Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
020 FXUS64 KAMA 241836 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 136 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 -Rain and thunderstorms chances for most of the Panhandles on Sunday, with also flash flooding potential, especially for the NW Panhandles. -Potential for more rain chances by the end of next work week, favoring the southern TX Panhandle. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 The main H500 low pressure system centered over central AZ continues to be the main weather maker throughout the short term forecast period. For the remainder of Saturday, most of the heavier rain and thunderstorms will mainly be across central and eastern NM. The main moisture transport axis, along with the most pronounced instability and wind shear favors central and eastern NM through tonight. On the eastern periphery of this corridor across the far western Panhandles, on and off areas of rain should move south to north across these areas. Rain chances really drop off east of US-385 through this evening. Going through tonight into Sunday morning, as the main H500 low moves into the Four Corners region, the main moisture transport axis will shift into the southern High Plains and the Panhandles region. This should result in rounds of rain and some thunderstorms. Main hazard to continue to watch is the potential for flash flooding with the potential for repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall rates and/or rain over already saturated soil. Highest chances for these conditions favor the western and northwestern combined Panhandles. Depending on if we can have some breaks in the rain with even some clearing during Sunday afternoon and evening, there is a window for the potential of some strong to near severe storms. H850-700 (+)theta-e advection into the Panhandles, coupled with a developing H850 LLJ, we could see some thunderstorms develop in eastern NM and move into the Panhandles as either a QLCS segment and/or loosely cluster supercells. The main factor limiting these strong to potentially severe thunderstorm setup would be destabilizing the overall ATM profile. Obs throughout the day on Sunday will dictate how this unfolds. In the most active setup, CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg as we get breaks in the activity could set up initial large hail with earlier onset storms of up to quarter size in the most vigorous updrafts, but quickly translate to strong to damaging wind gusts threat. Cannot completely rule out a tornado with pronounced LL directional shear. Highest chance for a strong storm in this active setup would be the western Panhandles, closest to the NM stateline. On the opposite side of the scenario, which most of the guidance still favors, cloud cover could hang tough and limit overall instability and lapse rates, even if activity in NM does reach the Panhandles. Will monitor closely and update accordingly as we progress through the day on Sunday. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the low to mid 60s in the western Panhandles to lower and mid 70s for the eastern Panhandles. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 After the remnant rain chances from the system over the weekend moves through the central and eastern Panhandles on Monday, will will then dry out through mid week. Latest 24/12Z model and numerical data does show another disturbance moving in from the Rio Grande River valley later this coming work week. Highest rain chances for the southern Texas Panhandle by later this week, but will monitor trends and update forecast accordingly. High temperatures throughout next work week will be near to above average for late October. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026 VFR conditions are expected to start the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Between 06-12Z, MVFR and at times IFR cigs will begin to move into all TAF sites and will remain throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the south- southeast at 10-20 kts, with gusts of 25-30 kts at times. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...29