Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
818 FXUS64 KAMA 160526 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1226 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - A new system is expected to bring chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday with a low potential for thunderstorms to be strong to severe. - Drier and cooler weather is expected this weekend with potential for lows to drop into the mid 30s Saturday night into Sunday morning. - A brief warm up Monday will be followed by another cool dry air mass that will see highs hold in the 60s to 70s clear into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Model agreement expects the continued progression of the upper- level trough to slowly break down the present dry layer over the Panhandles. As this layer breaks down, CAMs expect moisture to fill in and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms across the Western Panhandles this afternoon and evening. Impact wise most CAMs have seen CAPE values on the lower end with MUCAPE staying around 1000 to 1500 J/kg . However, most of the CAMs are also seeing bulk wind shear hold around 30kt, which could help keep a thunderstorm or two together long enough for it to intensify into a severe storm. Another point of interesting to watch is that our DCAPE is staying above 1000 J/kg with most model sounding seeing a decent dry layer still holding at the surface. This could support us seeing strong outflow winds regardless of how much a storm intensify with evening a basic thunderstorm capable of nearing 60 mph. Regardless, a much drier air mass is expected to follow behind a cold front moving late Thursday night into Friday. This front will see chances of storms push further east for Friday with best chances that evening holding in our eastern most stack of counties at around 10 to 20%. As for temperatures, look for highs in the low 80s today slowly transition to mid to low 70s behind the front Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Dry and cooler weather will look to prevail moving into the weekend with most models expecting a secondary cold front to sneak into the Panhandles thanks to another trough quickly pushing in behind the present one. This act will keep afternoon temperatures on the cooler side through the weekend with most locations dipping into the low 70s by Sunday. However, what will need to be watch is the potential for frost for Saturday night into Sunday morning. At this time most models are in agreement that low temperatures should stay in the mid 30 to low 40s with only a 10% chance or less for the far northwest to reach freezing temperatures. As for Monday, a brief high pressure system does give us a quick temperature swing back into the 80s, but models expect a new trough to brush our north and bring another round of dry and cooler air. This air mass will look to drop temperature into 60s to low 70s on Tuesday. Meanwhile, afternoon highs are expected to hold in the 70s clear into Thursday with most models seeing flow staying northwesterly through the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours. Some LLWS is possible overnight, mainly at KDHT or KGUY, but opted to not include it in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south with gusts increasing up to 30 kts during the daytime hours. Winds will slowly decrease after sunset. Isolated thunderstorms may develop late in this TAF cycle, but confidence in impacts to the sites is not high enough to mention. Muscha && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...05