840
FXUS64 KAMA 132318
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

-A few thunderstorms will be possible Friday and into the weekend
 where some could be severe.

-Triple digit heat may arrive as early as Monday and Tuesday of
 next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

As of the latest 18Z satellite observations, a perturbation in the
mid levels near the apex of a H500 low amplitude ridge across
central New Mexico is helping for lift and thunderstorm
development along the Sangre de Cristo range. Latest 18Z RAOB data
out ahead of the H500 level perturbation over KAMA shows ample
instability with average MLCAPE values between 1500-200 J/kg, with
effective shear and general steering flow aloft both under 20
kts. This will set the stage for a few individual thunderstorms
to develop, perhaps one or two developing within the TX Panhandle
later this afternoon under favorable mid level lapse rates.
Initial thunderstorm development could be more hybrid supercell at
first with more established updrafts, especially for eastern NM
and the western TX Panhandle with large hail and damaging winds
will be possible. Within the weak sheared environment, multi-cell
to linear complex of storms will be the main storm mode following
along an outflow and/or cold pool boundary later this afternoon
into the evening hours. This new storm mode in DCAPE environment
over 1500 J/kg across the central and eastern combined Panhandles
as the storms progress from west to east will be within an
environment where damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.
Overall thunderstorm coverage should dissipate between 10 PM and
1 AM from west to east.

As the main center of the H500 high pressure moves north into
southern New Mexico, the periphery of said feature will have H500
NW winds that will steer any additional daytime convection from
NM and CO into the NW Panhandles. Latest 13/12-18Z hi-0res data is
now showing much coverage of thunderstorms, mainly for the NW
Panhandles having the best chance due to more mid level
subsidence moving into the region from the SW> Nonetheless, strong
to damaging wind gusts will still be the main threat for any
storms that could be severe tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures
tomorrow across the Panhandles will be well into the 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

NW H500 flow as mentioned in the short term forecast discussion
will continue into Sunday. NW and western Panhandles will have
the best chance of a strong to severe thunderstorm where damaging
winds will be the main hazard to watch. Then the main SW-NE ridge
will build into the southern High Plains going into early to mid
next week. Under large scale subsidence, a few locations,
including Palo Duro Canyon may reach the 100-104 degree range for
high temperatures. A cold front mid week should drop temperatures
back into the lower 90s with the main weather pattern staying dry
through the end of the coming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Primarily VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 00Z TAF
period. Some LLWS may be possible for KAMA from about 04Z to 06Z.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the
combined Panhandles from now through 08Z. Confidence in any one
storm impacting the terminals is low and therefore have left out
of the TAFs at this time. Amendments may possibly be needed.

36

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...36