256
FXUS64 KAMA 172318
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
618 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- High-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions
are expected today and Monday across the Panhandles due to windy
conditions and very low relative humidity values.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily from
  Tuesday through at least Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

As of 8:10 this morning, a dryline is set up across the
western/central Panhandles with already breezy winds to the east of
the dryline and strengthening winds west of the dryline. Very poor
overnight recovery was observed west of the dryline, with the Romero
mesonet site only seeing relative humidity (RH) as high as 16%. The
dryline will quickly mix east through the morning as the shallow
moist layer observed on the 12z AMA sounding (moist layer 700 feet
deep) will quickly mix out. Elevated to low-end critical fire
weather conditions have been locally occurring since as early as 8
AM, and this is expected to spread in coverage through the day as
the dryline mixes east and a surface low strengthens late this
morning and through the afternoon. Owing to 20-35 mph sustained
winds and wind gusts up to 45 mph along with extremely low relative
humidity as low as 4%, high-end critical to extremely critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of the CWA.

On the other hand, depending on where the dryline sets up by
mid/late afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
across the far eastern Panhandles. The most likely position of the
dryline will be oriented from south-southwest to north-northeast,
splitting Collingsworth county and clipping eastern Wheeler county.
However, in the past few dryline set ups, we`ve observed something
closer to the NBM 75th percentile dew points/wind vectors verify. If
this were to happen once again, this would keep Collingsworth
county, most of Wheeler county, and eastern Hemphill county east of
the dryline. Thus, SPC`s placement of the marginal and slight risks
seems quite reasonable. Forecast soundings east of the dryline show
an environment marked by around 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 42 kts of
effective shear, and DCAPE of around 1500-2000 J/kg; all very
supportive of supercells capable of producing severe weather. If a
supercell were able to develop, wind gusts up to 75 mph and 3"
diameter hail would be possible. In fact, wouldn`t be surprised if
hail could exceed 3" at its most mature. If a supercell is able to
persist toward the 23z-02z timeframe when the nocturnal LLJ starts
kicking in, a tornado threat could very well develop, but this
depends on the supercell also being in our CWA, which comes back to
the placement of the dryline and where storms initially develop. One
factor arguing against thunderstorms developing is neutral or
slightly negative 700mb theta-e advection, and the potential for a
mis-timed lobe of vorticity introducing subsidence. In summary,
Chances are low for thunderstorms to develop along the dryline, but
if one is able to develop, then significant severe weather (2"+
hail/75+ mph winds) will be possible.

Winds will stay breezy across the Panhandles tonight as the dryline
retreats once again. Similar to last night, RH recovery west of the
dryline will be very poor while recovery east of the dryline will be
good to great. A weak cold front will move into the northern
Panhandles tonight which will aid in some decent RH recovery.

An upper-level trough will swing from the Intermountain West into
the Central Plains tomorrow and take a negative tilt. The right
entrance region of the jet streak will favor the development of a
deep surface low in northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado.
As this surface low deepens, the aforementioned cold front will
retreat northward as the winds south of the front strengthen. The
dryline will push eastward through the day as the weather system
matures. The dryline is favored to push into the extreme eastern
Panhandles or western Oklahoma by the late afternoon. Winds will
become windy, especially for May`s standards, as a ~994mb surface
low develops and a stout 35-45 kt 850mb jet develops across the
Panhandles. This will support sustained winds between 25-35 mph with
gusts up to 50 mph. Forecast soundings, and supported by
probabilistic guidance, suggests at least a low chance for wind
gusts to exceed 50 mph in the northern combined Panhandles. RH
values in the single digits are expected across the board, and RH as
low as 4% is favored as temperatures soar into the upper-80s to
upper-90s, with a few locations potentially reaching triple digits.
All of these factors will favor extremely critical fire weather
conditions for most of the Panhandles.

