965
FXUS64 KAMA 100546
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Wind speeds expected to increase across the Panhandles this
weekend. Fire weather concerns remain low.

Our next cold front is expected to arrive on Monday. Highs will
see a 10-15 degree disparity across the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

High pressure aloft prevails over the CWA during the short term
period. Perturbations are still forecast to develop of the northwest
axis of the ridge and allow for column of precipitation over the
Four Corners Region and intermountain west. That said, none of this
activity is forecast to transition into the Plains until next week,
as the H500 High will be anchored over our region through the
weekend. By Saturday, a mid level jet is expected to develop east of
a lee-side low positioned over the Front Range. A tightening
pressure gradient at the surface and down slope winds will create
amplified wind speeds throughout the combined Panhandles tomorrow,
favoring the northern zones of our FA. Highs should remain stagnate
and above normal through the short term period. They will range in
the 80`s on both days while lows stay in the 50`s tonight. If
strong, southerly wind flow continues during the overnight hours
this weekend, lows will rise into the 60`s both Saturday and Sunday
morning. Fire weather concerns still remain low, at this time, due
to mostly uncured fuels reported from our TFS sources. Also, minimum
RH values should generally remain above 30% this weekend throughout
most of the area. Current max RFTIs are purely wind driven. Still,
wind speeds on Saturday will be enough to sustain a fire if one can
get going.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

As mentioned in the short term discussion, strong winds generated
from a lee-side low in SE Colorado will continue through Sunday
afternoon. The wind direction will shift Sunday night into Monday
morning as a cold front moves in, but winds speeds should stay
breezy once again overnight. Temperatures on Sunday should remain in
the 80`s before drastically cooling down on Monday.

High pressure become suppressed once the upper trough moves in on
Monday. The ridge attempts to build back over the CWA by mid next
week. Currently, long range guidance is reluctant to have heights
increase to the levels we are at today. Beyond the current extended,
long range models attempt to reintroduce another large scale trough.
So, if the ridge builds back over the region, it may not linger for
long.

By Monday, highs are forecast to decrease to the 60`s and 70`s
behind the front. Precipitation is possible throughout the day
within the combine Panhandles, but showers are expected to be more
scattered instead of widespread. Thunderstorm chances also continue
to be low since showers will be forming in the wake of a stable
airmass. Highs will then slowly increase back into the lower 80`s by
the mid week. Chances of precipitation will drop off by Tuesday and
drier weather conditions may settle in once again.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. The winds
will be southerly and weak during the overnight hours and gusty
during the daytime hours at all terminals.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98