640
FXUS64 KAMA 311114
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

- Rain chances fall off Sunday through Tuesday with chances
  returning mid to late week.

- Below average temperatures continue to end August and start
  September.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Relatively quieter conditions and continued below average
temperatures are expected to prevail to start the week. Northwest
flow aloft will usher in drier mid-level air and doesn`t appear to
provide any notable disturbances to initiate precipitation. However,
if any subtle perturbations within the flow materialize and manage
to take advantage of whatever moisture is available, a few spotty
showers/storms can`t be ruled out the next couple afternoons (<20%
chance). High temperatures will hold steady in the 80s today and
tomorrow, with Monday topping out a few degrees warmer across the
board compared to today.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Model data mostly agrees that the synoptic pattern will fail to
provide any weather maker to the region on Tuesday, maintaining
highs in the 80s. From midweek onward, ensemble data still
supports a similar pattern to this past week with another closed
low near the Great Lakes region, maintaining northwest flow while
moisture is transported to the Panhandles. Weak cold fronts and
storm systems have low to medium probabilities of creating
precipitation each day Wed-Sat. Another byproduct of this pattern
will be a couple cooler days with potential for highs in the 70s
rather than the 80s. Regardless, we have 40-70% probabilities for
below average temperatures to start September.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the north and northeast,
becoming more variable at 5-10 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ004-005-009>020-
     317.

OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29