650
FXUS64 KAMA 121718
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

 - Warm weather expected to continue through Tuesday but there is
   a slight chance of a few scattered thunderstorms this
   afternoon/evening over portions of the southern Texas
   Panhandle.

 - Tuesday afternoon still looking for the possibility of severe
   weather over the central and eastern panhandles. Additionally
   localized areas or swaths of heavy rain possible with these
   storms.

 - Showers and thunderstorms appear probable on Wednesday but
   still uncertainty on where the most vigorous storms develop
   later in the day. At this time the central and especially
   eastern panhandles have the highest chance for seeing storms.

   &&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Lightning activity appears to be on the decrease associated with the
showers and thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico. The expectation
is for this activity to diminish near the state line but a couple of
stray showers may move into our western CWA for a short period of
time this evening before dissipating. Plains low level jet has
kicked in and extends from western TX into western KS. Current area
VAD wind profiles showing 850mb winds of 45kt at MAF and AMA and
55kt at DDC. Sfc dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s across
most of the panhandles and portions of eastern New Mexico.

Monday looks to be another warm day across the region with highs
likely reaching the upper 80`s and lower 90s in favored areas
(Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, areas in the eastern
panhandle). Subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow could
produce a few widely scattered thunderstorms Monday evening from
just north of Clovis to near Spearman. Confidence in this scenario
is not high but it is a possibility.

Tuesday is looking to becoming a little more active as these subtle
short waves encounter a more moderately unstable air mass. Higher
resolution forecasts are showing scattered thunderstorms
developing in mainly the eastern half of the panhandles. SPC has
continued the slight risk for this area and WPC has a marginal
risk for excessive rain as PWAT values will be increasing as
moisture returns north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Lightning activity appears to be on the decrease associated with the
showers and thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico. The expectation
is for this activity to diminish near the state line but a couple of
stray showers may move into our western CWA for a short period of
time this evening before dissipating. Plains low level jet has
kicked in and extends from western TX into western KS. Current area
VAD wind profiles showing 850mb winds of 45kt at MAF and AMA and
55kt at DDC. Sfc dewpoints are generally in the mid 50s across
most of the panhandles and portions of eastern New Mexico.

Monday looks to be another warm day across the region with highs
likely reaching the upper 80`s and lower 90s in favored areas
(Canadian River Valley, Palo Duro Canyon, areas in the eastern
panhandle). Subtle perturbations in the southwesterly flow could
produce a few widely scattered thunderstorms Monday evening from
just north of Clovis to near Spearman. Confidence in this scenario
is not high but it is a possibility.

Tuesday is looking to becoming a little more active as these subtle
short waves encounter a more moderately unstable air mass. Higher
resolution forecasts are showing scattered thunderstorms
developing in mainly the eastern half of the panhandles. SPC has
continued the slight risk for this area and WPC has a marginal
risk for excessive rain as PWAT values will be increasing as
moisture returns north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The main upper low and trough in the western U.S. will begin to
swing through the area Wednesday which will lead to much higher
chances of rain over the eastern half of the panhandle. At the same
time a cold front will be pushing down from the north and by evening
should be moving into the region. This will enhance showers and
thunderstorms as there will be a general area of low pressure across
southeast CO/southwest KS and other boundaries to provide focus
for storms. As the cold front moves through and winds become
northerly the precipitation should begin to move to the east and
slowly out of the area. Even by Thursday morning there could still
be activity in the far southeastern portion of our area.

Due to the clouds and precip Wednesday should only see high temps in
the 70s through the area. By Thursday high temperatures will be in
the upper 60s over the western third of the panhandle and by Friday
high temps will likely be in the upper 50`s to low 60`s all areas.
Will see low temps by Saturday morning in the mid to upper 30`s
over many areas and low 40`s in the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours.
Breezy, southwesterly winds continue this afternoon and portions
of the evening across the region. Wind gusts today could still
reach up to 35 kts, but winds should die down by sunset. Isolated
thunderstorms are forecast to set up west of the TAF sites this
evening and chances for any site to be directly impacted are still
low (10%). Trends will be monitored to see if any of this activity
could progress further east. If so, amendments will be necessary.
Low level wind shear has a lower chance of occurring tonight as
winds shouldn`t have much issue mixing down fully to the surface.

Rangel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...55