770
FXUS64 KAMA 221914
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
214 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

- Hot temperatures are expected to continue into next week with
  the Panhandles expecting multiple days of near or above triple
  digit temperatures.

- The accumulating effect of multiple triple digit temperature
  days combined with little to no overnight relief can result in
  increased chances for heat related illnesses and impacts.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms exist Thursday through
  Saturday with concerns focused on strong wind gusts and heavy
  rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Heat advisory remains in effect for Palo Duro Canyon (although
again it is not acting its normal self due to rainfall last
weekend) as well as areas from Dumas to Borger through early
evening. Tight PGRAD between lee-side SFC cyclogenesis and SFC
high over the NRN MS River Valley will lead to increasing SRLY
flow and will induce a 30-40 kt low level jet overnight. This will
hold low temps up significantly overnight which is partly why the
NWS HeatRisk product is at such high levels. This together with
H5 high center just south of the area will lead to highs about 2
to 5 degrees warmer on Thursday mainly across central and WRN
counties. A boundary in the east will again temper highs slightly
there. Have hoisted a Heat Advisory for most of the area on
Thursday based on areas that we feel have the highest probability
of seeing 105 degrees temperatures, or in case of the southeast,
105 degree apparent temperature. This meant excluding Cimarron,
Deaf Smith, Beaver, Lipscomb and Hemphill Counties from the
advisory for now. Some of the locations may be fall just short of
the advisory criteria, but given the HeatRisk pinging major, went
forward with the advisory.

We still may see a couple brief showers or storms mainly along
the stationary boundary across the ERN Panhandles this aftn and
evening again again tomorrow but POPs are less than 10 percent
today and around 10 percent in the east on Thursday. A ridge
riding s/wv is forecast to produce some showers and storms as it
moves out of SE CO Thu evening. The SRN extend of these will
impact the NW Panhandles. There is some wind shear, but CAPE is
very limited. Hot temps and high DCAPE so suggest a wind threat
with this activity and SPC has included the OK Panhandle in a
marginal SVR risk area for wind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Outflow from the Thu night activity is forecast to stall across
the CEN or SRN Panhandles on Friday. Tons of high H7 Theta-e
associated with the monsoon plume are forecast to combine with
increased low level moisture from the Gulf to provide anomalously
high moisture and model soundings show SBCAPE improving to
1500-2000 j/kg despite ridiculously warm H5 temps near -2 deg C.
In addition, there is actually still some wind shear to work with
as NAM and GFS both indicate bulk effective shear of 20 to 40
along the boundary mainly due to directional shear. One wonders
if we will see any supercell structure similar to July 4th event,
but CAPE is not as high as that even and mid level temps are much
warmer. If we do, right mover motion is WSW similar to July 4th.
Again, SVR convective parameters suggest mainly a wind threat with
these and suspect SPC will end up including a marginal for Friday
eventually. High moisture suggests a heavy rainfall threat as
potential for very high rates may exist and if everything comes
together localized areas could see 2 inches in less than an hour.
Onion soundings in the evening suggest a threat for heat bursts
as well. Main caveats for Friday will be exact boundary location
and timing of the ridge riding S/WV. Heat advisory conditions seem
unlikely given this set-up unless the boundary stalls further
north. Some models develop convection very early across the area
which would likely keep much of the area well below 100 even. Gut
feeling is the storms will be forming by early afternoon. NBM
trended cooler and left it as is for now, but it could still be
too hot near the boundary location.

As the ridge builds just north of the area on Saturday once
again, the southern Panhandles remain below a weakness that will
be drifting west under the ridge. There is enough lingering moisture
appears to suggests at least isolated storms mainly across the
southern TX Panhandle. This would likely preclude temps much above
100 once again. The high center will build more over the area
again Sunday and into early next week and as it does, temperatures
will soar above 100 once again as moisture decreases. Monday
currently has the highest probabilities for seeing temperatures
greater than 104 at anywhere from 20 percent in the far west to
70+ percent in the PDC and Canadian River Valley from Miami to
Boys Ranch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

No aviation concerns with VFR conditions through the period.
coverage of any ISO shras or tstms is too little to mention in the
TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drought cured grasses with ERCs approaching 80th percentile, low
RH near 15 percent and SSW winds near 20 mph will lead to elevated
fire weather conditions across the central and western zones on
Thursday. RFTIs are 1-2 but are very close to thresholds and could
easily jump to 3-4s. Any lightning in the NW on Thursday will also
cause concerns for starts. We likely will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for Thursday given these factors before tomorrow.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ001>004-
     006>009-011>015-017>020-317.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ007-008-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM....MJG
AVIATION...MJG