Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
792 FXUS64 KAMA 302329 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 529 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 -A cold front will bring high temperatures potentially back into the 30s by Thursday. -Looking at our next chance of winter precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 As of the latest 18Z obs across the Panhandles, temperatures continue to remain below freezing with temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Not too much more of a climb likely for temperatures today with strong low level CAA in place. Latest hi- res guidance continue to show scant moisture tonight ahead of the main mid level perturbation entering the southern High Plains late tonight into tomorrow morning. With enough lift ahead of the trough axis to counteract (-) vorticity advection, we could have flurries and a few light snow showers for mainly the far NE Panhandles tomorrow morning before the main H500 trough exits the region. Measurable snow at this time reaching an inch is less than 10 percent at this time. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 30s in the northern Panhandles to mid 40s in the southern TX Panhandles. Overnight low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will range from the mid teens to the lower 20s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Dry conditions will continue through mid week as NW to W H500 flow ahead of our next mid level trough bring mostly clear skies. As of the latest 30/12Z model and numerical data, an H500 positive tilted trough moving east out of New Mexico may bring additional winter precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday. Decent H700 (+) theta-e advection into the region ahead of the main trough axis, along with good low level DGZ profiles may result in latest ensemble probs approaching 30% on the TX/NM stateline for an inch of snow potential by Thursday evening. Many elements to watch with trends of the tracking of the system and moisture profiles, so check back for the latest updates to the forecast as we get closer to Thursday. What we are more confident in by Thursday is the another shot of cold temperatures with highs on Thursday struggling to get out of the 30s. Temperatures over the long term forecast period will be a roller coaster theme once again with high temperatures near average Tues-Wed before dropping well below average for Thursday. High temperatures will then rebound back to near average with dry conditions to end the long term forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 458 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 MVFR CIGs will potentially impact KAMA through about 12Z. KDHT may also see some MVFR CIGs early in this period, but confidence is much lower and the lower CIGs may not last as long. Expect south to southwesterly winds through about 18Z. After 18Z a surface boundary will move into the northwestern to western half of the combined Panhandles bring in northerly winds behind it causing a wind shift for all three terminals. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...36