154
FXUS64 KAMA 311058
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
558 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Patchy fog is expected this morning, which could be locally
  dense leading to reduced visibilities.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances likely return Sunday night into
  Monday. Strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail
  will be possible.

- Winds on Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front may gust over 50
  mph at times, favoring the northwest Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

After a cloudy, misty, and locally foggy start to the weekend, an
overall quiet Saturday should be in store. Showers have mostly
dissipated as the upper level system responsible for Friday`s
rain exits the region. This afternoon should be pleasant, with
lingering clouds gradually clearing and highs in the 60s. Winds
will be out of the south at 10-15 mph with slightly higher gusts.
A tightening pressure gradient Sunday will help winds increase out
of the south, sustained at 15-20 mph gusting up to 35 mph.

Forecast trends remain on an upward trajectory for storm chances
Sunday night, as the next in our series of upper level troughs
passes over the region. Ridging in between systems will give way to
southwest flow, allowing for a nice surge of theta-e to be advected
back to the Panhandles by the aforementioned breezy south winds.
Models have become increasingly aggressive suggesting that vigorous
lift with the trough`s arrival should help generate a line of storms
across the eastern Plains of New Mexico, that would reach the
Panhandles late Sunday evening - overnight. Should this line of
storms survive the trip, substantial wind shear is forecast to be
in place (40-60 kts 0-6km), and should interact with continually
improving moisture (1.0-1.5" PWATs & 60s dew points). Even though
instability is still looking modest (MUCAPE 500-1500 J/kg), this
may be enough to support organized updrafts within the line.
Despite the line arriving overnight and daytime temperatures only
reaching the 60s to low 70s, these storms could still be capable
of producing strong/severe hail and wind gusts. Storm motions
would be quite fast (east-northeast at 40-60 mph), which should
limit the flash flooding threat but not completely negate it.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As the trough axis translates east of the Panhandles, a brief dry
slot and stout 120kt upper level jet streak within northwest flow
will dive over the region, allowing a strong cold front to push
southward Monday night. This front will have a tightly packed
pressure gradient behind it, along with decently stacked jet
dynamics. While this supports cooler temperatures being advected to
the Panhandles (highs in the 50s & 60s, lows in the 40s), it will
also usher in strong wind gusts. Additional wrap around showers
and dense cloud cover are expected behind the front as well,
especially for the northern Panhandles (30-60% POPs). Even with
these limiting factors, it is likely that northwest winds of 20-30
mph gusting up to 45 mph will continue through much of the day
Monday into Tuesday. Favorable conditions behind the front could
still help gusts as high as 50-60 mph mix down to the surface if
everything comes together just right (favoring the northwest
Panhandles), so be prepared for a blustery start to the work week.

Looking towards the middle of next week, models are in fair agreement
that a closed low will translate across the Plains in the vicinity
of the Panhandles. This system shouldn`t equate to more rain chances
thanks to the cold front eventually purging the region of any
meaningful moisture. Temps should be near or below seasonal
averages, with drier air mostly staying in place for a few days.
Morning lows could dip into the 30s, but freezing conditions don`t
appear likely (mosquitoes across the Panhandles rejoice). Winds will
thankfully diminish, spelling a recipe for some nice fall days.
Looking at long range ensemble members shows that next weekend could
be another window of active weather opportunities, but confidence
remains low for now.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A weather system is departing the panhandles but ample low level
moisture remains in place. This is currently causing low ceilings
down to VLIFR. It is also causing misty to foggy conditions with
light drizzle with MVFR visibilities. Conditions will improve
going into the afternoon with VFR returning to all terminals.
Tonight low level clouds can build back in with LIFR ceilings.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98