988
FXUS64 KAMA 181803
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

-Watching frost potential early tomorrow morning, especially for
 the northwestern Panhandles.

-Breezy conditions continue with temperatures bouncing from above
 to near normal through the rest of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

As the day progresses this afternoon, winds are expected to turn
from westerly to northerly as a surface high travels south into
the area. As of this writing, already seeing winds pick up in the
northwestern combined Panhandles to around 25 mph with gust 35
mph. A surface low is exiting the area to the east/southeast with
surface high pressure to the north currently creating these
breezy conditions. The main push of CAA is not expected until this
evening with expected H85 temps still around 18 degrees C this
afternoon allowing for temperatures in the 70s with maybe some
lower 80s in the far southeastern TX Panhandle. Tonight, around
sunset and there after, H85 temperatures are progged to drop to
around 7 to 8 degrees C with the CAA moving in. As the surface
high centers over the area, after midnight winds are expected to
fall off quite a bit, becoming mostly calm. The calm winds,
cooler H85 temperatures, and clear skies will allow for some
chilly morning lows tomorrow. There is a potential for frost in
the northwestern combined Panhandles going into tomorrow morning
with temperatures expected to fall to around 35 degrees or
cooler. Would not rule out some isolated areas dropping to 32 very
briefly depending on surrounding terrain, and if winds can drop
completely off for a bit of time to allow extra cooling.

Tomorrow, the surface high is expected to quickly exit the area.
This will allow breezy southwest winds into the western combined
Panhandles warming temps into the mid to upper 70s across the west.
A slightly more delayed response to warm air advection in the east
may keep temperatures in the lower 70s. H5 heights will continue to
rise Sunday night with H85 temperatures progged to return to near 18
degrees C. A surface trough associated with the warming H85
temperatures will keep the pressure gradient across the Panhandles
fairly steep contributing to breezy nocturnal winds around 15
mph overnight into Monday morning. With the winds being up over
night, some of the warmer temperatures aloft will be able to mix
to the surface bringing a noticeable difference from tonights
cool temperatures. Lows are progged to be 10 to 15 degrees F
warmer for Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Expecting to see a continuing pattern of warm breezy days with
above normal temperatures, followed by weak cold front cooling
temperatures to near normal in the long term. Monday looks to be
the warmest day of the week before the next front late Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday will be similar to tonight, with
conditions bringing the potential for frost once again to the
northwestern combined Panhandles behind the next front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Expecting clear skies and VFR conditions with high pressure
moving in at the surface behind a front. Expect breezy northerly
winds until the high fully reaches the Panhandles then winds
should become calm and variable after 06Z Sunday. Towards the end
of this TAF period, winds should return to the southwest and pick
back up once again.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ001>003-006-
     007.

OK...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36