190
FXUS64 KAMA 211818
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
118 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

 - Widespread heat across the area with potential expansion of
   heat headlines. Several areas expected to be 105-108 today and
   a degree or two warmer on Saturday continuing into Monday

 - Isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection possible this
   afternoon and again on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Satellite imagery showing remnants of eastern OK MCS moving south-
southeast towards the Arklatex. Outflow from this MCS and associated
southeasterly winds are in western OK and some enhancement in the cu
field is noted at this time just south of GAG. Surface obs showing
westerly winds over the central and southern TX Panhandle while
north-northwest winds are observed in the northern panhandle. Models
showing that surface winds in our area are forecast to become
southerly late this afternoon and as convective temps are reached a
few isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible for a short
time. Warm mid level temps and lack of shear will preclude any real
storm organization although there could be some gusty winds as these
storms collapse. On Saturday a similar situation can be expected
although there will be a boundary oriented more northwest to
southeast through the CWA. Widely scattered storms are expected in
the late afternoon across this area. CAPE values will not be
impressive, generally 750-1000 j/kg. However, inverted V profiles,
DCAPE values over 1700 and temp-dwpt spreads of 50-60 degrees
suggests strong winds would be the main threat with these storms.

The upper level high pressure and ridge continue to amplify and
slowly shift east. This will lead to hot temps and heat headlines
through the early portion of the weekend with temps of 105-109.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

High pressure ridge shifts slowly east and as such the hottest
temperatures can be expected Saturday through Monday. A shortwave
trough riding over the ridge by Monday will help temper the ridge
and allow for more substantial convective development over the
higher terrain in CO/NM. The steering pattern will be favorable for
this activity to enter into the panhandle and therefore pops will
increase.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

High pressure to keep VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Coverage of
convection both days expected to remain sparse and will not mention
in the TAFS at this time. Winds at Guymon will stay easterly
while DHT and AMA will become more southerly later this
afternoon and evening. Gusty winds to 25-30kt Sat morning at DHT
and AMA will subside by mid day.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ005-008>010-014-
     015-018>020-317.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...KP