510
FXUS64 KAMA 231829
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
129 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Summer heat wave continues with impactful temperatures near or
  above 100 degrees through at least Monday.

- Low to medium chance (20-40%) for scattered storms capable of
  gusty winds across the northwest and central combined Panhandle
  this afternoon into this evening.

- Potential pattern change could provide slightly cooler
  temperatures and increased rain opportunities this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The last full week of August begins with a continued focus on
impactful heat, as well as afternoon-evening showers and storms.
High temperatures are expected to stay roasting in the 99-109 range
for a majority of the Panhandles today and tomorrow, thanks to the
smothering influence of high pressure aloft. On top of the heat,
breezier southwest winds of 10-20 mph will unfortunately leave
elevated fire weather conditions for a majority of the forecast area
today.

Today`s rain chances rely on a shortwave disturbance impinging upon
the 597 dam H500 area of high pressure centered to our west over New
Mexico. In the mid-levels, a swath of better 700mb theta-e is
progged to be in place atop the northern Panhandles when the
shortwave arrives out of eastern CO & NM, which should initiate
scattered convection this afternoon and evening. Although highest
coverage of storms is favored across the north (20-40% POPs),
isolated to scattered pop-up storms could develop with daytime
heating and subtle areas of sfc convergence across the south and
central Panhandles as well (10-20% POPs). Per usual, relatively dry
surface conditions would support strong downburst wind gusts as the
primary concern with any stronger storms, which should also keep the
heavy rain potential on the lower side. However, PWATs >1.00" are
supportive for locally heavier downpours, but even high-end rainfall
totals are greatly favored to remain below 0.5" today.

Tomorrow we`ll be looking at a similar setup as we keep an eye on
convection moving out of CO & NM, which should mostly survive the
trip to the northern and far western Panhandles (20-50% POPs). A
boundary will be in play for additional storm development elsewhere,
but could also keep temperatures below 105 for most of our northern
counties. Ahead of the boundary, heat advisories and perhaps even an
extreme heat warning may be needed, especially south of I-40. We
will have to monitor short range model guidance and observational
data to see just how far south the boundary ultimately progresses.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Models continue to heavily suggest that more rain opportunities and
slightly less hot temperatures are in store for the middle of the
week, but don`t get your hopes up for a widespread drought buster or
true cool down. The region will still be solidly dominated by high
pressure through Tuesday afternoon, with triple digit heat holding
steady. This pattern is set to evolve though, as long range data
shows troughing over the Great Lakes region sagging southward
Tuesday night through late week, which would suppress high
pressure further southwest over El Paso. This synoptic pattern
would allow northwest flow aloft to provide better disturbances
and weak fronts for the region, especially for the northern
combined Panhandles. Ensembles mostly agree this would increase
rain chances each evening-overnight Tue-Thu. Despite favorable
deep layer moisture (PWATs 1.0-1.5"), most members suggest
rainfall totals wouldn`t be terribly impressive (mostly 0.50" or
less any given night). Temperatures are progged to decline to the
90s Wed-Thu, but not for long as widespread triple digits are
favored to resume through the end of the week.

The system Tuesday night is projected to be the strongest of the
week and have abundant moisture in tow. Precipitation probabilities
continue to rise for the entire Panhandles (30-70%), with medium
range models now hinting that an organized MCS could push over much
of the region from northwest to southeast. Some discrepancies exist
among models, but forecast 20-30kt 0-6km shear along with 1000-2000
J/kg MUCAPE generally spell low-end potential for severe wind gusts
with any organized storms Tuesday night. Although the aforementioned
trend of lighter rainfall is still the more likely outcome, models
such as the RRFS are placing swaths of much heavier rainfall
wherever this hypothetical line of storms ultimately passes. If you
don`t receive any rain Tue night, Wed night is the next best
opportunity with only slightly lower probabilities of precipitation
(20-60%).

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Isolated to scattered storms are expected once again during the
afternoon and evening today, with highest probability for impacts
being across our northern terminals (KDHT and KGUY). Outflow from
these storms could produce strong wind gusts along with sudden
wind shifts. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest before
shifting to the west-northwest behind a boundary overnight. VFR
sky conditions are favored to prevail at all sites.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-
     012>015-017-018.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ019-020-
     317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38