232
FXUS64 KAMA 131738
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

 -Favorable weather pattern throughout the coming week for near
  daily rain chances, most days favoring the western Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Still seeing some leftover low topped thunderstorms in the wake of
retreating front in the far SE TX Panhandle within the (+) H850
theta-e advection regime. Any leftover precip should decrease
through 18Z as high pressure aloft provides subsidence in the
region.

The main high pressure system that has resulted in high
temperatures in many locations as high as 100 to near 110 degrees
in some locations over the past few days should be on the move out
of here...after today. The main H500 high pressure elongated
across the Red River Valley as of the latest satellite obs. This
should result in high temperatures by this afternoon ranging from
the mid 90s to 100-103 degrees in a few locations.

On the western periphery of the aforementioned high pressure
system, moisture transport with notable H850-700 theta-e advection
and daytime heating will generate showers and thunderstorms over
central and eastern NM, that should gradually move into the
western Panhandles later this afternoon and into the evening
hours. Latest sfc obs also shows retreating front into the
northern/northwestern Panhandles, which could also be a focal
point for some storms to develop this afternoon. Although storm
chances overall to reach severe thunderstorm criteria is low, we
cannot completely rule out a strong to severe storm or two, with
DCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg supporting the potential for a
strong downburst with the more robust updrafts from more
established storms during peak daytime heating.

The western/northwestern Panhandles will once again be favored
for diurnally driver storms on the periphery of the main H500 high
as it continues to shift into the lower Mississippi River Valley
by tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the
lower to upper 90s across the Panhandles.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

The main H500 high over the SE CONUS will slowly compress going
towards the end of the forecast period. Back across the western
CONUS, a series of mid level trough axis will traverse the central
and northern Rockies. For the Panhandles, starting Tuesday and
through the remainder of the forecast period, there are several
days in this forecast period, aided by the mid level trough across
the western CONUS moving east, will result in several days with
rain chances above 50%, mainly favoring the western Panhandles,
with more widespread higher chances for Tuesday. Will monitor
closely with rain chances each day as we go through the coming
week. Temperatures will remain above average to potential cool off
to near average by this coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 18Z TAF
period. Could see VCTS for KDHT around 00Z, but confidence not
high enough to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be out of
the south and southwest at 10-20 kts, with higher gusts at times.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29