653
FXUS64 KAMA 190544
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

- Mid to upper-90 degree temperatures are expected across the
  Panhandles from Thursday through Saturday, with Friday being the
  hottest day. Some locations may reach or slightly exceed 100
  degrees.

- Thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, evening, and
perhaps portions of the overnight hours from Sunday through at least
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Quiet weather is expected today and Friday as an upper-level ridge
builds over the Panhandles and a trough digs into the Northwestern
US. A broad surface low will develop over the Intermountain West,
and with a surface high stationed over the Southeastern US, a
somewhat steep surface pressure gradient will develop over the
Panhandles resulting in diurnally-driven breezy winds. The
combination of large-scale subsidence from the ridge, 850mb
temperatures around the 90th percentile, and breezy winds enhancing
boundary layer mixing, temperatures will warm into the mid to upper-
90s on Thursday. As the ridge moves more overhead and temperatures
aloft warm further, the heat will peak on Friday. Widespread mid to
upper-90 degree temperatures, with the southeastern TX Panhandle and
the north-central TX Panhandle and northern combined Panhandles a 30-
60% chance to reach or exceed 100 degrees. Meanwhile, some of the
local hot spots such as portions of the Canadian River Valley and
Palo Duro Canyon have a 70-95% chance to reach or slightly exceed
100 degrees.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

The previously discussed upper-level ridge will continue to push
east as the Western US trough begins to dig. Saturday looks to be
another hot and dry day similar to Thursday, but we will begin to
see moisture advect into the Panhandles from the Gulf and Eastern
Pacific on Sunday.

From Monday through around Thursday (depending on how long the
trough stays in the Western US), the Panhandles will stay under
southwesterly flow aloft. Given persistent moisture advection and
the flow of embedded shortwaves, thunderstorms will be possible each
day. There may be some level of strong to severe thunderstorm threat
on any given day, but it will depend on several factors including
magnitude of instability/wind shear and shortwave timing.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR conditions are currently expected. However, there will be a
low chance for fog to develop around KAMA later tonight, but have
left mentions of low visibility out of the TAF at this time due
to low confidence. Otherwise, 15-20 kt winds are expected today with
gusts between 25-30 kts.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52