704
FXUS64 KAMA 012333
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
533 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Precipitation continues to look bleak despite a couple of upper
level systems passing by this coming week.

- Upper level systems Tue and again Wed, likely to bring some
elevated to critical fire weather conditions to the Panhandles,
mainly in western to maybe central combined Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Mar
1 2026

As temperatures warm up this afternoon, a more definitive frontal
boundary should become more apparent, especially as cooler H85
temperatures move in from the northeast. Warm air is progged to
expand across West Texas this afternoon and even encroach on the
southern TX Panhandle. When this occurs the light northerly winds
being seen currently across the area will shift easterly behind
the front and westerly in front of the front. Still expecting a
decent temperature gradient this afternoon between the southwest
and northeastern Panhandles.

The north to northeastern combined Panhandles should see
temperatures drop to around 32 degrees if not below going into
tomorrow morning. This front is expected to give us closer to
normal overnight lows but still a few degrees above. For Monday
afternoon, some uncertainty remains for the highs as the cooler
air behind the front shifts east. Warmer air is expected to expand
across eastern New Mexico. This will cause a temperature gradient
between the western and eastern combined Panhandles for Mon
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1144 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Despite continued 10 to 30 percent chance for PoPs given by the
NBM to the combined Panhandles, it is looking more and more likely
that the entire area is going to miss out on rainfall with this
first system this week. Even the eastern TX Panhandle, where some
of the higher PoPs around 30 percent exist, may still not even
measure any rain.

About a week ago, models showed this mid to upper level low
potentially bringing us rain for Tuesday night. Now models are
showing this low taking a track too far north for any
precipitation to be realized along with a dry slot overtaking
pretty much the entire FA. The downside to this is a continued dry
trend and return of fire weather. A leeside surface low created
by this system will introduce some gradient winds potentially up
to 20 to 25 mph for Tuesday afternoon. Also, it will introduce a
surface trough allowing for some low dewpoints in the teens in the
western Panhandles. Add to that progged highs in the lower 80s
across the southern TX Panhandle and RH values drop to the upper
single digits.

As the aforementioned surface low travels southeast over the
Panhandles. Another cold front is progged to move in on the
backside of this low late Tue into Tue night. This front is
expected to bring slightly breezy north winds Tue evening. This
front is expected to aide in dropping afternoon highs on Wed into
the lower 70s, about 10 degrees cooler than Tue.

This is the first dip in the work week roller-coaster as
temperatures are then progged to pick back up to the upper 70s to
lower 80s once again on Thu. A secondary upper level system is
progged to approach the area Thu, this time bringing slightly
breezier surface winds that may potentially be in the 30 to 35 mph
range. Similar to Tue, RH values will drop in the west adding to
some fire danger to the central and western Panhandles. Also,
these conditions will precede another cold front that should bring
temperatures down for Fri. Will be watching the Thu system as it
could still bring some precip chances to the eastern combined
Panhandles. The NBM has given some slight chance to chance PoPs to
the eastern Panhandles for Thu night and Fri. With the current
persistent trends of systems dry slotting the entire area, would
hold off on betting on any rain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the majority of the 00Z
TAFs at all TAF sites. The only exception could be at KAMA between
11-12Z through 14-15Z where the potential for MVFR cigs exist. VFR
should then return to all TAF sites past 15Z to the end of the
TAF period. Winds will be out of the north at 5-15 kts veering to
south and southwesterly at 5-15 kts past 15Z and continuing
through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...29