608
FXUS64 KAMA 181859
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
159 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

 - Heat continues for the next several days.

 - Chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/early evening

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A few higher based cumulus clouds are noted on satellite imagery
at midday just to the north of Amarillo. Otherwise clear skies
and breezy southwesterly winds gusting between 25-30kt are noted
at mid day over the area. Temperatures are on the way to 100 or
above in most areas. A Heat Advisory continues over roughly the
eastern half of the Panhandles and temps at mid day are already
103 to 104 in Collingsworth County.

Regional observations at mid day show low pressure in western KS
with a boundary extending southwest into the northwestern OK
Panhandle. With afternoon heating isolated showers/storms could
develop for a short time before dissipating. Higher
dewpoints/theta-e air are going to wrap around the low and behind
the boundary and drop south into eastern NM and far west TX by
tomorrow morning. The boundary will setup across the central
panhandle area and could provide a focus for widely scattered
storm development tomorrow afternoon. Other storms are forecast
to form over the mountains of CO/NM and move into the northwestern
panhandle areas later in the afternoon/early evening. SPC has
updated their Day2 Outlook to include more of the forecast area in
a Marginal Risk on Wednesday. This includes most of the OK
panhandle and the northwestern TX panhandle. Forecast soundings
are showing inverted V profiles to the south of the boundary
while to the north of the boundary better moisture and easterly
low level winds are contributing to upwards of 2000-2500 j/kg of
CAPE and just over 30kt of 0-6km shear.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Interesting forecast for Thursday as the heat is expected to
continue. However....will need to watch for widely scattered
storms as a weak shortwave approaching from the north will promote
some upward motion in conjunction with a residual boundary in the
area. Confidence on this scenario is not high at this time but
will bear watching. The northwest half of the area should see some
slightly cooler temps behind this boundary while hot temps
continue to the south and east of it. Starting Friday through the
weekend the mid level high pressure will expand over the mountain
west region with ridging extending into southern Canada. Temps
will climb a few more degrees as the heat continues and
undoubtedly more heat headlines will be required during this time.
Most areas will be over 100 with 105-109 in the hottest locations
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Breezy conditions this afternoon as southwest winds gust to
25-30kt across the panhandles. VFR conditions expected through
this forecast period with winds diminishing back to 12-14kt by
early this evening. Overnight some LLWS is possible over portions
of the panhandles but will subside by early Wedensday morning.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ004-005-008>010-
     014-015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...KP