354
FXUS64 KAMA 181726
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1226 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- Another round of widespread triple-digit temperatures is
  expected this afternoon with the Eastern Panhandles seeing highs
  upwards of 105 degrees.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain
  present for Wednesday and next week with best chances across
  the Northern Panhandles.

- Elevated fire weather conditions remain possible each afternoon
  as the Panhandles hold onto hot and dry conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Present model agreement continues to see the upper-level high
retrograde back west with most models seeing it directly over the
Panhandles by this afternoon. This will unfortunately see a return
of much drier and hotter conditions for the day with any
precipitation chances relying on the remnants of storms making it
off the mountains to our west. To further amplify these
conditions, present CAMs have seen decent southwesterly flow
present at the lower-levels of the atmosphere that will likely see
breezy southwesterly winds at the surfaces. These winds will aid
in seeing relative humidity values drop as low as 15% while
temperatures push triple-digits for multiple locations this
afternoon and evening. For the eastern Panhandles, temperatures
are expected rise as high as 107 degrees with our more terrain
based locations feeling evening hotter. Given these temperatures,
a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Eastern Panhandles from
noon until 9 PM tonight. Meanwhile across the entire Panhandles,
look for this hot, dry and breezy state to bring back elevated
fire weather concerns for the afternoon.

As for Wednesday, a slight reprise of this high pressure does
continue to trend as models see the high back off with the
southerly push of a trough sitting over the Great Lakes area.
While the Panhandles wont feel the full extent of this trough, it
will open us to enough northwesterly flow to allow a weak
disturbance to forces storms to push in from the mountains to our
west. In terms of impacts, present CAMs have higher confidence in
storms producing strong to damaging gusts than anything else,
given the lack of high amounts of CAPE or wind shear. Regardless,
this shift will help in cooling off the Northern Panhandles with
temperatures closer to the low 90s, while the far southeast still
deals with triple-digit temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

The presence of the trough to our east will aid in keeping the
upper-level high off the Panhandles for an extra day Thursday,
which will result in temperatures staying closer to the mid 90s
for the day. Unfortunately, this break does not look to last as
present model agreement sees the high returning in full force by
Friday, with a few runs even suggesting the center of the high
sitting over the Panhandles by this weekend. This placement of the
high is expected to lead to another round of very hot days with
widespread triple-digit temperatures for the weekend and start of
next week. As for precipitation, the northern Panhandles do still
hold around a 10 to 30 percent chance of see storms push in form
the Southern Front Range. However for the south, these chances are
very slim with present guidance only calling for a 10 percent or
less chance of storms each day. Otherwise, look for these hot and
dry conditions to further aggravate fuels and bring more chances
of elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Breezy conditions this afternoon as southwest winds gust to
25-30kt across the panhandles. VFR conditions expected through
this forecast period with winds diminishing back to 12-14kt by
early this evening. Overnight some LLWS is possible over portions
of the panhandles but will subside by early Wedensday morning.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-
     014-015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...KP