470
FXUS64 KAMA 041759
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today. Brief, low-end
critical fire weather conditions cannot be ruled out.

Showers are expected late Tuesday into Wednesday, with relatively
higher confidence in the northern Panhandles. There is a low
chance for isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Frost or freeze conditions will be possible Wednesday night
across the central and northern Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Warm temperatures continue as forecast for today. A few locations
in the southern Texas Panhandle have already hit 90 degrees and
additional locations in our eastern zones are expected to follow
suite. Elevated fire weather conditions also persist this
afternoon due to breezy, westerly winds and low minimum relative
humidity. Based off of our maximum RFTI values and ERC
Percentiles, conditions are near-critical for areas in the
southern Texas Panhandle; however, criteria is still not being
met for a Red Flag Warning.

Tonight, the cold front is expected to move in quicker than
previous model runs have suggest. Surface winds have been increase
for Tuesday 1 AM to 7 PM, and maximum temperatures have been
adjusted down for the CWA. The majority of the region should be in
the 60`s range for temperatures tomorrow, but the southern Texas
Panhandle should still be in the 70`s once the front stalls out
and retreats back into that zone during the afternoon. PoPs
continue to be cut through the Day 2 period, but the Oklahoma
Panhandle and northern Texas Panhandle is still most favored to
receive precipitation through this time frame. QPF still isn`t
impressive for those areas, but our northwest zones may still
manage to accumulate at least 0.25".

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

No major changes have been made to the long term period.

PoPs continue to bleed into the Wednesday time frame. New model
data still is not favorable for PoPs to increase from their
current values. Once CAMs are incorporated, we may see a
continued decrease in QPF. For now they have been accepted. Highs
will rebound after our cool down on Wednesday. Freeze potential
is still favorable for our northwest zones Thursday morning. The
bias-corrected models are still lower that the raw data, but even
the 00Z LREF displays a 42% for temperatures to range between 30
to 35 degrees. Friday onward, anticipate above average
temperatures to continue for the rest of the period. On Sunday,
our next cold front should arrive, but temperatures may only drop
back down to average values for the season.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18Z TAF
period. Model signals are beginning to show MVFR ceilings moving
into KDHT and KGUY tomorrow morning. However, confidence is not
high enough at this time to make mentions in the current TAF
package. Changed may be made in future forecasts that add in this
feature.

Strong, westerly winds are forecast to continue for the rest of
the day. The wind direction will shift northeasterly behind the
cold front tonight. Breezy winds should linger through the rest of
the TAF period.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55