310
FXUS64 KAMA 081119
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the southern
  and eastern Panhandles and some of the storms could become
  severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary
  hazards.

- Thunderstorm chances may continue each afternoon into the
  evening across the Panhandles.

- Very hot temperatures are expected all of this week with the
  potential for heat illnesses if proper precautions are not taken
  for those that are doing activities outdoors, particularly on
  Monday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Height rises are expected throughout the day today as high pressure
builds in over the southern US extending towards the Great Lakes
region. Temperatures will rise in response to stronger WAA at H850
on Monday afternoon. Highs during the peak heating of the afternoon
should reach the upper 90s to 100s across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. Very hot temperatures may reach or exceed 105 degrees at
the bottom of Palo Duro Canyon State Park and in the lower elevation
of the Canadian River Valley, so a Heat Advisory has been issued for
these locations given that potential. Heat illnesses may result if
proper precautions are not taken for those that are outside. A
surface trough and a weak surface boundary will set up from
southwest to northeast across the south central TX Panhandle to the
eastern OK Panhandle by mid afternoon. To the east of these
features, sufficient moisture and instability are expected to be in
place along with strong heating which could lead to storm
development by late afternoon. CAPE values upwards of 2000-4000 J/kg
are depicted in forecast soundings which is supportive for severe
storm development. Wind shear is quite weak so storms may struggle
to sustain their cores, which is not a surprise as we are under high
pressure. With initial updrafts, large hail will be the primary
threat but as storms collapse, damaging wind gusts will become the
threat with any storms. Anything that is able to form should begin
to dissipate by mid to late evening.

Not much changes on Tuesday, other than surface moisture will be
higher across the entire area and WAA is not forecast to be quite as
strong as Monday. Highs should still reach the mid 90s to 100s once
again as high pressure remains in place. Troughing across the
northwestern US should dig far enough south on Tuesday to open up
the Panhandles to PVA associated with a shortwave by peak heating
during the afternoon. Showers and storms are expected for form
across eastern NM and the western Panhandles during this time frame.
Coverage should be higher on Tuesday given that there is synoptic
scale lift, so more scattered storms are expected. Instability
values are not anywhere close to what they are expected to be on
Monday, but a strong storm cannot be ruled out with strong wind
gusts being the primary hazard. Any showers and storms that do form
should be able to sustain themselves for longer due to the synoptic
scale forcing so the threat for lightning and rain may continue into
the overnight hours. With the increase surface moisture and high
pressure over the region, overnight lows each night will be quite
warm in the 60s to 70s across the Panhandles.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Wednesday is forecast to be the hottest day of this upcoming week as
WAA at H850 peaks with models suggesting those temperatures may
approach 35 Celsius by late afternoon. These very hot low level
temperatures will lead to widespread surface highs in the 100s for
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The southwest surface wind will
usher in drier air for the central and west on Wednesday which will
aid in leading to the very hot temperatures. A dry line should set
up across the eastern Panhandles on Wednesday afternoon and that
feature will allow for the potential for isolated storms to develop
to the east of it during peak heating. Any storm chances are very
low, but if anything does form, there is a lot of instability to
work with so any storms could become severe.

The ridge of high pressure will become suppressed to the south of
the southern High Plains late this week into the weekend as upper
level troughing takes over across the northern tier of the US. With
westerly flow expected across the Panhandles, this will open the
door for shortwave troughs to move over the region which would
provide chances for afternoon showers and storms. In addition to the
shower and storm chances, temperatures will also cool down with the
stronger axis of hot H850 temperatures remains off to the west.
Details are uncertain, but severe storms could be possible if
convective ingridients are in place.

Muscha

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Surface winds
have become light at all sites this morning. Later this afternoon,
winds should become breezy once again generally from the
southwest. Later tonight, wind speeds may stay breezy at KAMA but
should decrease and become light for KDHT and KGUY.

Rangel


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ008>010-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...55