Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
568 FXUS64 KAMA 280516 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1216 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 - Low chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon. - Low to medium chance for thunderstorms Friday with a low chance for these storms to become strong to severe. - Warmer and drier weather over the weekend. - Chances for rain showers and thunderstorms return for next work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 A weather system continues to impact the panhandles tonight even as it moves to the northeast. This is causing mainly light rain showers with the occasional thunderstorms in the northeastern panhandles. These will come to an end later this morning as the weather system continues to push to the northeast. This will allow for a dirty ridge to build across the panhandles for much of today bringing more stable conditions. There will still be some lingering moisture and instability that will allow for a low chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. This ridge will not last as it will be pushed out of the region by the arrival of the next weather system for Friday. The path that this weather system is taking will make it negative in orientation. This normally brings an increase in the amount of shear and instability it can produce. However the center of this weather system will be far to the west of the panhandles which will counter this effect. This makes it questionable just how much instability and shear will be present across the panhandles for Friday. Right now these are looking to be fairly modest for such a weather system at 1000-2000 J/Kg of CAPE and 20 to 40 kt of shear. This would still allow for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms but with more limited coverage. Still such values will allow for a low chance for stronger to even severe thunderstorms. If the system moves more favorable towards the southern plains then it could lead to better dynamics and thus more and stronger storms. Conversely if it continues in a less favorable trajectory then the panhandles could see even less and weaker convection. This forecast is still likely to change as the finer details of this weather system become more certain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 This weekend will most likely see the weather system push off to the east leading to a more southwesterly to westerly flow across the southern plains. This flow has the potential to transition to a broad ridge over the course of the weekend. Such a flow will bring mostly drier air to the panhandles leading to more dry weather. Still if some moisture manages to linger across the panhandles this weekend it can still lead to afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. Such an occurrence will be far more miss than hit though so dont bank on any rain this weekend. Towards next work week moisture has an increasing chance to work its way back across the southern plains. This would lead to the return of daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms each afternoon of each day. There are some hints that a weather system can form late next week which opens up an opportunity for more organized thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 A weather system continues to impact the panhandles this morning causing rain showers and thunderstorms mainly in the northeastern panhandles. These are impacting KGUY on and off and will persist til the mid morning hours when they come to an end. This morning is seeing low clouds across the panhandles impacting all terminals with MVFR to IFR conditions. These low clouds will lift and scatter late this morning for all terminals leading to VFR conditions. There is a low chance for afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms today with none expected to impact any terminal. Winds will be fairly weak at all terminals for the next 24 hours. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98