008
FXUS64 KAMA 161049
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
549 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

- Hot to very hot temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday
across the Panhandles. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro
Canyon today from 1 PM to 8 PM.

- There is a very low chance for thunderstorms late Tuesday
afternoon across the eastern combined Panhandles. If thunderstorms
do develop, they could become strong to severe.

- Elevated thunderstorms will be possible behind a cold front,
primarily across the northern combined Panhandles, Thursday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

An upper-level ridge will attempt to build into the southern Plains
today with embedded shortwave troughs rounding the edge of the
ridge. Temperatures today will warm into low-90s to upper-90s, with
some of the typical hot spots reaching to 100 degrees or slightly
above. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Palo Duro Canyon given
the expected triple digit temperatures the potential for humidity to
stick around in the Canyon due to backing surface winds, leading to
a heat index of around 105 degrees. Otherwise, showers and
thunderstorms may develop as a previously mentioned shortwave moves
toward the Panhandles later in the afternoon hours. Although a few
CAMs do depict this activity, guidance suggests that there could be
dry air being brought in around 700mb and some modest capping in
place which would prevent thunderstorm development. For this reason,
will leave PoPs to less than 10%. However, if those factors turn out
to not be an issue, thunderstorm development will be possible across
portions of the Panhandles with uncertain coverage. There would also
be favorable instability and wind shear for strong to severe
thunderstorms.

A more potent shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles Tuesday
morning resulting in the development of a seasonably potent surface
low... potentially as low as 990mb... in northeastern New
Mexico/western Texas Panhandle. As a result, very dry air will move
in to at least the western Texas Panhandles as a surface trough gets
pushed eastward throughout the day. Temperatures across the
Panhandles will warm into the upper-90s to low-100s in the Texas
Panhandle, and low-90s to upper-90s across the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Once again, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Palo Duro
Canyon.

Will have to watch the area east of the surface trough in the late
afternoon for thunderstorm development as temperatures reach the
convective temperature and surface convergence along the surface
trough maximizes. However, a major limiting factor is that several
weather models show dry air advection around 700mb, even stronger
than today, which would likely act to suppress thunderstorm
development. As such, have limited PoPs in the Texas Panhandle to
15% given the outside chance that the dry air aloft doesn`t pan out
to be as oppressive as currently anticipated.

A cold front will move in from the north in the evening and
overnight hours. There appears to be more favorable low-level
moisture behind the front, and as such, some elevated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible particularly across the Oklahoma
Panhandle.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The Panhandles will be behind in a post-"cold" frontal regime as a
shortwave trough departs the Plains. Given the weak nature of the
cold front, temperatures across the Panhandles should be near
average for mid-June.

An upper-level ridge will move from the Four Corner states on
Thursday through the Southern Plains by Saturday and dry weather and
temperatures warming well into the 90s will result. The ridge will
move into the Southeastern US on Sunday as an upper-level trough
digs into the Western US. This will allow for moisture from the Gulf
and the Pacific to move back into the Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF period.
Southerly winds in the 10 to 15 kt range expected, especially
after 18Z. Skies should start off clear with maybe a few high
cumulus clouds during the heat of the afternoon.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36