645
FXUS64 KAMA 171058
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
558 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

- Showers and thunderstorms in the area will provide localized
  heavy rainfall with low risk for severe storms with damaging
  winds being the primary hazard through early Friday morning.

- Slightly above average temperatures are expected to return for
  the weekend into next week with pockets of triple digit heat
  possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Depending on where the front and any outflow boundaries from current
overnight activity set up later today, another round of scattered
storms could be in the cards for portions of the region once again
this afternoon-evening. This is especially true for the northern
Panhandles, where closer proximity to another shortwave disturbance
will maximize convective potential, while areas for the south and
central Panhandles will rely on boundary placement. The overall
environment will be comparable to today`s (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE &
15-25 kt bulk shear), meaning that strong to severe storms can`t be
ruled out, but aren`t likely. The potential for another round of
efficient rain producing storms in a moisture rich environment does
give some reason for concern towards localized flooding potential,
especially across the OK & NW Texas Panhandles where there are
localized 10-40% probabilities for rainfall totals to exceed 2".
PWATs of 1.25-1.75" will support very heavy rainfall rates in
strongest storms, especially if they move slowly.

However, as of midnight, the NAM has been one of the more accurate
models in keeping the bulk of heaviest rainfall to our north across
CO & KS, only clipping the OK Panhandle (Beaver, OK has already
measured 1"). Some of the 00z hi-res CAMs have persisted in
predicting some locally higher rainfall totals of 2-3" accumulating
between current overnight activity and this forecasted second round,
but many of these models were wrong about the placement of heaviest
rain currently ongoing, so we may not be as sensitive to additional
rainfall as previously thought. Those higher-end totals of the 2-3+"
variety aren`t looking too likely, but either way the signal is
still there for a few locations across our northern CWA to
potentially get heavy rain in a relatively short time frame later
today.

Friday appears to bring a much quieter end to the work week, but
will also be the beginning of our strongest warming trend of the
season. Models show high pressure centered over the ARKLATEX
creeping ever so slightly northwest over our area, bringing drier
and warmer conditions with it. Although nothing unbearable or out of
the ordinary, highs in the 90s will be widespread, with a few spots
in the upper 90s out east. Unfortunately, forecast data suggests the
following days will only double down on this return of true Texas
Summer conditions.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The best way to put it is simply that it will actually feel like
July next week, especially compared to the stretch of below average
temperatures we`ve experienced late June - early July. We can blame
this change of tune on a more pronounced dome of high pressure
finally building atop the region from the Deep South. While most of
the western to central portions of the Panhandles receive near
average highs in the mid to upper 90s this weekend, the eastern
Panhandles are favored for hotter temperatures, seeing medium (40-
70%) probabilities to reach 100 degrees. These probabilities spread
across more of the central Panhandles Mon-Wed, with some global
deterministic models climbing as high as highs around 105 in spots
on Monday (e.g. eastern Panhandles, Palo Duro Canyon, Canadian River
Valley). Chances to reach this higher end of heat potential are low
(only 10-40%), but are worth keeping an eye on moving forward. Drier
trends are expected to win out (<20% POPs), but the occasional
sporadic summer thunderstorm can`t be ruled out with "ridge rider"
disturbances and daytime heating any given day throughout the long
term.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Weather system continue to cause rain showers and thunderstorms
over the panhandles today impacting all terminals. Conditions
with these rain showers and thunderstorms will vary from MVFR to
below IFR depending on intensity of the rainfall. A few storms
may become strong to severe with powerful downburst winds mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Hail has a very low chance of
occurring but cannot be ruled out from the strongest storms.


&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98