568
FXUS64 KAMA 222341
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

-Rain and a few thunderstorms will be possible each day starting
 Saturday, and expanding in coverage daily from Sunday through
 most of next week across the Panhandles.

-Will have to watch for flooding concerns next week due to heavy
 rainfall possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Dry conditions will continue to be present across all of the
Panhandles through tomorrow as latest satellite analysis shows
dry air throughout the column. In-conjunction with H500
northeasterly flow, large scale subsidence should keep dry
conditions through tomorrow with near average high temperatures
in the low 90s this afternoon. By tomorrow evening, the first of
several disturbances in the mid levels as H500 flow shifts to
northwesterly as the main high elongated southeastward into west
Texas. This will result in around 20-25% chance of a shower or
thunderstorm tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s with low temperatures tomorrow
night in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A deepening H500 trough over the eastern 2/3 CONUS, in-conjunction
with a building ridge over the intermountain west will set the
stage for persistent NW H500 flow and perturbations within the
mean flow for daily rain and thunderstorm chances throughout the
long term forecast period. From the previous 24-36 hours in the
model trends, latest 22/12Z model and numerical guidance and
latest GFS/ECMWF/-AIFS ensemble members have had a slight drop
off in percentage (now around 30-40% of members) with widespread
potential of over 2" of total rainfall starting Sunday through
Thursday. Slight adjustments in the axis of best moisture
transport could increase or decrease rain trends, so we will have
to watch closely. Repeat rounds of heavy rainfall will pose a
risk of flash flooding, especially early next week with PWAT
values around 1.5" which is +2 S.D. for August climatology.
Temperatures throughout the forecast period will likely be below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions at all terminals for the next 24 hours. There is a
very low chance for rain showers and even thunderstorms for
Saturday evening. The chances of these occurring during the TAF
period is to low to be reflected within the TAFs for now. The
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms increases for Sunday
morning so there is higher confidence that they will be reflected
within later TAF packages. For now an increase in cloud cover for
the last line is all that is being reflected within the current
TAFs. Otherwise generally light winds will be present across the
panhandles.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...98