921
FXUS64 KAMA 250504
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

 - Medium to high rain and thunderstorms chances for most of the
   Panhandles on Sunday and Monday, with also low chance for
   flash flooding, especially for the NW Panhandles.

 -Potential for more rain chances by the end of next work week,
  favoring the southern TX Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 24
2026

A weather system is moving from the desert southwest across the
Great Plains both today and Monday. This has already brought a
significant fetch of moisture across the panhandles. The moisture
within this fetch has around 1 to 1.25 in of PWAT which puts it
near or at record daily high for this time of year. It is
important to note that we are in the dry season so it doesn`t
take the largest amount of moisture to be so climatologically
high. As it stands this moisture will allow any rain shower or
thunderstorm that does form to produce heavy rainfall. However,
this rain will not be the equal of the rain events we had in
september when the PWAT was near to 2 inches. With this ample
moisture present over the panhandles the passage of this weather
system will bring multiple round of rain showers and
thunderstorms. One of these round is already impacting the western
panhandles this morning. This round will continue to shift to the
east and enter the central panhandles during this mid morning
hours. There is some question on how long this round of rain
showers and thunderstorms will persist. Some of the older guidance
indicated it would cease during the afternoon while newer guidance
indicates it will persist through until the evening. This
distinction is important as an earlier end time may allow for
instability to build during up for the evening round of rain and
thunderstorms. If it doesn`t stop then instability will not be
able to build up for the evening round. As for why this is
important the environment will have ample shear and is only
lacking instability for the formation of strong to severe
thunderstorms. So if we build up that instability that opens the
door to such storms that can produce damaging winds, large hail,
and even tornados. As it stands it is most likely for the current
round of rain showers and thunderstorms to persist so it makes the
prospect for any strong to severe storms very low. In either case
the second round of rain showers and thunderstorms will most
likely generate in the evening and pass across mainly the western
to central panhandles. This round seems most likely to wane Monday
morning leading to a small calmer period. Then the last round of
rain showers and thunderstorms generate Monday afternoon and
persisting through to Tuesday morning. This then will come to an
end once the weather system departs on Tuesday. Owing to the
ample moisture being present through the event it means heavy
rain will be a threat. For areas that see multiple round of rain
showers and thunderstorms there will be a threat for flash
flooding. This is most likely in the western panhandles were the
chances of seeing rounds of rainfall are the highest with a
lesser threat for the central and eastern panhandles. For overall
rain amounts the western panhandles can range from 1 to 2 inches
of accumulations while the central to eastern panhandles range
from nothing to as high as 1 inch. This will not be a solid shield
for rain amounts owing to the shower nature of the heavy rain. So
instead there will be a broad area of lower amounts with strips
of higher amount within where the rain showers or thunderstorms
impacted. Beyond this the passage of the weather system will bring
cooler temperatures to the panhandles with highs in the 60s to
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be a dry period following
the departure of the weather system and the setup of a zonal to
southwest flow. Temperatures during this time will most likely see
a rebound back into the 70s to even low 80s.

Then for Thursday into next weekend a large scale trough has
better chances than not to deepen across western CONUS. This will
allow for moisture to return across the panhandles while
introducing broad scale lift. As such the end of the week into the
weekend will more likely be a period of wetter weather with rain
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A weather system is moving across the panhandles bringing rain
showers and thunderstorms to all terminals. Currently this system
is spreading rain showers and thunderstorms in the western
panhandles. By the mid morning these will have spread to the
central panhandles and by the afternoon the eastern panhandles. A
further round of thunderstorms is forecast to impact the western
and central panhandles during the late afternoon to evening hours
of Sunday. Low cloud decks will accompany the rain showers and
thunderstorms most likely at the MVFR to IFR levels. Icing will
be a threat within the cloud decks with the passage of this
system. Heavy rainfall from the rain showers or thunderstorms can
also cause MVFR conditions. There is a very low chance for
stronger storms Sunday afternoon with damaging wind gust being the
main threat, although hail and even tornados cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98