646
FXUS64 KAMA 241821
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Dry conditions and no weather related travel impacts are
  expected leading up to and including Thanksgiving day for the
  Panhandles.

- A pattern shift this weekend into next week will likely lead to
  much cooler temperatures and the potential for wintry
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Quiet, drier, seasonal weather conditions will stick around over the
Panhandles through tomorrow, with highs in the 50s & 60s.
Synoptically, we`re under northwest flow as this past weekend
weather system lifts towards the Midwest, helping a pair of cold
fronts pass over the region. Tomorrow`s cold front will be similar
to today`s in terms of breezy north winds of 15-25 mph, but will
result in slightly cooler temperatures than today (5-10 degrees
lower). Drier air has and will have further settled back in across
the area behind these fronts, creating favorable conditions for
radiational cooling, leading to widespread sub-freezing low
temperatures by Wednesday morning.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025


The mid week forecast holds much of the same, featuring about as
ideal of a fall day as you could ask for on Thanksgiving. No
precipitation, highs in the 50s, partly cloudy skies, and only a
light south breeze. Friday will be a touch warmer and breezier, but
still quiet and pleasant.

Much attention and contemplation in our world of weather is being
occupied by and poured into the quandary of what to expect late
this weekend into early next week. During this time frame, global
models provide greater confidence in a colder and active stretch
going into December. There is much uncertainty, but numerous data
sets point in favor of anomalously cooler temperatures arriving
behind a cold front next Sun-Mon, lasting to mid next week (as
much as 15 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages). Latest outputs
would suggest this equates to highs in the 40s, and lows in the
teens to 20s, but there are indications that temperatures could
trend even colder.

While doubts about the cold air decrease, mentions of wintry
precipitation have increased in tandem. Current synoptic projections
place a large scale, positively tilted trough axis to our west,
with southwest flow stretching across the southern CONUS early
next week. This pattern would allow for colder Canadian air masses
to move in, while also pulling Pacific moisture back to the
region. With these factors in mind, and assuming any hypothetical
system tracks favorably, precipitation chances would be expected
to increase (currently 20-30% Sun-Mon). The critical question then
becomes, "What would the precipitation type be?". If a deep
enough push of cold air arrives and becomes further reinforced
through the week, snow would certainly be in play, and in fact
would be the most favored outcome. If southwest flow in the mid-
levels is able to maintain a mid-layer warm nose though, we will
need to monitor the present possibility for a wintry mix of precip
types to be in play. If precipitation truly comes to fruition,
regular rain is currently one of the least likely outcomes. There
is still an abundance of time for models to change their tune, so
please continue to check back for updates on this very fluid
forecast.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all sites over the next 24 hours
(once MVFR ceilings clear over KGUY). Breezy northwest winds of
15-25 kts will subside later tonight, and then resume out of the
north towards the end of the period behind a passing cold front.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38