512
FXUS64 KAMA 031924
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- A medium chance (30-50 percent) of showers/storms today across
most of the Panhandle, with the northwest Panhandle having lower
chances (10-20 percent).

- Continued low to medium chances (20-40 percent) of showers and
storms again tomorrow and Saturday for the western and central
Panhandles.

-Moderate to Major heat impacts will continue for the next several
days as we continue to remain 10-15 degrees above normal for this
time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Light cu field starting in the western Panhandles suggesting storms
this afternoon are right on track for the 3 to 4pm hour.  Best area
of instability looks to be along I-40 and up into the Borger area and
thus have the highest pops this afternoon.  Storms are still
expected to be small in size, but more scattered in coverage than
yesterday.  ML CAPE on 18z Sounding is a bit less than yesterday but
DCAPE is much higher and we did get some gusts over 50 mph yesterday
with the storms.  Looks like a strong inverted V sounding than
yesterday.  Typically would support lower chances for storms to
form, given ML CIN around 50-75 J/kg, but we do anticipated that
we`ll have some forcing assist from a shortwave this afternoon.
Main concern with the storms would be the wind threat, but still
have concerns that lightning could spark new fires on dry grasses.
Like yesterday, storms should be on a downward trend after sunset
and a quiet night tonight.

Friday, high pressure will start to retrograde a bit further west
towards the Mississippi Valley.  This will take our overall flow
more south vs southwest, and as a result the next round of showers
and storms would be expected more in the western to possibly central
Panhandles on Friday.  Mainly the focus will be from Amarillo to
Guymon and west of that line.  The main threats will still continue
to be gusty winds and maybe some localized heavy rain that could
lead to brief flooding.  Will note that areal coverage may be more
filled in and that would lower the threat for ignitions due to
lightning.  Again, storms should wind down after sunset and a quiet
night Friday night.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

High pressure on Saturday will be more amplified with flow even more
out of the south, that will really isolated the thunderstorm chances
to just the west, unless the center of the high can move further
east.  Still a medium chance of showers and storms for the western
Panhandles and as a result those storms will probably just have
gusty winds and heavy rain.  Sunday through Wednesday looks to be on
the dry side as the ridge is more pronounced over the area and the
moisture feed that we had been receiving is pushed west into NM.
Still will not rule out something clipping our area, if the models
have the ridge too far west.  Overall temperatures will still be
running on the hot side, but currently it looks like we`ll hold
below heat advisory levels.  That being said, the heat impacts could
still be on the major side, just given that it`s September and the
highs would usually be in the upper 80s and we haven`t really had a
break in these hot temperatures in a very long while.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with winds generally out of the south to southwest 10-15kts
and few to scattered mid to high clouds. We do expect some Cumulus
clouds to form in the next few hours and some will become showers
to storms. PROB30 at KAMA for highest confidence in the 21-03z.
Currently no mention at KDHT and KGUY as those sites will be dealt
with via amendments due to low confidence. May be some LLWS at
KGUY in the 05-12z time period, but will defer to 00z TAFs to
decide if it`s necessary.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89