Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
786 FXUS64 KAMA 080440 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 - Above average temperatures are expected to continue over the next week with near record highs expected Tuesday and Wednesday. - Strong to severe wind gust, lightning and heavy rainfall will be the main hazards as a cold front brings increased chances for storms to the area Wednesday into Thursday. - A trend toward a pattern change is expected to continue next week as cold fronts bring 50 to 60 percent chance for above normal rainfall to the area along with cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 A mid-upper level high center over the Panhandles Monday will continue to move NE and will be located near SE KS/SW MO by 00UTC Wed. This will improve chances for mountain storms to reach Cimarron County Tue late aftn and evening given moisture axis and instability present. NBM 20-30 POPs seems reasonable. Gusty winds and lighting would be the main hazards. The ridge will promote hot temperatures once again and Tuesday may be the hottest day of the week. Current forecasts are near or above record highs at all three climate sites. Similar to today, a more srly flow (rather than sw) will help keep temps from reaching advisory levels. A S/WV traversing the NRN plains will break down the high center and cause it to re-postion to the Desert SW by 18UTC Wed. Models agree a weak cold front associated with the trough (likely helped along by TSTM outflow the night before) will push into the area on Wednesday. Moisture pooling along the front is forecast to lead to a band of PWs exceeding 1.5 inches. Global models favor the northern Panhandles for the position of the stalled front and therefore the highest moisture and instability, however several CAMs including RRFS favor more of a central to southern location by aftn. Generally, leaning south is the way to go here with most of these boundaries and therefore will bring better POPs south a bit faster than the NBM would indicate Wed Aftn. With the weakening ridge overhead, wind shear will be weak and storms will be disorganized. Very localized heavy rainfall and strong to severe wind gusts will be the main hazards along with lighting. Wouldn`t rule out landspouts given large amounts of boundary interactions that will likely occur. Frontal boundary position will also have implications regarding which if any climate sites will reach record highs on Wed. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 Thursday forecast is very uncertain given unknown impacts from previous day storms and high uncertainty regarding the position of the frontal boundary and old outflow boundaries after the dust settles. That said, Thursday appears to have more favorable parameters for an organized severe convective event than Wednesday as the ridge weakens, NW flow becomes better established, S/WVs look stronger, moisture axis remains good and for the first time in a long time, notable wind shear is indicated by models. Unfortunately, confidence may not improve until we see the whites of its eye regarding the scope of Thursday`s convective potential and this will bear watching to say the least. NBM shows most of the area has a 15 to 40% chance of seeing 1/2 inch or more event total rainfall Wed-Thu and if anything this has slightly trended up the last few days. The mid-upr level high center will be back on the move through the weekend and the center may reach the SE US by Monday, but models are not in good agreement. In fact, the 12Z GEM was much slower with the transition east and kept it centered over the area on Monday. In general, above normal temperatures and isolated storms is forecast for the weekend. The models continue to show a significant front with associated POPs early next week but timing remains days apart. The 6-10 day CPC outlook indicates a 50-60% chance for above normal precip which suggests majority of the model ensembles are on board with producing some beneficial rainfall with a frontal system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026 No aviation concerns this TAF cycle. Afternoon and evening storms are expected to remain northwest of DHT and GUY on Tuesday. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MJG LONG TERM....MJG AVIATION...MJG