325
FXUS64 KAMA 270502
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1202 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Concerns are increasing for a multi-day significant rain event
  with potential high end flash flooding impacts beginning on
  Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Today, an upper level ridge is expected to be centered over the
Southern Plains and the FA leading to afternoon highs in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Precipitation chances are not expected to pick up
until tomorrow night when an upper level low pressure deepens over
the San Fran Bay area, and the upper level ridge shifts east putting
the FA under southwest flow aloft. The approaching trough will also
bring forth some slightly cooler afternoon highs Monday, more in the
mid 80s. Also, Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific is expected to
make landfall on the Baja Peninsula which will help feed sufficient
atmospheric moisture into the southwest flow aloft, transporting
additional moisture aloft into NM and into the Panhandles late
overnight tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

All eyes are on the next progged upper level trough
coming across the Desert Southwest and combining with what will
become tropical depression Polo late Monday night into Wednesday
night. This particular set-up, is expected to lead to a flash flood
potential to the combined Panhandles. The central to western
combined Panhandles currently have at least a 40% probability to see
flash flooding within 25 miles of a given point, between 7 am
Tuesday and 7 am Wednesday. Rivers and creeks will need to be
watched closely as well with the recent rainfall seen over the past
few days with more to come. NBM PoPs are currently sitting between
80 and 95 percent during this 24 hour period. Slightly higher than
the previous NBM run of 70 to 85 PoPs. NBM Probs for at least 2
inches are sitting around 20 to 50 percent. However, there are some
outliers that would suggest that some localized areas in the
Panhandles could potentially see 4-8 inches with this system.

Depending on when and if the low pressure system coming from the
west stalls out, rain along with a flooding potential could last
well into Thursday morning. Besides the rain, cloud cover is
expected to stay along with cooler H85 leading to afternoon highs in
the 70s to maybe lower 80s Tue through Fri. Highs in the lower to
mid 80s may return until next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions at KAMA, KDHT, and KGUY expected through 06Z
tomorrow. Winds stay below 10kts but change from northwesterly to
easterly over the forecast period.
&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...52