Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
645 FXUS64 KAMA 171058 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 558 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms in the area will provide localized heavy rainfall with low risk for severe storms with damaging winds being the primary hazard through early Friday morning. - Slightly above average temperatures are expected to return for the weekend into next week with pockets of triple digit heat possible. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Depending on where the front and any outflow boundaries from current overnight activity set up later today, another round of scattered storms could be in the cards for portions of the region once again this afternoon-evening. This is especially true for the northern Panhandles, where closer proximity to another shortwave disturbance will maximize convective potential, while areas for the south and central Panhandles will rely on boundary placement. The overall environment will be comparable to today`s (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE & 15-25 kt bulk shear), meaning that strong to severe storms can`t be ruled out, but aren`t likely. The potential for another round of efficient rain producing storms in a moisture rich environment does give some reason for concern towards localized flooding potential, especially across the OK & NW Texas Panhandles where there are localized 10-40% probabilities for rainfall totals to exceed 2". PWATs of 1.25-1.75" will support very heavy rainfall rates in strongest storms, especially if they move slowly. However, as of midnight, the NAM has been one of the more accurate models in keeping the bulk of heaviest rainfall to our north across CO & KS, only clipping the OK Panhandle (Beaver, OK has already measured 1"). Some of the 00z hi-res CAMs have persisted in predicting some locally higher rainfall totals of 2-3" accumulating between current overnight activity and this forecasted second round, but many of these models were wrong about the placement of heaviest rain currently ongoing, so we may not be as sensitive to additional rainfall as previously thought. Those higher-end totals of the 2-3+" variety aren`t looking too likely, but either way the signal is still there for a few locations across our northern CWA to potentially get heavy rain in a relatively short time frame later today. Friday appears to bring a much quieter end to the work week, but will also be the beginning of our strongest warming trend of the season. Models show high pressure centered over the ARKLATEX creeping ever so slightly northwest over our area, bringing drier and warmer conditions with it. Although nothing unbearable or out of the ordinary, highs in the 90s will be widespread, with a few spots in the upper 90s out east. Unfortunately, forecast data suggests the following days will only double down on this return of true Texas Summer conditions. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 The best way to put it is simply that it will actually feel like July next week, especially compared to the stretch of below average temperatures we`ve experienced late June - early July. We can blame this change of tune on a more pronounced dome of high pressure finally building atop the region from the Deep South. While most of the western to central portions of the Panhandles receive near average highs in the mid to upper 90s this weekend, the eastern Panhandles are favored for hotter temperatures, seeing medium (40- 70%) probabilities to reach 100 degrees. These probabilities spread across more of the central Panhandles Mon-Wed, with some global deterministic models climbing as high as highs around 105 in spots on Monday (e.g. eastern Panhandles, Palo Duro Canyon, Canadian River Valley). Chances to reach this higher end of heat potential are low (only 10-40%), but are worth keeping an eye on moving forward. Drier trends are expected to win out (<20% POPs), but the occasional sporadic summer thunderstorm can`t be ruled out with "ridge rider" disturbances and daytime heating any given day throughout the long term. Harrel && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Weather system continue to cause rain showers and thunderstorms over the panhandles today impacting all terminals. Conditions with these rain showers and thunderstorms will vary from MVFR to below IFR depending on intensity of the rainfall. A few storms may become strong to severe with powerful downburst winds mainly during the afternoon and evening. Hail has a very low chance of occurring but cannot be ruled out from the strongest storms. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...98