799
FXUS64 KAMA 162353
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
653 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

-Severe storms for portions of the northern and eastern Panhandles
 will be possible this evening and tomorrow.

-Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon tomorrow with temperatures as
 high as 108 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Very warm temperatures across most of the Panhandles are expected
to continue throughout the short term forecast period. On the
periphery of the main H500 high pressure system, a few areas could
also see some thunderstorms. Starting later this afternoon into
the evening hours, latest satellite and H700 analysis showing dry
air encompassing most areas under the high pressure system. The
main perturbation over southern Colorado should move ESE into
Kansas and the far northern Panhandles later today. This could
generate a few storms to develop across the north central and
northeastern Panhandles where better H850-700 isodrosotherm
gradients exist to help with some lift along the perturbation.
With shear still anemic, coverage will be limited. DCAPE values
over 1500 J.kg on latest 18Z AMA RAOB suggest the potential of a
storm or two that could be severe later today with damaging wind
gusts being the main threat.

The heat will really be building in tomorrow across the area,
minus the far NW Panhandles where temperatures will be closer to
average. The remainder of the Panhandles will be in the 97-105
degree range where many areas could be over 100 degrees, including
Amarillo. Including today, a Heat Advisory has already been issued
for Palo Duro Canyon tomorrow where temperatures on the floor of
the canyon may approach 107-108 degrees. Compared to today, the
main H500 synoptic patter will be a bit more zonal. However, a
more notable perturbation will move across the central Rockies
generating thunderstorms into western Kansas by tomorrow
afternoon. These storms will then be propelled ESE into central
Kansas/NW Oklahoma and portions of the eastern Panhandles by
tomorrow evening. Average kinematics shows between the latest
data sets shows CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg across portions of
the east, but with still anemic shear. Closer to the surface, a
cold front will also be moving south, which should give lift for
thunderstorms to develop. Damaging wind gusts, along with large
hail potential with more robust updrafts along line of storms
moving southeast into portions of the eastern Panhandles will be
possible if storms reach severe limits. Most of our areas should
be on the western periphery of the developing MCS that should stay
to our north and east, but we are still watching the potential of
portions of the eastern Panhandles to be impacted. Thunderstorms
should quickly exit the region by tomorrow night after 05-06Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Zonal H500 flow will slowly transition to a second building ridge
of high pressure to move over the Panhandles in the latest 16/12Z
model and numerical guidance. With large scale subsidence, dry
conditions are expected to continue through the long term forecast
period. Temperatures will start near average behind the front on
Wednesday, but will quickly rise to above average for mid June
once again going later in the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of any
isolated storms in the area. There will be a 40-50 kt low level
jet with core developing at around 1800-2000 FT AGL and this is
leading to a period of LLWS late tonight and early Tue at all TAF
sites with the LLWS level being around 1200 FT. There is a 20
percent chance of a storm at GUY this evening an tomorrow evening,
although there will likely be more storms in the area in general
tomorrow. Chances are too low to include in the TAFs and will
amened as needed.

Gittinger

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ317.

OK...None.

&&

$$