651
FXUS64 KAMA 190605
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

 - Heat portions if not all the Panhandles for the entire forecast
   period.

 - Low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening
   with damaging winds as the primary concern with any storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Four Corners with
northwest flow in tact for the Panhandles.  Upper level trough over
the Great Lakes region will push a weak frontal boundary over the
Panhandles this afternoon.  That boundary is expected to stall out
over the central Panhandles.  Given the hot temperatures and decent
convergence near the surface we could see some afternoon storms
develop along that boundary.  Right now there`s not much that we
expect with any of those storms, other than strong downbursts due to
strong inverted V profiles.  Behind the front we do anticipate
typical northwest flow storms off the NM/CO mountains that may latch
on to a shortwave, progged to move through in the late evening to
overnight hours tonight.  This will enhance the POP chances across
the northwest, and we may even get some storms develop along that
surface boundary if it tracks far enough south, as a few models are
suggesting some pop up storms in the southwest and over the Amarillo
area. Storms may linger through the overnight, but should decrease
in intensity through the night, and dissipate by early Thursday
morning.

For Thursday with the high shifted just a little bit to the north
and east, it does try to put us into a bit more of a northerly flow,
but not completely, and there may be a subtle wave out of that
northerly flow, but moisture off the mountains is not expected to
track along that upper level flow and move over the Panhandles.
However, we are looking at residual outflow boundaries that could be
left over from the previous day and as they collide during afternoon
heating, and potentially with the subtle wave under the upper level
flow, we could get storms to develop from those conditions.  Right
now CAM`s are very uncertain with a mixture of storms that try but
fail, to maybe storm clusters in the southwest Panhandles.  Overall,
the chances look lower on Thursday, but depending on Wednesday`s
activity could increase/decrease those chances.

Overall, while winds will be pretty tame, less than 20 mph, the
fuels continue to be very dry and stressed due to the heat and lack
of moisture, and with low RH values each day in the mid teens to mid
20 percent range we will have elevated Fire Weather conditions.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

High pressure will gradually shift further east and that will
generally bring down our precipitation chances overall.  Highs will
continue to be in the upper 90s to mid 100`s.  We may even peak with
2 to 3 days in a row of widespread low to mid 100`s on Sunday
through Tuesday.  That being said, as we get into Sunday evening
onward, we`ll be watching the  position of the high as it might be
far enough southeast to allow for some return westerly flow across
the northern Panhandles.  That would increase the precipitation
chances and could allow for some temperature relief, at least for
the northern Panhandles.  While it does appear that the Panhandles
will be dry overall on most days, we can`t rule out some pop up
storms just due to how hot it may get that we could reach a
convective temperature and get a pop up show on its own.  Confidence
is low <10%, but still not out of the question.  Overall, a very hot
and mostly dry extended is in store.  Lastly, the elevated Fire
Weather conditions mentioned in the previous discussion, will
continue for the extended forecast.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours.
Some LLWS at KDHT and KGUY in the 06-12z time range out of the west
southwest around 40kts. Otherwise winds starting southwest and
gradually coming around the clock in the 7-12kt range out of the
northeast by the end of the TAF period.  KAMA looks to see the wind
shift more northerly after 00z as the frontal boundary moves far
enough south.

Weber

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ010-014-015-018>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89