992
FXUS64 KAMA 250757
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
257 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

- Dry conditions, light winds, and above average temperatures are
  very likely for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles through early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Nice Fall days are very likely for today and tomorrow for the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Highs are forecast to be in the 80s
with light winds and clear skies.

Early this morning, the H500 RAP analysis shows ridging across
much of the central CONUS extending across the Rockies with a low
pressure system sitting near the Missouri and Illinois state
line. This synoptic pattern will essentially remain unchanged
through Thursday night. H850 temperatures should rise up into the
lower 20s Celsius during the afternoon hours today. These warmer
low level temperatures will aid in warming up temperatures up to
the 80s for highs today. The upper level pattern will also favor
light winds around 10 mph or less along with clear skies across
the Panhandles. Given the upper level pattern is similar for
Thursday, the surface conditions remain the same as well, but with
afternoon highs a few degrees warmer into the upper 80s for some
locations.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

The uneventful weather pattern looks to remain in place from late
this week into early next week for the Panhandles. Highs will
generally remain above average with light winds and dry conditions
during this time frame.

High pressure is forecast to remain in place across the Rockies
late this week through the weekend. To the east, a cutoff low
pressure system looks to meander around the Midwest to the
Southeastern CONUS through at least this upcoming weekend.
Tropical Storm Helene (forecast to be Hurricane Helene), is
progged to wrap around the low pressure system to our east.
Unfortunately, the system looks to remain well off to the east
which results in no impacts to the southern High Plains. With
that being said, the above mentioned synoptic pattern favors dry
conditions, above average high temperatures, and light winds.
These conditions should persist during the long term with perhaps
a cold front moving across the Panhandles on Monday night into
Tuesday next week.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

No flight restrictions are forecast with this TAF cycle with VFR
conditions expected. Light winds will be under 10 kts with clear
skies over the next 24 hours.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                83  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  83  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              82  51  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  87  56  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              84  53  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  83  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               83  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 82  50  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  82  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                84  53  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                84  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   83  54  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                84  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              86  55  86  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05