018
FXUS64 KAMA 091803
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

- An isolated thunderstorm or two is still possible in the eastern
  combined Panhandles this afternoon/evening. A severe potential
  remains for hail and straightline winds, although confidence is
  low.

- A cold front tonight will bring temps down to near normal for
  Sunday. Also may bring some low clouds and light drizzle or
  light showers to the central and eastern Panhandles.

- Hot temperatures return Tuesday, of which places like Palo Duro
  may see temps in the lower 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Today, will be watching the lower level moisture supply for
potential storms in the east and potential shower activity late in
the overnight and Sunday morning time period. For this afternoon,
there is still a bit of uncertainty on the amount of surface
moisture that will be available for instability in the eastern two
stacks of counties. Some CAMs have quite robust couple to three
storms popping in the east this afternoon, like the NAM that is
more generous with the surface moisture. While others like the
HRRR develop one or two storms that quickly move into western
Oklahoma before gaining full strength. Not really looking at a
true dryline with steep moisture gradients but there will be some
dry air in the west fighting for space with the moist air across
eastern areas of the Panhandles until a cold front moves through
late tonight.

There have been some increasing agreeance between guidance for
dewpoints staying well in the 50s this afternoon across the east.
SBCAPE values, if any and all CIN erodes, are looking to be
between 1500 and 2500 J/Kg. Also, effective bulk shear is progged
to be around 35 kts. If a storm can mature and hold its strength
ping pong ball to golf ball size hail cannot be ruled out. Bases
of these storms are expected to be high with LCLs around 3km
making the threat for tornados pretty low while increasing the
threat for straightline winds. A storm would have to locally alter
the atmospheric conditions for a tornado to form. All in all, the
Texas Panhandle should not be dealing with strong to severe
storms longer than 2 hours this afternoon/evening as they should
move off into western OK fairly quickly. Earliest start time will
be around 3 PM but most likely around 5 PM with severe storms
pretty much done by 8 PM. That doesn`t mean there won`t be any
activity in the area just the severe aspect with maybe some
lingering showery stuff hanging out. Could still potentially get
some high based virga showers in the western Panhandles this
evening as well with hints of a disturbance from some model
guidance. If any of these virga showers do form they will be cable
of producing some strong wind gusts with strong inverted Vs in
the forecast soundings.

Then tonight, a cold front
will fill in from the north, mainly after midnight. This front is
expected to bring some breezy winds lasting into the late AM hours
and also bring low clouds with chances of light showers to maybe
some drizzle.

Tomorrow morning, surface winds are expected to be out of the north
around 20-25 mph with some gusts in the 35 to maybe 40 mph behind
the front. The higher values of these ranges is expected to favor
the western combined Panhandles. Td`s behind this front are expected
to maintain in the 40s. A shortwave is expected as well that may
help some shower development across the combined Panhandles
especially in the central to eastern Panhandles where moisture will
be deeper. Further west, west to northwest of Amarillo, low clouds
may still be present with a little bit of a drizzle. Looking further
up in the atmosphere on forecast soundings, the mid to upper levels
are looking much drier out over the west to northwestern combined
Panhandles. The front itself will bring cooler temperatures,
however, cloud cover through much of the daytime will help keep
temperatures cooler as well. Highs are progged to be in the 60s.
Enjoy the cool weather as it will not last long.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Monday, upper level ridging will start to build back into the area
from the west. This will help rebound temperatures into the 80s for
Mon afternoon. Tuesday onward, H5 heights rise to near 590 dam
allowing for temperatures to reach well into the 90s, even lower
100s for the common hot spots in the TX Panhandle. Palo Duro Canyon
may even attempt to reach 105 depending on how much the winds can
mix heat trapped at the canyon floor.

The extended period is looking to remain dry. However, Tds in the
40s may lingering across at least some portions of the combined
Panhandles and any ripples in the ridge may pop a couple of isolated
thunderstorms especially under the heat expected Tue onward. For now
do not have PoPs in the forecast until Friday evening that reach
near 15 percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through about 12Z Sunday.
Southerly winds are expected to shift to the north after 06Z
Sunday behind a cold front, and pick up to around 20-25 kts
lasting through about 18Z Sunday. Gusts may be in the 30 to 40 kt
range too between 06Z and 18Z as well. Thunderstorms will be
possible in the Panhandles late this afternoon but should stay
well east of the terminals. Behind the front tonight some light
showers may be present especially in the 12Z to 18Z time period
but confidence is low on impacts to the central to western
Panhandles. However, some low clouds are expected to bring MVFR
conditions after 10Z and lasting through much of the latter half
of the TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03