933
FXUS64 KAMA 171104
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
604 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Impactful heat is expected today with widespread low-90 to
  around 100 degree temperatures today across the Panhandles. A
  Heat Advisory remains in effect for Palo Duro Canyon where
  temperatures are expected to reach 105 degrees.

- There is a very low chance for thunderstorms in the eastern
  Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon, but a greater chance for
  thunderstorms in the northern combined Panhandles Tuesday
  evening. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
  with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A hot day is in store for Tuesday as an upper-level trough
approaches the Panhandles. A surface low will develop in the
vicinity and intensify through the day as a surface trough pushes
east through the Panhandles with very dry air working into the
area. Given that, and very warm 850mb temperatures for most of the
Panhandles around 23C-24C at 12z warming to 34C-35C by 00z,
temperatures across most of the Texas Panhandle will warm into the
upper-90s to low-100s. Clouds and/or a cold front is favored to
move into the northern combined Panhandles in the mid to late
afternoon which will help keep temperatures in the low to mid-90s.
A Heat Advisory will remain in effect for Palo Duro Canyon as
temperatures are expected to reach around 105 degrees.

Despite a surface trough/dryline potentially ending up in the
central and eastern Texas Panhandle by mid-late afternoon along
with some weak forcing from weak positive vorticity advection,
there is a very low chance for thunderstorm development in that area.
The primary limiting factor that is the advection of dry air
between 850mb to around 700mb which tends to shunt thunderstorm
development, and that is favored to stick around through the
afternoon and evening. The better chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be along and behind the cold frontal passage as
more favorable low-level moisture will move in, along with
stronger forcing. A few elevated strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible with the primary hazards being damaging winds and
large hail.

Expecting dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures
across the Panhandles on Wednesday behind the cold front, with
temperatures largely in the mid-80s to around 90 degrees.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 133 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An upper-level ridge, initially in the Southwestern US and
Southern Rockies on Thursday, will build and progress eastward
to the Southern/Central Plains on Friday, then the Ohio Valley/Midwest
on Saturday. This will result in a period of dry weather with
temperatures generally ranging from the mid-90s to around 100
degrees across the Panhandles. Later on Saturday we will see an
upper-level trough dip into the Western US which help bring in
mid-level and low-level moisture from the Pacific and Gulf,
respectively.

With the trough situated over the Western US from Sunday through
at least Monday, the Panhandles will have southwesterly flow aloft
and embedded perturbations within the flow will introduce daily
chances for thunderstorms. Additionally, average to slightly below
average temperatures will be favored due to increased low-level
moisture and increased cloudiness in the afternoon.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF
period. The one caveat will be the potential for thunderstorms,
mainly for KGUY after 00Z Wed. Confidence is low enough at this
time to not mention thunder in the TAF. Thunder may need to be
added in subsequent TAF issuances if confidence increases.
Southerly winds will shift to the north for KDHT and KGUY ahead of
a push of cooler air behind a cold front. Northerly winds for the
entire combined OK/TX Panhandle are expected after 00Z Wed.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...36