937
FXUS64 KAMA 311834
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
134 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms expected mainly across the far southern
  and southwest Panhandles this afternoon. Storms may be strong
  to severe with wind gusts being the main concern.

- Triple digit heat expected early next week and this would lead
  to hazardous conditions for anyone performing strenuous outdoor
  activities during the hottest portions of the day.

- There is a slight chance (20 percent) for storms mainly across
  the northwest Panhandles Monday through Wednesday and lighting
  and strong wind gusts associated with these will produce
  hazardous conditions for outdoor activities.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Prefrontal trough has moved through the area and the entire
Panhandle is seeing NW or N winds. The was having no impact on
dewpoints which were in the mid 60s well behind the boundary.
Lower temperatures are more due to clouds and continued isolated
weak showers than the boundary and it was already 103 at the
Dozier and Wellington WT Mesonets at 18 UTC. So the heat advisory
seems on track in the far SE. Seems increasingly likely that
clouds will preclude AMA breaking the 10 day consecutive 100
degree day which was tied yesterday, but stay tuned. The actual
front appears to be may be near Hartley to Pampa to Canadian at
this point, but it is extremely diffuse. Stronger storms today
should occur along the better convergence near the pre-frontal
tough late this afternoon and CAMs have been trending slightly
south with this activity. That said, outflows pushing north from
the initial developing could lead to storms developing closer to
Amarillo. A small complex of storms is expected to push SE out of
NM this evening and this is where the highest POPs are shown
(likely ranges). It is unclear if the eastern edge of this
activity will reach Amarillo where POPs are 30-40 percent and the
gradient from higher POPs to the SW and much lower to the NE is
pretty tight right across the city.

A nice break in the triple digit heat is expected on Saturday
behind this weak front. Highs are expected to remain in the low
to mid 90s, which is still slightly above average. There is a
moisture axis remaining across the far WRN CWA and there is a
chance of thunderstorms in this area as a disturbance rotates
through the region on the backside of a strengthening low centered
across IL. The upper high center will position itself more across
AZ through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The mid-west low will move east across KY early next week which
allows the ridge to build east across the central and southern
plains once again. This will lead to increasing highs once again
with widespread 100s forecast by Monday. Currently Monday has the
highest probability of 100+ degree temperatures for the entire week
at around 50 percent in the east and west Panhandles, but over 90
percent for north-central and SE areas per the NBM. Ridge roller
S/WV disturbances will encounter a decent monsoon moisture axis next
week leading to chances for storms despite the hot temperatures. NBM
shows slight chances for rain assoc with this activity Tue and Wed
evenings favoring the NW Panhandles. POPs are only around 10 percent
by Thursday, but models are diverging by end of the week regarding
the strength of the ridge and a possible weakness developing over
the Panhandles (per the last few GFS operational runs). If this were
to occur, we can expect better rain chances and slightly lower
temperatures for the end of next week, but there is not a large
contingent of ensemble member on board for this at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Main AVN concern is for TSTMs in the area. Only AMA has high
enough probs to mention as chances are very low at GUY and DHT.
The bulk of the storms are expected to remain SW of Amarillo this
evening, but the NE edge of a small complex will be close enough
to include Prob30. Outside of storms, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ020.

OK...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gittinger
LONG TERM....Gittinger
AVIATION...Gittinger