574
FXUS64 KAMA 292343
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
643 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers with isolated thunderstorms are favored late tonight
  through Friday. There is a very low chance for flash flooding.

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night
  through Monday.

- Strong winds are likely on Monday and Tuesday with wind gusts
  potentially exceeding 50 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A trough is present from off the coast of California, stretching
down toward the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula while
there`s a ridge present from the Gulf into the Great Plains. At the
surface, a weak cold front has sunk into the northern Texas
Panhandle/Oklahoma Panhandle this morning which is expected to
slowly retreat northward this afternoon. Mid-level moisture will
move into the Panhandles ahead of the trough, and despite a lack of
forcing aloft, there may just be enough convergence at the surface
in order to force a few isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon
to around sunrise in the northern combined Panhandles. However,
confidence is very low due to the aforementioned lack of upper-level
support.

The upper-level trough will swing off to the northeast tonight into
Texas, and rain will work into the Panhandles from the south before
sunrise. Instability looks weak at best, but it may be enough to
support thunderstorms with the initial northward moving bands as
forcing first makes it into the area. Forecast soundings show a
deeply saturated atmosphere with precipitable water values between
1" to 1.5", which is above the 99th percentile for late October.
This will lead to up to 1" per hour rain rates with the initial band
of thunderstorms. Expect a more stabilized atmosphere after the
initial band which will lower thunderstorm chances and the rain
rates; expecting up to 0.50" per hour rates with the rain showers.
Given the relatively low rain rates, not too concerned about flash
flooding potential. With that said, there is still a very low chance
for flash flooding in urban areas or otherwise flash flood prone
locations. However, given the saturated soil from recent rain
events, increased runoff is expected which may lead to nuisance
ponding or localized flooding. Rain will come to an end from
southwest to northeast starting Friday afternoon to early evening,
and rain is likely to come to an end across the combined Panhandles
before Saturday`s sunrise.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A set of upper-level troughs will be present near or off the West
Coast to start Saturday with a subtropical jet extending into the
Southern Great Plains. Cloudy conditions should be present over the
Panhandles through at least the morning, if not afternoon, which
will help keep temperatures cooler than average. A weak shortwave
trough is favored to move through the area Saturday afternoon which
may force an isolated rain shower, but the atmosphere is likely to
be too stable to support thunderstorm development.

The set of troughs will progress eastward Saturday and into Sunday,
and they will begin to impact the Panhandles Sunday afternoon and
evening. A surface low will develop in eastern Colorado Sunday
afternoon which will cause the winds to strengthen. By 7 PM Sunday,
there is fairly good agreement that one of the two troughs will be
in eastern Arizona/western New Mexico while the other trough is
still digging down through Nevada. The forcing associated with the
easternmost trough could bring rain and thunderstorm chances into
the Panhandles as early as Sunday afternoon, but it will more likely
be Sunday night. Precipitable water values will be very high again
which will lead to efficient rain producing showers and
thunderstorms, but instability may again be limited which will limit
rain rates. There is only a 10-15% chance for rainfall amounts to
exceed 0.50" Sunday night into Monday given the lower rain rates and
expected high mean winds.

The second of the two troughs is expected to move in quickly behind
the first, and this trough has the potential to be a rather dynamic
weather system. A stronger low pressure system is favored to develop
Sunday night into Monday in eastern Colorado and track southeast.
Although some precipitation will be possible in the eastern
Panhandles Monday morning as the trough moves into the area, the
greater chances will be on the backside of the trough as moisture
wraps around the system which mostly favors the northwestern and
northern combined Panhandles. Again, despite high PWATs, not
expecting much instability which will limit rain rates.

Otherwise, with this stronger low pressure system, we will be
looking at a windy Monday and Tuesday--particularly behind the cold
front. There is currently a 30-60% chance for wind gusts to exceed
50 mph in the northwestern combined Panhandles on Tuesday and
Wednesday, with lower chances elsewhere.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected over the next 24 hrs,
leading to sporadic flight category changes. A thunderstorm
approaching KDHT this evening will have potential to impact the
site through approximately 02z, with heavy rain and small hail the
main hazards. As we reach the early morning hours and progress through
the day Friday, periods of light to moderate rain showers are
expected, although embedded weak thunderstorms can`t be ruled out.
Confidence is highest at KAMA and KGUY, but KDHT should see
additional showers at times as well. Ceilings and visibility will
deteriorate as a result, ranging from VFR to LIFR throughout the
period. Winds will swing out of the south-southeast at 5-15 kts.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...38