252
FXUS64 KAMA 171827
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
127 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026


 - High pressure ridge aloft strengthens over the
   southwestern US this week.

 - This overall pattern looks to continue for the next several days.
   Thunderstorm activity will have the potential to drift into
   mainly our western and northwestern areas starting on Wednesday


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Morning visible imagery showing overnight MCS in OK moving east into
AR. Northeasterly winds behind outflow boundary are evident in sfc
obs over western OK...but in the panhandle areas winds have veered
to the southeast. Latest model runs have backed off on depicting
thunderstorms this afternoon over the eastern panhandle area...and
will leave any chances at 15% or less for this afternoon. On Tuesday
afternoon a few isolated thunderstorms could affect mainly the
western OK panhandle area but coverage will be sparse and chances
are low. Look for temperatures to slowly rise the next 48 hours with
heat advisories becoming a decent possibility by mid week. At this
time the primary areas for this would be the Palo Duro Canyon area
and the southeastern corner of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Better chance for thunderstorms in the area looks to be later
Wednesday afternoon/evening as the upper high amplifies over the
southwest US. Outflow boundary from overnight/morning convection in
sw KS will drop into the northern panhandles and extend into central
OK. By mid-late aftn isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
develop and be draped along the boundary from central OK into
portions of the eastern TX panhandle. Diurnal convection from New
Mexico will push into the west and northwest and then begin
dissipating as it moves across the OK/TX panhandle Wed evening. Hot
temps and heat products are likely over portions of the area during
this time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southerly
winds will become southwesterly by morning and then with gusts
increasing to 25kt by midday Tuesday.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...KP