511
FXUS64 KAMA 300528
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Very hot temperatures will continue today before a weak front
  provides cooler temperatures for the weekend.

- Thunderstorms will be possible today and tonight, and
  potentially Friday as well.

- Triple digit heat may return early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Heat, heat, and more heat has been the recurring weather headline
for the Panhandles over the past week or so... well today is no
different. High pressure is still solidly in place, meaning
afternoon highs are set to reach 100-109 for a majority of the
forecast area. Despite a 10-15 mph south breeze, low 60s dew points
in the eastern Panhandles will make heat index values climb to 105
or higher even if temperatures don`t reach 105. Thankfully, tomorrow
should be far more bearable as high pressure gradually degrades atop
the High Plains. A weak cool front will sag southward early Friday
as a result, dropping temps 5-10 degrees across the board (mid to
upper 90s with a few triple digits).

Storm chances will be present again this evening into Friday, as a
weak disturbance within upper level flow initiates another round of
convection on the high terrain of CO & NM. CAMs depict additional
scattered showers and storms developing along outflow boundaries
from this activity. This trend puts most of the CWA in play for 20-
30% rain chances Thu night through Fri morning, although many
locations will still be left high and dry. While quality of
instability remains in doubt (some models showing MLCAPE between 500-
1000 J/kg while others show 1000-2000 J/kg), strengthening northwest
flow aloft will help shear values reach the 20-30 kt range.
Considering these parameters in conjunction with DCAPE values of
1000- 2000 J/kg, strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts
and small hail can`t be ruled out today-tonight.

Friday`s storm chances will greatly hinge upon the position of the
front through the day, as most models show it progressing south of
the I-40 corridor by the afternoon-evening. This would likely leave
the best axis of moisture and lift on the southern and western
fringes of the Texas Panhandle, unless the front`s progression is
stalled significantly. Either way, 20-40% storm chances are forecast
for the aforementioned areas. Most rainfall will be light to
moderate with both opportunities, but there could easily be isolated
pockets of 0.5-1.0" rain totals with any stronger storms.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

August begins with the false hope of cooler temperatures to come, as
Friday`s cold front should drop high temps in the low to mid 90s
across the Panhandles. Global guidance shows the dome of high
pressure shifting slightly westward over the desert southwest during
this weekend, allowing a brief pattern shift to northwest flow atop
the region. This pattern is typically more favorable for
precipitation, but lack of moisture behind the front will limit us
to a 10-20% chance for some lingering showers/storms on Saturday
across the western TX Panhandle. But overall, this weekend should
hypothetically hold some of the best temperatures over the next 7
days.

All good things must end though, as most models unfortunately show
high pressure meandering back towards the Plains early next week.
Probabilities heavily favor the return of triple digit heat as a
result, lasting through at least mid next week. Low chances for
spotty summertime storms will return as well (15-20%), but the Euro
and GFS are both trending drier compared to this week in terms of
deep layer moisture availability. Ensemble mean precipitation
outlooks are holding fairly steady from run to run, with overall
unimpressive amounts of rainfall being brought to the region
(<0.5" through next week).

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Winds will be out of the south at 10-15 kts to start the period,
until outflow boundaries from storms turn winds around the dial
through the early morning hours. Stronger gusts will be possible,
and amendments may be needed at KDHT and/or KGUY to include rain/thunderstorm
mentions. Winds will settle out of the southwest today at 10-20
kts, with VFR sky conditions prevailing until our next round of
storm chances.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ003>005-007>010-
     013>015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38