637
FXUS64 KAMA 261900
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
200 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Isolated severe threat in the extreme southeast late this
  afternoon (Collingsworth County).

- Concern increasing for multi day significant rain event and potential
  high end impact with assosciated flash flooding beginning on
  Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Watching for potential tstm development late this afternoon in the
extreme southeast portion of the CWA. Latest visible imagery showing
a few cumulus near Clarendon and current soundings indicating 1500-
1800 j/kg of CAPE. Some curvature noted in the hodograph but shear
and SRH values are still on the low side. If a storm does develop it
should move quickly out of the area. Otherwise...for the remainder
of the region we should have quiet weather through late Monday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Concern is increasing for a significant multi day rain event over
a large area and including all of our CWA. Previous rainfall the
last 2 days has saturated the soil and so concern is high that if
heavy rain occurs (which is looking more likely) then signficant
flooding/flash flooding is a distinct possibility. Tropical
moisture from the remnants of Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will get
caught up in the flow of a developing trough digging into the
southwestern states early next week. The combination of this
unseasonable surge of tropical moisture along with the approaching
strong trough in the southwestern states ...and given the already
saturated ground from heavy rains over the past couple of days...
suggests a strong possibility of significant flooding and flash
flooding. The latest NIMNAT call with WPC is showing they will be
putting a Day 3 and Day 4 Moderate Risk for excessive
rain....first over the southwestern states and then over a large
area from southeast AZ into most of the Panhandles region. Our
area has the most saturated ground of any of these areas due to
the recent heavy rains....so that will become a problem quickly.
Another concern, especially Tuesday evening will be the
possibility of some isolated severe weather. The NAM sounding for
Tuesday evening just north of Amarillo is showing a very moist
profile but with about 1800 j/kg of CAPE. Even more interesting is
the hodograph showing a nice curved area with ~ 50kt of 0-6km
shear and a SRH of around 310. This environment looks favorable
for mini supercells and will need to monitored closely. A couple
of days ago in a similar tropical environment... with just a
little better shear in the north, there was a funnel cloud
observed in the northern panhandle. This situation promises much
better shear than then and a better environment. Due to the event
still being 4 days out this is not etched in stone. However, with
the models trending in the same direction and having done so for
several days now, confidence is increasing in a potential higher
end event for our area. If these trends continue thru the weekeend
then a Flood or Flash Flood Watch will likely be needed by the
beginning of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions with no significant weather expected at the terminals
for the next 24 to 48 hours.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...54