959
FXUS64 KAMA 311707
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

- Very low rain chances today through Tuesday.

- Rain chances increase mid-week with the return of weather
  systems.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Today and Monday will be overall calmer weather days as it is very
unlikely for any weather system to pass directly across the
panhandles. Instead the closest weather system will keep eastward
of the panhandles providing only minor increase in instability on
Monday. This means that there is little in way of forcing that
will be able to take advantage of the moisture that is present
across the region to form rain showers and thunderstorms. Instead
we will have to rely mainly on daytime heating to spark off the
rain showers and thunderstorms. While temperatures will be warm
for each day they will have higher chances of not reaching
convective temperature that would form rain showers and
thunderstorms. So for today there is a very low chance for any
rain showers and thunderstorms. Monday with the small increase of
instability from the weather system to the east will have a very
low to low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Tuesday and most of Wednesday will most likely remain a period of
generally calmer weather. The lack of weather system to take
advantage of the moisture means that there remains only a very low
to low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms.

late Wednesday and Thursday still has a moderate chance for a
large scale weather system to push a cool front across the
southern plains. This would bring another round of rain showers
and thunderstorms to the panhandles. However there still remains
some uncertainty in the placement and intensity of the cool front
which directly impacts the overall extent and vigor of any of the
rain showers and thunderstorms. So the exact details on the
impacts this weather system will have on the panhandles remain
elusive.

Beyond Thursday the pattern for the souther plains has higher odds
than not to be in either a northerly or northwesterly flow. Right
now there is no hints of another weather system moving through the
southern plains. However such a weather pattern is generally
favorable for such an event to take place. So for now it looks
like active weather with rain showers and thunderstorms remains on
the table for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR at all terminals for the next 24 hours and across the
panhandles. Winds will be generally weak and see a slow
directional shift clockwise through the next 24 hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98