170
FXUS64 KAMA 041757
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1157 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to
  impact the OK Panhandle and far northeast TX Panhandle early
  Thursday morning.

- Mild temperatures and mainly benign weather expected Fri through
  Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Currently there is an upper level low pressure system sitting
over UT into eastern parts of NV. This system and its associated
trough are expected to move east-southeast and bringing rain
chances to the northeaster Panhandles and a cold front across the
combined Panhandles early tomorrow morning. Behind the front
northerly winds are expected to be blowing 15 to 25 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph. Highest post frontal winds are expected across the
western half of the combined Panhandles with a 10 percent chance
of gusts meeting or exceeding 40 mph right around sunrise and
before noon. Afternoon highs are expected to be held back in the
50s due to the cold front as well.

With much of the southern Panhandles falling under the left
entrance region of the mid to upper level jet, forcing for ascent
will be negative and the southern half to two thirds should remain
dry. The best chances for wrap around rain with very minimal
instability, less than 500 J/Kg MUCAPE will be across Beaver
County in the OK Panhandle. Mostly rain showers is expected but
cannot rule out some isolated thunder in the OK Panhandle. Rain
amounts are expected to be light with a lot of areas receiving
only a few hundredths. With the exception of the northeastern
third, northeast corner, of Beaver County where probabilities are
a bit higher, the rest of OK Panhandle and maybe Lipscomb County
in TX have a 10 to 30 percent chance of reaching 0.2" of rain.

Rain activity should taper off going into tomorrow afternoon and
the winds should decrease as well. Going into Thursday night and
Friday morning. Winds are progged to become light and variable
allowing for good radiational cooling allowing temperatures to
fall into the 30s across the combined Panhandles. Amarillo is
expected to have a Fri morning low around 36 while some areas in
the northwest from Dalhart to Guymon and Boise City may see
temperatures fall to around 32. Which should be the coolest
morning in the next seven days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Fri through Tue is looking fairly quiet and benign. Afternoon
highs in the 50s expected to persist into Sat with widespread
highs in the 60s returning Sun. Surface winds look to remain
light, less than 15 mph with periods where they are less than 10
mph. No rain is progged during this period as well. Although there
are some hints at some potential rain somewhere in the Panhandles
on Sat. If confidence does increase some isolated showers and
thunderstorms may need to be added to the forecast Saturday,
mainly in the late morning early afternoon time frame.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through about 12Z Thu. A
frontal passage late tonight into Thu morning will bring some
breezy and gusty winds to the Panhandles especially across the
western half of the combined Panhandles between 12Z and 20Z.
Behind this front, mainly after 10Z Thu, low clouds will have to
be watched for. At a minimum MVFR CIGS are expected for KGUY and
KDHT. But likely to bring some MVFR CIGS to KAMA as well. Watch
for the change from SCT to BKN decks for KAMA in subsequent TAF
issuances. There is a low chance for some rain showers to impact
KGUY between 12Z and 18Z Thu, while KDHT and KAMA are likely to
remain dry compared to KGUY.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03