Adding to the concern is a seasonably impressive cold front that
will move in to the Oklahoma Panhandles from the north as early as
the late afternoon/early evening hours. There will be a potent post-
frontal LLJ (40 to nearly 50 kts at 850mb) at least in the evening
hours, but weakening through the night. Additionally, there are
surface pressure rises of 4mb/hour over 3 hours and ~3mb/hour over 6
hours, further suggesting increased strong wind potential. Will not
be surprised if some 58+ mph wind gusts occur in the northern
Panhandles behind the front Monday evening. Due to the sudden wind
shift and strong post-frontal winds, this exacerbates fire weather
concerns should a wildfire start on Monday and persist into the
evening. The timing will be important: most guidance brings the
front in from the mid-evening through early overnight hours.
Meanwhile most guidance brings it into Amarillo in the very early
morning hours of Tuesday (12 AM - 3 AM). With similar fronts in the
past (strong post-frontal winds, much cooler airmass), we tend to
see these cold fronts move in quicker than most guidance suggests.
Will be monitoring for this potential, and it may be good to
subtract a few hours from the timing of the median.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The shortwave responsible for the significant fire weather concerns
will move off into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, but broad
southwesterly flow aloft will remain from the Southwestern US
through the Plains and into the Midwest as another upper-level
trough positions itself in the Western US. Although details about
the large-scale pattern change from Tuesday through Friday, what
remains fairly constant is southwesterly flow aloft with Pacific
moisture flowing into the region. Temperatures will be cool on
Tuesday in this post-frontal airmass, but gradual recovery (in
temperatures and low-level moisture) is expected as we progress
through the week. Embedded shortwaves in this pattern will favor
daily shower and thunderstorm chances from Tuesday through at least
Saturday. However, it is likely that at least one of those days will
be too subsident or overworked from clouds/lingering
showers/thunderstorms from the previous day to support additional
showers and thunderstorms. But those details will be worked out on a
scale of 1-2 days out, not in the long-term.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

All terminals look to stay VFR through the present package as
they continue to stay well west of the present dryline. Surface
winds, instead will be the more impactful weather element as
terminals are likely to report gusts upwards of 35 to near 40kt
through sunset with some low chances of low-level wind shear seen
overnight. One thing to watch will be the potential for a weak
frontal boundary to push into KGUY later tonight as it could
decouple the winds and create much stronger low-level wind shear.
Otherwise, Monday looks to be repeat of today with dry conditions
and gusty surface winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1058 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A dryline is currently pushing east through the Panhandles as winds
are intensifying and relative humidity (RH) values are plummeting.
Peak sustained winds will be 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Winds east of the dryline will be roughly southerly (could be south-
southeasterly or south-southwesterly depending on how close/far away
from the dryline the location is). Relative humidity will be as low
as 4%, but widespread single digit RH values are expected west of
the dryline. The dryline is expected to set up across the far
eastern Panhandles by mid/late afternoon. This will result in RFTIs
ranging from 6 to 8 across the Panhandles with ERCs above the 90th
percentile. This puts most, if not all, of the Panhandles in play
for high-end critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions
today.

Winds will stay breezy overnight with very poor RH recovery west of
the dryline (20% to 40%). A cold front is favored to work into the
northwestern Panhandles tonight which will also help with RH
recovery but for a fairly small area. The cold front will retreat
northward tomorrow as the dryline begins pushing east. Like today,
the dryline will push eastward through the morning and likely settle
in the far eastern Panhandles, near the TX/OK state line, or western
Oklahoma. Winds will be stronger on Monday than they are today, at
25-35 mph (potentially 30-40 mph in the northern combined
Panhandles) with gusts up to 50 mph. There is at least a low chance
(10-40%) for wind gusts to exceed 50 mph in the northern combined
Panhandles. RH values will drop into the single digits across the
area with RH as low as 4% for the central/southern Texas Panhandle.
This will lead to fairly widespread extremely critical fire weather
conditions with RFTIs between 7-8 for most of the area. Will not
rule out an RFTI of 9, or maybe even briefly 10 if RH and winds
overachieve.

Of compounding concern is that a cold front will move in from the
north in the evening to overnight hours. A quick wind shift and
strong northerly winds behind the front are likely, especially in
the northern Panhandles. This will cause hazardous conditions and a
quick shift in direction for any wildfire that may be ongoing.
Timing of the front will be important, and is somewhat uncertain at
this time. Most likely scenario is that it`ll move into the Oklahoma
Panhandle Monday evening, then into the Texas Panhandle in the late
evening and overnight hours. However, similar fronts (much cooler
airmass, windy post-frontal conditions) tend to come in quicker than
the majority of the guidance suggests.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001>020-317.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night
     for TXZ001>020-317.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001>003.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday night
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...11