Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
520 FXUS64 KAMA 132339 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 639 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 -Favorable weather pattern throughout the coming week for near daily rain chances, most days favoring the western Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 Still seeing some leftover low topped thunderstorms in the wake of retreating front in the far SE TX Panhandle within the (+) H850 theta-e advection regime. Any leftover precip should decrease through 18Z as high pressure aloft provides subsidence in the region. The main high pressure system that has resulted in high temperatures in many locations as high as 100 to near 110 degrees in some locations over the past few days should be on the move out of here...after today. The main H500 high pressure elongated across the Red River Valley as of the latest satellite obs. This should result in high temperatures by this afternoon ranging from the mid 90s to 100-103 degrees in a few locations. On the western periphery of the aforementioned high pressure system, moisture transport with notable H850-700 theta-e advection and daytime heating will generate showers and thunderstorms over central and eastern NM, that should gradually move into the western Panhandles later this afternoon and into the evening hours. Latest sfc obs also shows retreating front into the northern/northwestern Panhandles, which could also be a focal point for some storms to develop this afternoon. Although storm chances overall to reach severe thunderstorm criteria is low, we cannot completely rule out a strong to severe storm or two, with DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting the potential for a strong downburst with the more robust updrafts from more established storms during peak daytime heating. The western/northwestern Panhandles will once again be favored for diurnally driver storms on the periphery of the main H500 high as it continues to shift into the lower Mississippi River Valley by tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 90s across the Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 The main H500 high over the SE CONUS will slowly compress going towards the end of the forecast period. Back across the western CONUS, a series of mid level trough axis will traverse the central and northern Rockies. For the Panhandles, starting Tuesday and through the remainder of the forecast period, there are several days in this forecast period, aided by the mid level trough across the western CONUS moving east, will result in several days with rain chances above 50%, mainly favoring the western Panhandles, with more widespread higher chances for Tuesday. Will monitor closely with rain chances each day as we go through the coming week. Temperatures will remain above average to potential cool off to near average by this coming weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Breezy south wind 15-20kts gusting up to 35kts mainly in the 15-03z time period will be the main issue, but KDHT could see some isolated storms pop up over the Terminal in the first 4 hours of the TAF period, and have noted a PROB30 to cover that. KGUY might have showers/storms in the 2-5z time frame, but low confidence and will note with amendments. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...89