Bay Area of CA and have joined the first low in the same broad parent trough. The FA is set to be under the eastern periphery of this parent trough with increasing atmospheric moisture. Moisture should begin to increase tomorrow with the main dynamics and moisture showing up for Thu. PoPs get introduced to the far southeastern TX Panhandle Wed night, with PoPs increasing well into the 70 to 90 range across much of the FA from sunrise to sunset on Thursday. Confidence has been continuing to increase for the prospects of rain with this system as models continue to come in line. The main lifting mechanism, for the main show on Thursday, appears to be the left exit region of an H5 jet. Not all models show a significant source of instability, therefore, thunder appears to be limit but not zero. One exception for instability is the NAM. If the NAM is correct, would not rule out some severe storms. Will have to continue to monitor trends, but the better chances for severe storms will be to the east and south of the combined Panhandles. With the current set up, there are some decent probabilities for receiving 1" of rain Thu into early Fri. Those probabilities being 30 to 60 percent chance across the eastern two thirds of TX Panhandle with a 10 to 30 percent chance elsewhere in the FA. Cooler temperatures are expected for Thu thanks to the rain. But for Friday and Saturday near normal temperatures are expected thanks to a cold front on Friday. For Sunday, slight chance to chance PoPs are looking to return as the secondary low previously mention shows up with more moisture and lift. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 18Z TAF period with relatively light winds gradually turning around the clock. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36