Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
153 FXUS64 KAMA 310647 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 - Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening in the western and southern Texas Panhandle. Storms may be strong to severe with wind gusts being the main concern. - Triple digit heat may return early next week. - Storms may return to the northwest Panhandles Monday through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Lingering showers tonight across the northern and central Panhandles that may manage to clip part of the southern Panhandles before sunrise. Nothing significant just brief moderate rain and maybe some wind gusts 25 to 35 mph. The showers tonight will have several outflow boundaries which should linger somewhere in the southern Panhandle around the I-40 area. Friday morning we do expect northerly winds behind a very weak cold front associated with the back side of a low swinging across the Midwest/Great Lakes region. South of the outflow boundary we do expect southerly winds to still be in play, and as the north winds on the back side of the low collide with the boundary to the south, we should get enhanced convergence at the surface and decent lift to get showers and storms to develop. Additionally, we`ll be looking at very high LCL`s and inverted V soundings that will probably yield DCAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range with ML CAPE values in the 750-1500 range. Shear will be reasonable so the severe threat for damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern. The key issue is, where this will occur. This boundary if far enough south would put most of the showers and storms south of I-40 and maybe only the far southern parts of Randall and Deaf Smith county may be involved. But there are some suggestions it will be further north, and storms could develop right over Amarillo. PWAT`s of roughly 1.40" and fairly limited storm motion would support torrential rainfall with these storms. Should storms end up south of I-40, there still is expected to be a second round of storms coming off the high terrain of NM that should move into at least the southwest Panhandles, maybe even stretch to Amarillo. As the storms are expected to cluster into a possible MCS during the evening this could become an efficient rain producer for the southwest Panhandles. Saturday northerly flow will keep things dry for the most part, but lingering outflow with more storms that form off the high terrain to the west could lead to another round of showers and storms, mainly along the TX/NM border and it could linger in the southwest Panhandle as well. Right now only about a 20 percent chance these storms happen so it still may be a quiet day on Saturday. Should they occur, like on Friday, the areas that storms develop could have strong damaging winds with ample rainfall as well. Due to the fact that most of the Panhandles will be under a more northerly flow on Saturday it appears that most, if not all the Panhandles will manage to stay below 100, ending the streak. And that may even end today with the front moving through, but it will still depend on timing if certain areas can still reach 100. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 We`ll continue to watch the high pressure over the Four Corners and we`ll get daily thunderstorms off the high terrain of NM, but depending on the overall upper flow, or if we can get any disturbances embedded will enhance or suppress those storm chances. Right now the focus would continue to be the typical areas, like the northwest Panhandles, but with enough help maybe they extend further into the Panhandles. There is some hints midweek that maybe the upper ridge will brake down from a stronger disturbance to the north, and that could change quite a bit and expand the area of precipitation chances. But there is certainly a divergence in agreement with the long range models as to if we`ll still stay under this hot and dry high pressure system, or get a potential breakdown that leads to increased precipitation chances. So with that the pops in the extended will be about par for the course, either dry, or slight chance to chance in the northwest Panhandles. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Thunderstorms over KDHT to start the TAF period will lead to possible MVFR conditions, but should quickly return to VFR by 7z. Elsewhere, mostly VFR conditions for the TAF period, but KDHT and KAMA could see degraded conditions due to thunderstorms after the 21z period. Prob30s have been noted for this time. Winds will vary through the TAF period but mainly be in the 10 to 15kt range, but may gust up to 25kts at times, as we do expect a weak frontal system to bring more northerly winds in the 12 to 18z time period. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...89