239
FXUS64 KAMA 311757
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1257 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Thunderstorm chances for the northern CWA on Monday. Severe
chances are low, but possible.

- Daily thunderstorm chances return Monday and persist through the
  end of the week.

- Increasing confidence in substantial rainfall for areas in the
  Panhandles this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

H500 height rises aided by a weak frontal passage this morning are
keeping atmospheric conditions stable and skies clear today. Clear
skies and light winds will allow for heat to build today, reaching
the upper 90`s and even into the low 100`s in some places in the SW
CWA.

Winds shifting back to southerly on Sunday afternoon will allow for
moisture to build back into the Panhandles overnight into Monday.
Skies remain clear and winds remain light overnight as well,
allowing heat to once again build throughout the Panhandles.

Perturbations developing along the ridge building in the southern
plains on Monday will re-establish a weak lee-side low pressure
center at the surface in central/eastern CO. Positive H700 theta-e
advection into the northern CWA will promote an increase in
moisture quality and depth into the evening hours. A surface
trough SE of the weak surface low pressure center is responsible
for lifting tomorrow, with deep mixing beforehand responsible for
mixing out CIN. This will allow storms to develop in our northern
CWA (likely in the western TX/central OK Panhandle), however, the
best instability and shear are displaced N and NE of the
Panhandles. So, it is questionable whether storms will be able to
reach severe thresholds before exiting the FA to the N/NE.

Temperatures on Monday will likely be just as warm in the south and
warmer in the northern CWA. Clear conditions and southerly flow will
allow heat to continue to build. Increasing winds in the southern
CWA will occur before the northern CWA, and may stifle high
temperatures slightly in comparison to Sunday`s high temperatures.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An active weather pattern for daily thunderstorm and persistent
rainfall chances return this week. Ridging persists over the
Panhandles until a weak upper-level trough propagates in from the
west. Continued disturbances in this slowly propagating weak trough
will provide continued support for precipitation throughout the
week. Continued SE/S flow will build substantial moisture into the
Panhandles to reinforce the pattern of continued rainfall.

Although the entire week has persistent PoPs, thunderstorm chances
will vary day to day. This is much more of a summertime convective
pattern, with weak upper-level support, which will promote pulsing
thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out as a
possibility for any day this week. There are currently some model
disagreements where the best axis of rainfall will end up. A re-
circulation of mid-level dry air into the Panhandles, as well as how
quickly the trough to our west propagates east in the coming week
will likely determine where the axis of highest QPF ends up.
Ensembles show average and median QPF`s are close, indicating higher
confidence in a substantial rainfall event throughout the week.

Temperatures throughout the week are expected to remain in the 80`s,
possibly only reaching maximums in the 70`s on Wednesday. Next
weekend, maximum temperatures will likely crack the 90`s once again
after persistent cloud cover begins to move out of the area.

Ferguson

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the 18Z TAF period.
Winds are beginning their shift from N back to S currently. They
will remain relatively light for most of the TAF period, however,
LLWS is expected at all three TAF sites (AMA, DHT, GUY) from 08Z to
12Z on Monday.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...23