657
FXUS64 KAMA 110331
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1031 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Widespread high temperatures of 100-105 degrees expected
  throughout most of the coming work week.


- Monitoring a potential shift in the pattern that could bring
  storm chances to the western Panhandles Friday and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Very warm temperatures and continued very low chances (~10% chance)
of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring the far western Panhandles,
closest to the New Mexico stateline throughout the short term
forecast period. A gradual shift to the southeastern CONUS of the
broad H500 anti-cyclonic system with anemic flow will dictate the
weather pattern. Storms should develop each day through mid-week
along the NM high terrain and with aforementioned mid-level flow,
will struggle to reach the Panhandles. But cannot completely rule
out rain chances overall. With the center of the H500 High moving
southeast over the Panhandle, large scale UL subsidence, coupled
with decent H850 WAA entering the Panhandles, very warm
temperatures expected to continue. In particular for Tuesday,
heat headlines return for portions of the eastern and northeastern
combined Panhandles, along with Palo Duro Canyon. High
temperatures on Tuesday will range from 100-107 degrees across all
of the Panhandles, with similar temperatures expected on
Wednesday, perhaps a degree or two "cooler" in some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1027 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The main H500 anti-cylonic system as seen by the latest global model
data shows a decent moisture transport advecting moisture from
the Gulf of America into the High Plains on the western periphery
of mid level High pressure system. This should bring increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening
during peak diurnal heating. Where the most favorable moisture
axis sets up will be key to the highest POP chances overall.
Currently favoring the western Panhandles, but will watch and
update forecast accordingly as we get closer to the end of the
week into the weekend for those rain chances. High temperatures
will remain above average for mid August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period. Winds
will be out of the south at 10-20 kts with some higher gusts at
times. Skies should remain mostly clear with few to sct high
clouds later in the TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ003>005-
     008>010-015-020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29